River Flood Warning 37, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
908 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...Flash Flood Threat This Evening...

Convection has become focused from roughly Seymour, IN to the east
end of the Louisville Metro and SE through Bardstown toward Lake
Cumberland. This is happening in the remaining overlap between the
most abundant moisture with PWATs over 1.8 inches near the I-65
corridor and the CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg over the Bluegrass. Slow-
moving storms are producing heavy rain over what is already some of
the hardest hit area, as it almost mirrors this morning's
convection.

The window for strong convection will close within the next couple
hours as we lose instability, but any flooding impacts will continue
well into the night. Flash Flood Safety will need to be a major
focus once again.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...Flash Flood Threat Continues Through Tuesday...

After a brief lull, isolated showers and storms have once again
fired around the region. Expect coverage and intensity to uptick
through the rest of the afternoon and evening as storms will be in a
moderate/strongly unstable environment (~2500 J/KG ML CAPE). The big
driving factor to the instability is dew points in the mid to upper
70s in spots beneath modest (6/6.5 C) mid level lapse rates.
However, deep layer shear is lacking, so expect storm modes to be
pulse in nature. The weak deep layer flow will result in slower
storm motion, so any slow moving or training storms will have the
ability to put down intense rainfall rates. Precipitable water
values look to range close to 2" through this evening so flash
flooding is still a concern, especially in areas that have already
seen heavy rainfall recently. In addition, gusty winds and perhaps a
wet microburst or two are possible with the strongest storms (DCAPE
values around 1000-1100 J/KG currently in SW CWA).

Hi-res models have isolated to widely scattered coverage everywhere
across the CWA, however they have been particularly keying in a bit
more on the Bluegrass region this evening into the overnight. It
appears that this is along the old boundary, or a new boundary
formed from differential heating between this morning's heavy
rainfall and drier areas to the east. Regardless, seeing enough in
the data to expand the Flash Flood Watch another tier or so of
counties northeastward to cover this threat. This area hasn't seen
much rainfall yet, but with rates, and the ability to train the
threat seems reasonable. Also, extended the Flash Flood Watch
through 00z Wednesday as it looks like several rounds of potentially
heavy rainfall are still possible. Really concerned if we get
another round of heavy rain on the narrow corridor that saw very
heavy rain this morning! Turn Around, Don't Drown! messaging will be
hit hard again, especially for the overnight threats. Thanks to
JKL/ILN/IND for collaboration on the watch expansion/extension.

Also, included Logan/Simpson in the expanded Watch (thanks OHX/PAH)
to account for convective chances increasing through the overnight
and into Tuesday ahead of a subtle wave/disturbance. Just looking at
a Nam forecast sounding for tomorrow in our SW CWA near Bowling
Green tomorrow morning, the atmospheric profile shows 2+ inch PWATs
in the presence of 2000-3000 J/KG of MUCAPE in addition to weak deep
layer flow. That would be concerning considering the already low
Flash Flood Guidance values (<2" 1 hr in spots) for the region due
to the weekend heavy rainfall. As a result, felt it was best to
extend the time of the Watch in that area as well. Overall, we may
need to extend the watch even farther into Tuesday night at some
point.

One last thing to mention. Heat indices are around 100 degrees in
localized areas at times due to the very high dew points. Think this
should mostly be transient in nature given the clouds/showers storms
moving back into the area.

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Unfortunately, the very humid and unsettled weather pattern will
continue into midweek. A vort lobe rotating southeast around the
upper low over the Northeast will enhance lift over a sfc quasi-
stationary boundary Tue night into Wednesday. Additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected with PW values possibly
pushing back above 2 inches Wed afternoon and evening. As such,
isolated to scattered flash flooding will remain a concern through
Wednesday.

But there's a light at the end of the tunnel: global models are in
better agreement with a drier end to the week. After the Wednesday
wave pushes south over the area, central CONUS ridging appears
likely to build eastward over the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Sfc high
pressure also builds southeast from the Upper Midwest, providing a
drier NE flow pattern. That does mean temperatures will see a boost
without meaningful CAA. Hot and humid conditions may persist into
the weekend as well, but with drier weather overall.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 754 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

This is a low confidence forecast with random rainfall across the
region expected. The expected precipitation isn't well connected to
any feature. There isn't a front or boundary that is going to cause
these showers. A moist airmass continues to sit over the region, and
any little lifting of air in the airmass will lead to showers . Once
one set of showers begins the outflowing winds from those cells can
kick up other cells. Rainfall rates are expected to be heavy. With
all that being said, the TAF sites are expected to remain under VFR
conditions during most of the forecast period.

Fog is possible over LEX around 10-13z. This can only happen if
skies clear enough to drop temperatures near the dewpoint. Rainfall
in the area will help with fog formation.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for INZ077>079-084-
     089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KYZ023>035-038>041-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...BJS
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...KDW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

INZ077>079-084-089>092-KYZ023>035-038>041-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-301945-
Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-
Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Oldham-
Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-
Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-
Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-
Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, English,
Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Taylorsville,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Bardstown, Springfield,
Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon,
Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020 /244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Tropical air in place will combine with a slow-moving boundary in
the region to cause additional waves of thunderstorms over central
Kentucky and southern Indiana. Areas that see repeated thunderstorms
could see flash flooding with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
possible in localized areas through Tuesday. Gusty winds and lightning
will also be possible with any thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday due
to a stalled frontal boundary in the region. Localized flash
flooding will be the primary threat, but gusty winds and small hail
will also be possible with stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any instances of flooding the next couple
of days as well any stronger wind gusts or damage.

INZ076-083-KYZ036-037-042-043-301945-
Orange-Dubois-Scott-Harrison-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Including the cities of Paoli, Jasper, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Paris,
and Carlisle
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Tropical air in place will combine with a slow-moving boundary in
the region to cause waves of thunderstorms over central Kentucky and
southern Indiana. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the
main threats in addition to lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday due
to a stalled frontal boundary in the region. Localized flash
flooding will be the primary threat, but gusty winds and small hail
will also be possible with stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any instances of flooding the next couple
of days as well any stronger wind gusts or damage.

BJS/EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
935 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

KYZ030-031-300200-
Jefferson-Oldham-
935 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN OLDHAM AND
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 935 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bancroft,
moving south at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville, Jeffersontown, St. Matthews, Lyndon, Middletown, Douglass
Hills, Prospect, Hurstbourne, Graymoor-Devondale and Windy Hills.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3834 8564 3838 8551 3819 8547 3818 8572
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 012DEG 12KT 3828 8562

RJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
938 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

KYZ029-300215-
Bullitt-
938 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BULLITT COUNTY...

At 938 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Pioneer
Village, moving south at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shepherdsville, Mount Washington, Hebron Estates, Solitude, Bardstown
Junction, Cedar Grove, Brownington and Clermont.

LAT...LON 3798 8551 3796 8553 3796 8552 3795 8553
      3794 8553 3792 8571 3805 8567 3808 8557
      3807 8556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 352DEG 5KT 3801 8562

RJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
954 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE JEFFERSONTOWN     38.18N 85.50W
06/29/2020                   JEFFERSON          KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON POTTS ROAD. TIMES ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
955 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S PROSPECT            38.32N 85.61W
06/29/2020                   JEFFERSON          KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE 7100 BLOCK OF RIVER ROAD
            AS WELL AS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
            SNYDER AND I-71. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

RJS

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