Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Louisville, KY

105 
WGUS73 KLMK 142342
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

KYC227-142351-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-200815T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Warren KY-
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3703 8635 3689 8641 3693 8663 3710 8657

$$

RJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...Localized Flooding Threat Continues...

Convection has started to redevelop across southern KY at this hour
as this area has been cleared out the longest from morning
convective debris. Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms
to continue filling in through the afternoon and evening mainly
along and south of the Ohio River as the rest of the CWA
destabilized and an upper disturbance remains in the area as a
trigger. Most confident in coverage across southern and east central
KY, but can't rule out showers/storms anywhere in the CWA at this
point.

Not much has changed with the Flash Flood Watch and from morning
thinking with the afternoon/evening showers and storms as slow
movement, a juicy atmosphere (PWATs ~2"), and primed antecedent
conditions in some spots that saw earlier heavy rain could all
contribute to a localized flooding threat. Overall, the latest hi-
res data has backed off on coverage a bit and focused things a bit
farther south, but with differential heating and any outflow won't
take any one area in the watch off the table yet.

As far as the extremely isolated strong to severe storm threat goes,
think the chances are quite small due to several mitigating factors.
1.) cloud cover has limited destabilization in some areas 2.) mid
level lapse rates are unimpressive 3.) DCAPE values are quite low at
this point. It is still possible that if any storms get going later
that an isolated wet microburst can't be ruled out, but beyond that
the threat isn't substantial enough to mention.

Expect the bulk of coverage to diminish after sunset with the loss
of heating, but will keep at least some chances into tonight,
especially east of I-65. There is some hint that another complex of
showers storms lingers in the Bluegrass region past Midnight. This
is where we will have the highest pops.

As we move into Saturday the upper trough axis will be sliding east
of the area, which should bring drier/subsident conditions across
our west. Any isolated to widely scattered showers and storms should
mainly be focused across our east CWA. Look for highs in the low to
mid 80s east, and mid to upper 80s across the central and western
CWA.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

A series of shortwave troughs embedded in broader NW flow aloft will
traverse through the first part of the long term. The first
shortwave trough will push through Sunday afternoon and have a weak
trailing cold front at the surface. Models depict some low level
moisture pooling ahead of the front with scattered showers and
storms developing during the daytime. Temperatures won't drop much
behind the front, but we should see a notable drop in dewpoints from
low 70s to low 60s by Monday morning.

Another shortwave trough will then come swinging through the north
late Monday, and this one will have a slightly "stronger" cold front
with it. We could see additional showers and storms ahead of the
front late Monday into Tuesday, with drier air and high pressure
building in from the north late Tuesday into Wednesday. High
temperatures starting Tuesday of next week and continuing into the
end of the week will likely be in the low to mid 80s, with dewpoints
at more tolerable (low 60s) levels for August standards. There may
be additional chances for precipitation mid to late week, but
confidence in how the finer details of the upper level pattern will
evolve remains low, so will broadbrush PoPs for time being.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Tricky forecast for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Most
of the morning convection has pushed off to the east, minus some
lingering light rain at LEX currently. We are expecting
redevelopment of scattered afternoon showers and storms as the
remnant disturbance remains in the area and some clearing is
allowing the atmosphere to destabilize a bit. Overall, confidence it
quite low for timing of any showers/storms at any 1 site through the
afternoon and evening, so mostly handled with VCTS. The most
confidence would be down toward BWG, so decided to handle that area
with a TEMPO.

Otherwise, expect variable cloudiness with mostly VFR ceilings and
light and variable winds. Went dry overnight, and there could be
some fog development especially in areas that saw heavy rainfall.
The limiting factor with overnight fog will be how much cloud cover
is still around. A return to VFR is expected into the day on
Saturday with generally light N winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

Short Term...BJS
Long Term...DM
Aviation...BJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
331 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

INZ084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-
151945-
Crawford-Perry-Harrison-Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-
Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-
Franklin-Scott-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-
Nelson-Washington-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-Garrard-
Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Logan-Warren-
Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-
Clinton-
Including the cities of English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany,
Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg,
Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville,
La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort,
Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles,
Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg,
Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville,
Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave,
Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville,
Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow,
Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville,
and Albany
331 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 /231 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the outlook area this afternoon and evening. The main threats from
the storms will be torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning.
Localized Flash Flooding may occur in areas that see persistent
thunderstorm activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be
expected through Sunday as heat and humidity continue. The main
threats from these storms will be locally gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any stronger wind gusts as well as heavier
rainfall totals or flooding.

INZ076>079-083-151945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison,
and Jasper
331 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the outlook area today. The main threats from the storms will be
torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be
expected through Sunday as heat and humidity continue. The main
threats from these storms will be locally gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any stronger wind gusts as well as heavier
rainfall totals or flooding.

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1238 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ENE LEWISPORT         37.94N 86.86W
08/14/2020                   HANCOCK            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGH WATER OVER RAILROAD TRACKS BETWEEN 1230
            AND 1481 LEE HENDERSON ROAD.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1240 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N DUKES               37.86N 86.70W
08/14/2020                   HANCOCK            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGH WATER OVER BRIDGE NEAR 2641 SQUIRREL
            TAIL HOLLOW ROAD.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1241 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE LEWISPORT         37.92N 86.85W
08/14/2020                   HANCOCK            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODED ROADWAY BETWEEN 330 AND 710 FRANK
            LUTTRELL ROAD; HIGH WATER SIGN POSTED.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1254 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE LEWISPORT         37.92N 86.85W
08/14/2020                   HANCOCK            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 3
            ESE LEWISPORT FOR ESTIMATED TIME USING
            RADAR. FLOODED ROADWAY BETWEEN 330 AND 710
            FRANK LUTTRELL ROAD; HIGH WATER SIGN POSTED.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
125 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE VALLEY STATION    38.11N 85.83W
08/14/2020                   JEFFERSON          KY   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERING ROADWAYS WITH 4.60 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT, MOSTLY
            BETWEEN 4 AND 730 AM; REPORTED AT STONE
            STREET AND VALLEY STATION ROAD LOUISVILLE
            KY.

&&

CG