Wind Advisory 16, NWS Elko, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
812 PM PDT Tue Jun 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure moving north of the state will bring in
some cooler air for the next day or two. As showers taper off and
winds die down tonight, Wednesday morning low temperatures could
affect tender plants. Otherwise a warming trend will ensue for the
latter part of the week, with daytime highs reaching into the 90s
as we pass through the Summer Solstice.

&&

.UPDATE...
Examined current conditions and determined that the wind advisory
can expire at 8PM. For the Red Flag warnings all zones expire
except for Zone 426. 426 has been extended till midnight tonight
as winds and RH remain above criteria.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 213 PM /

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night. Winds picked up
around 10 am this morning south of highway 50, not a strong as
anticipated yet but still concern for fire weather as humidity
levels are dropping. Further north, thunderstorms started
developing around 10 am as well near the Ruby Mountains. One
isolated cell became severe before 11 am. Model agreement is
pretty good concerning the movement of an upper low passing north
of the state in the short term period. There are a few areas of
concern with this system...fire weather and cold temperatures.

Tonight through Wednesday. A potent low pressure system will move
through Oregon and Idaho, dragging a sharp trough axis through
northern Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms up north should taper
off this evening and winds will subside this evening across
central Nevada. Northeast Nevada is in a modest CAPE environment
with a 130kt jet core cutting through the northern part of the
state. There is frost/freeze potential Wednesday morning but there
will be some wrap-around moisture as the trough axis hangs up
over northeast Nevada. The Jarbidge Wilderness area could pick up
2-3 inches of snowfall above 6000 feet with minimal impacts at the
valley level. The trough will attain a positive- tilt orientation
which is an unusually cool pattern for this time of year however
cloud cover may save us from frigid conditions. High temperatures
Wednesday will generally be in the 60s. Low temperatures will be
in the 30s.

Wednesday night through Thursday night. Low pressure will lift
north and move into Canada. The LKN CWFA will continue to be under
a cool trough pattern. Frost and freeze conditions will recur
overnight in select areas. As drier conditions begin, daytime
temperatures will rebound in kind. High temperatures will reach
the 70s all around. Low temperatures will generally be in the
30s.

LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday

Overview:
Returning to a more typical June pattern with signs of the four
corners high by end of the weekend/early next week. Specifically,
a front system impacts the Pacific NW late Friday, spreading some
cloud cover into far northern Nevada Friday night into Saturday.
There potential for another wave to travel just north of the state
on Sunday, diving slightly further southeast into far NE Nevada
Sunday night through Monday. Now, there is disagreement on how
much the 500mb ridge builds on Sunday, with the EC the strongest,
and thus showing no signs of this wave on Sunday/Monday (heights
reaching 594dm over the area). However, EC position the center of
the 500mb high on Monday such that mid or high level moisture is
pulled into the area from the SW as the subtropical jet approaches
southern CA. Therefore, you would still see some instability on
Monday and Tuesday with this solution, just with warmer
conditions.

Sensible Weather:

Precipitation:
High based shower (virga) or thunderstorm Sun, Mon, and Tue
afternoons in NE or eastern NV. Chances of precip reaching the
ground are still low for each day (very typical for this time of
the year). Confident we'll see afternoon clouds with virga but
not confident if build high enough to become dry thunderstorms

Winds:
Becoming breezy (W-SW) on Sunday and Monday, especially over
central NV but not expected any advisories as jet support and
forecast confidence is far weaker than the current system.

Temperatures:
Temperatures climbing into the 80s to low 90s by Sat with 90s for
Sun, Mon, and next Tue. A few of the warmer spots may approach
100 next Mon or Tue depending on which solutions verifies.

Aviation:
Showers impacting the northern sites this evening before
clouds thin out overnight. For KELY and KTPH, less cloud cover
with very gusty N-NW winds, subsiding somewhat overnight...but
still gusty through tomorrow morning. Lighter winds with a few
afternoon stratocumulus tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms will dissipate this
evening as a cold front moves east of the state. However there
may still be a few lingering showers over northeast Nevada on
Wednesday. After this evening, winds will be lighter and fire
weather concerns will be mitigated.

A cool trough will be sitting north of the state for the next
couple days. High pressure will build across the west for the
remainder of the week. Temperatures will be a little on the cool
side Wednesday and Thursday before a rapid warm-up begins.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for Humboldt County-
Northeastern Nye County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby
Mountains and East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwest Elko
County-White Pine County.

Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Northern Nye
County-Mojave.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northwestern Nye
County.

&&

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