Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Elko, NV

512 
WWUS85 KLKN 112126
RFWLKN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Elko NV
226 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020


NVZ437-121530-
/O.UPG.KLKN.FW.A.0011.200812T1900Z-200813T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KLKN.FW.W.0019.200812T1900Z-200813T0400Z/
/O.CON.KLKN.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200812T0300Z/
Humboldt County-Quinn-
226 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
437...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 437...

The National Weather Service in Elko has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry
thunderstorms. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 437 Humboldt County-Quinn.

* Winds Today...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Winds Wednesday...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 
  mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 8 percent.

* Thunderstorm Coverage today...Isolated dry thunderstorms this 
  afternoon. Coverage will become more scattered in the late 
  afternoon or early evening.

* Outflow Winds today...Gusty and erratic winds of 50 mph will be
  possible with any thunderstorm today.

* Impacts today...Dry lightning may create new fire starts and 
  combine with strong outflow winds to produce rapid fire growth 
  today.

* Impacts Wednesday...The combination of gusty winds and low 
  humidity will create critical fire weather conditions on 
  Wednesday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NVZ424-438-121530-
/O.NEW.KLKN.FW.W.0019.200812T1900Z-200813T0400Z/
/O.CON.KLKN.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200812T0300Z/
Southeastern Humboldt County and northern Lander County-
W Elko County, N Eureka and Lander Counties N of I80-
226 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
424...438...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 424 AND 438...

The National Weather Service in Elko has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds, low relative humidity, and dry
thunderstorms.

* Affected Area...Today: Fire Zone 424 and 438 for dry 
  thunderstorms.

* Affected Area...Wednesday: Fire Zone 424 and 438 for winds and 
  low RH.
 
* Winds today...Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Winds Wednesday...Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 
  mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Thunderstorm Coverage today...Isolated dry thunderstorms this 
  afternoon. Coverage will become more scattered in the late 
  afternoon or early evening.

* Outflow Winds today...Gusty and erratic winds of 50 mph will be
  possible with any thunderstorm.

* Impacts today...Dry lightning may create new fire starts and 
  combine with strong outflow winds to produce rapid fire growth.

* Impacts Wednesday...The combination of gusty winds and low 
  humidity will create critical fire weather conditions on 
  Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

NVZ469-470-120300-
/O.CON.KLKN.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200812T0300Z/
Central Elko County-Eastern Elko County-
226 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
469 AND 470...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 469 Central Elko County and 
  Fire Weather Zone 470 Eastern Elko County.

* Thunderstorm Coverage...Isolated dry thunderstorms are 
  expected this afternoon. Coverage will become more scattered 
  in the late afternoon or early evening.

* Outflow Winds...Gusty and erratic winds of 50 mph will be 
  possible with any thunderstorm.

* Impacts...Dry lightning may create new fire starts and combine 
  with strong outflow winds to produce rapid fire growth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
640 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorms return to the area today, lasting
through Wednesday. Thereafter, dry and warm conditions through
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Updated the POP and Wx grids to depict activity
starting a little earlier than expected as MESAT and sounding
indicate a unstable layer aloft this morning. Based on current
thunderstorm probability, believe eastern Elko county is first to
see some lightning between 18-21Z. PWAT values came in at .57 for
the sounding which what was expect. No update required for the
fire zones or headlines.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 255 AM /

SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorms return to the area today, lasting
through Wednesday. Thereafter, dry and warm conditions through
the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM...This morning through Tuesday

Rest of this morning. Water vapor depicts an area of mid-level
moisture stretching from NW Nye to the NE corner of the state. In
this area, PWAT values of .5 to .6 inches reside. On both sides
of this drier, more stable air exist. At the surface, a dry line
still exist over the CWA, separating somewhat moist airmass in
northern NV to a drier ones in central NV. Additional moisture is
bing pulled or rotating into the area from west by an upper level
circulation off the CA central coast, and a approaching small area
of lower 1.0 PV heights from the northwest.

Today (Monday)..As additional moisture is pulled/rotate into the
area that above mention dry line becomes more ENE to WSW oriented
in far eastern NV. This also due to an elongated area of lower 1.0
PV heights along the subtropical jet lifting northeast into
southern NV as that above mentioned upper level circulation pulls
further away from the CA central coast. This increases the shear
slightly over central NV. Additionally, that area of lower 1.0 PV
digs southeast in north eastern corner of Nevada. All together,
isolated thunderstorms are likely, with most of them on the dry
side. All high resolution models/blends indicate convection fires
off in NW Nye/SW Lander before stronger cells with slightly
higher storm motions in NE Nevada later. NBM and NBM exp t-storms
probs also agree on this. Expecting the cells in central NV to
remain nearly stationary or drift to the south due to light flow
in the mid levels.

Tomorrow...that elongated area of lower 1.0 PV heights lifts and
weakens over northern Nevada, which places the sub-tropical jet
touching the southern CWA boundary. All of this helps to either
maintain the mid-level moisture present or pull some in from the
west. This increases the PWAT values north of US 50 near .75
inches while keeping areas south in the .35 to .45 inch range. As
an approaching cold front from the Pacific NW nears the area by
afternoon,the subtropical jet is pulled even further northward,
increasing the vertical sheer and storm motion...plus placing NE
Nevada in a favorable quadrant the jet. Due to these factors,
expected isolated to scattered thunderstorms north of US 6 with a
few dropping some decent rainfall, especially towards the evening
hours when the lower level moisten up further (dropping LCL below
600mb and increasing PWATs up to .80 inches in some area).

As for temperatures, a slight drop in highs today due to more
cloud cover (still in the 90s). After a mild Monday night (most
areas in the 60s with West Wendover staying in the 70s), high
temperatures on Tuesday drop a little further from their Monday
values (80s to low 90s), mainly due to convection.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Monday.

Little real change from earlier forecast. Hot, generally dry.
Synoptically, strong ridge over the deep southwest with 591 dm
center will slowly retrogress and build northwest into the Great
Basin through the period, as a large Pacific Northwest short wave
moves east. Wednesday, dynamics and moisture with the departing
wave will brush northeast Nevada for hybrid wet/dry storms. We're
gonna struggle to have much in the way of upper dynamics to
ventilate the push from surface heat. And the ridge will cut off
most lower level moisture as the axis builds in. By late in the
period the high become centered near Ely with a 597 dm center. The
models pretty well agree on this. Highs in the lower 90s/upper 80s
Wednesday will build back up to mid 90s to near 100 by late in the
period. Low generally in the 50s, with the exception of the higher
valleys prone to radiative nights. Wild Horse hit 36 this morning
despite reaching 87 this afternoon. Typical dry August weather in
the northern Great Basin.

AVIATION....General VFR conditions will continue over the TAF
sites on Monday with afternoon wind gusts of 15 to 20 kts and high
density altitudes due to max temps in the 90s. Cumulus buildups
will increase Monday afternoon and early evening over central
Nevada between northern (KWMC, KBAM, & KEKO) and southern (KELY &
KTPH) TAF sites where a few en route dry thunderstorms could
develop. Outlook for Tuesday: increasing isolated to scattered dry
storm coverage especially north of US-50 along the I-80 corridor.

FIRE WEATHER...Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected today
as moisture increases and conditions aloft become slightly more
unstable. Conditions are most favorable in NE Nevada. By tomorrow,
approaching cold front brings more widespread area of
thunderstorms. The challenge tomorrow is whether coverage of dry
thunderstorms becomes scattered. The limiting factor continues to
be storm motion, which weak/low (especially across southern
zones)...although it increases by late afternoon/evening across NE
Nevada. Additionally, the storms may transition to wet as the
lower layers of the atmosphere moisten up by late afternoon.
Bottom line...continue with the fire weather watch for the
northern zones but this is a border line event.

Another round of thunderstorms in far eastern Nevada is expected
on Wednesday before dry conditions return area wide Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for Central Elko County-Eastern Elko County-Humboldt County-
Quinn-Southeastern Humboldt County and northern Lander County-W
Elko County, N Eureka and Lander Counties N of I80.

&&

85/95