Tornado Warning 29, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
404 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...
Deep tropical moisture, with PW values north of 2", continues to
stream over the area this morning. And this does not look to stop
through at least Thu. Taking a look at vectors, mass fields and the
hodo, there is very good evidence that the environment is very
supportive of training thunderstorms starting now thourgh roughly
11am today. Afterwards, these paramaters fall out of favor for this
scenario and all activity becomes more progressive and transitory.

A weak sfc low will set up today near the Houston area. Upper level
disturbances will be connected with sfc variables provided by the
weakness the sfc gives to keep sh/ts moving through the area into at
least Thu. The sfc low will pull out Thu bringing rain chances a bit
lower but definitely not shutting down the water works. Activity may
simply take a bit longer to get started with daytime heating. Some
of the stronger thunderstorms could cause some damaging straight
line winds. As normal during tropical environments, waterspouts and
a weak tornado will remain a possibility. But the main thing to look
for is the potential for flooding rainfall. This is still expected
to be localized and the most prominant thing would be streets and
low lying areas that normally flood during heavy rainfall.

Eventhough, each day will bring a chance of rain into next week. The
activity may take longer to get started and allow a few areas to dry
out each day. A slow progression to lower precip chances will occur
into mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some sites are expected to have prevailing showers and tempo TS
starting again during the pre 12z hour. All sites will eventually
have these conditions at some point during the morning. This should
be ongoing through the day once again. This activity will bring at
least IFR conditions with a few LIFR possible as +TSRA move
overhead. Outside the sh/ts VFR will be noted at each terminal but
should not last long as the majority of the day will be -SHRA and
TSRA at most terminals. A lull in activity once again overnight only
to give way to more of these same conditions for Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore wind speeds will continue to fluctuate between around 10kt
during the day and 15kt during the night. Nocturnal sh/ts numbers
will continue to be high each night for the next few nights. Winds
and seas will be higher in and around this activity. The evironment
will remain conducive for waterspouts as well and some of these
could be found in the nearshore waters and lakes mainly during the
morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  72  84  73 / 100  60  80  10
BTR  83  72  83  74 / 100  50  70  10
ASD  87  72  87  74 / 100  40  60  10
MSY  86  76  87  78 / 100  40  60  10
GPT  85  75  86  77 /  90  30  50  10
PQL  88  73  88  74 /  80  30  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&