Small Craft Advisory 43, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
559 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall around 5 PM CDT just east
of Grand Isle. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for most
of southeast LA, and southern Mississippi until Monday morning
where tropical storm force winds and gusts have occurred this
afternoon and are expected to continue to over night. The highest
gusts and heaviest rainfall expected to occur along the
Mississippi coast. Winds could gust well over tropical storm force
overnight especially as rain bands rotate around the storm
system. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue overnight with
areas east of I-55 expected to receive an additional 3 to 5 inches
with an additional 2 to 4 west of I-55. Locally higher amounts
are possible especially with heavier rain bands. Conditions will
slowly improve as Cristobal is expected to move inland around and
to the west of a strong upper level ridge over the next 48 hours.
A deep upper level trough will move into the lee side of the
Rockies by Tuesday. This will rapidly bring the remnants of
Cristobal out of our area...through Arkansas and eventually into
the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley merging with a
frontal boundary. Conditions will return to more of a typical
summer time pattern with scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evening hours through midweek. The back end of
the forecast is rather quiet compared to the first 36-60 hrs. We
still anticipate a rather large ridge developing over the Rockies
and it will expand east into the central CONUS over the back half
of the week and the weekend. This will keep the region rather dry
and what looks to be on the warm side but nothing to rough with
highs only in the lower 90s. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...Tropical Storm conditions have already been impacting
multiple terminals. Winds are going to ramp up over the next 6 hrs.
Thunder has been rather difficult to come by today and honestly not
sure there has even been any lightning in our area. Low cigs will be
rather constant and vsbys will obviously drop with each rain band.
Concern is tonight as the nocturnal maximum could lead to a
rather strong band of showers and maybe embedded thunder somewhere
across the region. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...

Tropical storm Conditions will continue through the overnight
hours tonight as Tropical Storm Cristobal makes landfall near
Grand Isle and continues to move northward. Conditions will
slowly improve through the day on Monday. Conditions will return
to more of a typical summer time pattern by mid week. For more
information regarding this please refer to the Marine Weather
Warning (MWW). Strong onshore flow will continue into Tuesday even
as Cristobal moves away.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  83  75  89 / 100  90  50  50
BTR  75  86  77  90 / 100  90  40  40
ASD  75  86  75  90 / 100  80  40  50
MSY  77  85  78  89 / 100  70  40  40
GPT  76  84  77  86 / 100  70  40  50
PQL  74  86  75  88 / 100  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ040-050-058-
     060-061-072.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ082.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&