Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
339 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Friday...Currently convction ongoing is dominating
the region with outflow generated showers and thunderstorms across
large portion of the area...main concern is the vort moving just
north of the Mobile AL area that is triggereing larger areas of
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Coastal MS will likely see the
best chances for thunderstorms through the evening as that feature
drops south-southwest. Have kept chances in there well into the
night with the rest of the region seeing little to nothing after
sunset and loss of heating. Overnight should be mostly dry with
some offshore convection possible especially near the
aforementioned vort. Thursday should be fairly like today with
scattered thunderstorms and showers again driven by daily heating
and likely this wave/vort feature if it is still around...some
areas could see very heavy rainfall with slow moving storms and
fairly high PWATS around 2-2.2". Isolated 4-5" rainfall totals
would not be hard to reach under the best storms of the day. Heat
indices will fall just under criteria...but nearing 105-107 across
portions of the area outside of any early thunderstorm activity.
Drying Friday as the wave moves out and some slightly drier air
moves in...isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers
possible. Heat indicies lower and only pushing 100-102ish.

.LONG TERM...
Saturday through Wednesday...Ridging tries to work its way into
the TN valley through the weekend should see typical hot summer
days with isolated thunderstorms. As the ridging to the north
breaks down as a large broad trough moves across the eastern US early
next week into the middle of the week will see the easterly flow
push some more moisture into the region and increase thunderstom
chances Monday and Tuesday and that should continue into mid
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Only concern will be the gusty winds and higher seas at times in
and around showers and thunderstorms throughout the next few days.
Outside of that winds will be mostly onshore in the 10kt range

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020/

AVIATION...
18z TAFs...Main concern for the next 6 hours will be MVFR and IFR
conditions and gusty winds with the ongoing and future development
of thunderstorms across the region. Have added VCTS and a tempo of
TSRA at most sites to run through the afternoon and wrap around
23-00z. Outside of these storms VFR conditions will dominate with
light and variable winds. ABS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  91  75  92 /  10  60   0  30
BTR  76  92  76  93 /  10  70  10  30
ASD  76  92  74  93 /  20  70   0  30
MSY  78  90  77  92 /  20  80   0  30
GPT  77  88  76  90 /  40  60   0  20
PQL  73  92  74  93 /  40  60   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
448 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

MSZ077-152245-
Pearl River-
448 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PEARL RIVER
COUNTY...

At 447 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lumberton, or
12 miles north of Poplarville, moving west at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Pearl
River County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3100 8934 3084 8934 3084 8941 3089 8963
      3100 8963 3101 8951 3100 8950 3100 8947
      3098 8947 3098 8943 3101 8942 3101 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 086DEG 6KT 3101 8946

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
546 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

LAZ039-MSZ077-152345-
Washington-Pearl River-
546 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON PARISH
IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 546 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Poplarville, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Poplarville, Varnado and Angie.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3100 8950 3100 8947 3098 8947 3098 8944
      3089 8944 3080 8954 3080 8984 3100 8983
      3100 8955 3101 8955 3101 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 065DEG 18KT 3091 8963

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
618 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

LAZ061>064-068>070-160045-
Orleans-Lower Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Lower Jefferson-Lower St.
Bernard-Upper Plaquemines-Upper Jefferson-
618 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD...
WESTERN ORLEANS...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES
PARISHES...

At 618 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Belle Chasse,
moving northwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Metairie, Chalmette, Marrero, Harvey, East New Orleans,
Timberlane, Belle Chasse, Port Sulphur, Jefferson, Gretna, Westwego,
Jean Lafitte, Woodmere, Violet, Terrytown, Meraux, Poydras, Myrtle
Grove and Pointe A La Hache.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 2951 8995 2954 8996 2954 9001 3002 9019
      3003 9003 3006 9003 3004 9002 3004 9000
      3007 8994 3012 8990 3000 8985 2998 8985
      2966 8972 2952 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 151DEG 10KT 2984 8996

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
626 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

LAZ039-040-MSZ070-071-077-080-160030-
Washington-St. Tammany-Pike-Walthall-Hancock-Pearl River-
626 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ST. TAMMANY
AND WASHINGTON PARISHES...SOUTHERN WALTHALL...SOUTHEASTERN PIKE...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 626 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 9 miles north of Franklinton to 6 miles
north of Kiln. Movement was southwest at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bogalusa, Picayune, Franklinton, Poplarville, Diamondhead, Tylertown,
Varnado, Folsom, Sun, Kiln, Enon, Crossroads, Mount Herman, Stennis
Space Center, Bush, Dexter, Mcneil and Angie.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3113 9000 3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984
      3100 8983 3100 8969 3083 8954 3073 8934
      3038 8934 3035 8937 3036 8968 3062 9018
      3095 9035 3108 9035 3118 9003 3117 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 035DEG 20KT 3098 9011 3051 8943

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
734 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

LAZ039-MSZ069>071-160100-
Washington-Pike-Walthall-Amite-
734 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WASHINGTON PARISH...
WESTERN WALTHALL...PIKE AND EAST CENTRAL AMITE COUNTIES...

At 734 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Ruth, or 9 miles east of Mccomb, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mccomb, Magnolia, Summit, Tylertown, Salem and Mccomb Airport.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3124 9004 3093 9021 3124 9062 3135 9040
      3135 9021
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 042DEG 13KT 3124 9030

BL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
753 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

LAZ040-062-064-070-160145-
Orleans-Upper St. Bernard-Lower St. Bernard-St. Tammany-
753 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ST. BERNARD...
NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS AND SOUTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISHES...

At 752 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Covington to 8 miles south of Lake
Catherine. Movement was southwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Slidell, Covington, East New Orleans, Abita Springs,
Madisonville, Lake Catherine, Lacombe, Shell Beach and Slidell
Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3055 8998 3016 8961 3016 8963 3002 8972
      3004 8982 2998 8985 2996 8973 2987 8962
      2987 8961 2999 8958 3003 8950 2998 8945
      2978 8970 3005 8998 3015 8988 3010 8981
      3018 8968 3021 8981 3038 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 042DEG 14KT 3048 9011 2999 8970

TD