Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
404 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Surface low over northwest Arkansas at 3 PM CDT, with a cold front
to near Houston. Upper trough over southern Oklahoma, per water
vapor loops. LIX 18z sounding continued to show a cap at 850 mb,
which is inhibiting storms from moving much further eastward than
a McComb to Baton Rouge line at this time. We will be launching a
special sounding shortly to reassess lower levels of the
atmosphere over the eastern half of the area. Tornado Watch 107
continues until 8 PM for northern half of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Short range models show highest threat of severe weather likely to
be north of our CWA, but still enough potential here to not change
the message at this time. All precipitation should be clear of our
area by 07-08z. Will continue Wind Advisory and Coastal Flood
Advisory as currently configured. Water levels 1 to 1.5 feet above
normal. Once wind direction shifts, water levels should start
diminishing. Dry Monday through Tuesday afternoon. As front
becomes parallel to upper flow, could have a period of showers
and/or storms move over the coastal waters and possibly coastal
areas Tuesday night.

Will go with blended temperatures for the short range as not a
major discrepancy for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...

Timing differences exist for the next system next weekend, will
continue using blended solutions until a preferred solution
becomes apparent.

&&

.AVIATION...

Outside of convection, MVFR to VFR ceilings common. Convection
will lower to IFR conditions. Southerly wind gusts 30+ knots
likely producing significant crosswind issues on E-W runway
configurations. LLWS also likely until cold frontal passage. Should
see improvement to VFR behind front.

&&

.MARINE...

No change to current headlines, Small Craft Advisories verifying
well, with a few of the elevated oil platforms seeing an
occasional gust to gale force. Winds should relax behind frontal
passage as pressure gradient eases and cold advection remains to
the north. Winds will increase to the 15-20 knot range again
around Tuesday night as wave moves along the front over the Gulf
of Mexico with these trends continuing into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  75  52  77 /  30   0   0  10
BTR  58  74  52  78 /  20   0   0  20
ASD  62  81  55  81 /  60   0   0  20
MSY  64  80  61  80 /  50   0   0  20
GPT  65  81  57  78 /  50   0   0  20
PQL  63  84  55  82 /  70   0   0  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ040-
     050-058-060>062-064-066>070-072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-534-
     550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-536-538-
     555-557-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ534-550-
     552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ536-538-555-
     557-575-577.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

LAZ046>049-122015-
Iberville-Ascension-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-
230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ASCENSION...
SOUTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE...CENTRAL IBERVILLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
EAST BATON ROUGE PARISHES...

At 229 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast of
Catahoula, moving northeast at 75 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Baton Rouge, Plaquemine, Oak Hills Place, St. Gabriel, Addis, Village
St. George, Bayou Sorrel, Gardere and Old Jefferson.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3039 9154 3037 9093 3036 9092 3010 9142
      3011 9147 3019 9147 3020 9149 3023 9148
      3024 9157 3026 9159 3027 9159 3029 9160
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 223DEG 64KT 3015 9159

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
252 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

LAZ036-037-MSZ069-070-122030-
St. Helena-East Feliciana-Pike-Amite-
252 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. HELENA AND
NORTHEASTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES...NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND AMITE
COUNTIES...

At 251 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Felps, or 7
miles northeast of Clinton, moving northeast at 80 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mccomb, Clinton, Liberty, Summit, Centreville, Gloster, Smithdale,
Felps and Crosby.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3135 9039 3086 9095 3087 9107 3133 9105
      3135 9102 3133 9099 3135 9098
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 224DEG 71KT 3096 9096

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TORNADO          10 N SALEM              31.37N 90.12W
04/12/2020                   LAWRENCE           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 2 HOUSES DESTROYED IN NORTHERN
            WALTHALL COUNTY.

&&

MEGANWIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TORNADO          4 N SALEM               31.29N 90.12W
04/12/2020                   WALTHALL           MS   UNKNOWN

            TDS BEGAN IN NORTHERN WALTHALL COUNTY AT 2040Z.

&&

MEGANWIL

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