Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020
.Discussion...
The main concern in this forecast package remains as the impacts to
our CWA from Hurricane Delta.

Portions of our area are already starting to see some light showers
that have been very brief. Radar will continue picking up this
afternoon into the evening with heavier showers and some possible
thunderstorms. We will see conditions worsen overnight as Hurricane
Delta pushes northward into the gulf. Temperatures should top out
around... today and overnight lows aren't cooling down as much as it
has been in the previous days. We are definitely already feeling the
tropical moisture in the air.

 Hurricane Delta continues its northward track across western
portion of the Gulf of Mexico and is currently maintaining Category
2 strength winds. It is possible Delta could briefly increase to
Category 3 strength and then back to Cat 2 strength as it tracks
inland. Delta, with the latest advisory from NHC, is expected to
begin moving inland as early as Friday afternoon. It is then
forecast to bring potentially significant impacts to our area
starting as soon as tomorrow night.

Some areas along the coast may start experiencing sustained tropical
storm forced winds and storm surge inundation as early as tonight
and begin improving by Saturday. There is very high confidence that
with the current track, impact expectations could include:
potentially life-threatening storm surge, widespread damaging winds,
and heavy rainfall with potential for some flash flooding and river
flooding. Hurricane watches are still in effect as well Tropical
Storm warnings for much of the area from Atchafalaya River to the
Pearl River in SE LA and areas west of I-55 in SW MS. Storm Surge
values were decreased due to greater confidence in Delta tracking
further west of SW LA, however the storm surge watches and warnings
are still fairly the same. As for rainfall, 4-6" of rain is forecast
for areas west of I-55 and north of I-10 in SE LA and southern
Mississippi. The highest risk of rainfall that could produce flash
flooding will be west of the I-55 corridor Friday through Friday
night. Confidence is much higher now with the current track that
Delta will in fact bring significant impacts to SE LA and southern
Mississippi so make sure you wrap up hurricane preparations tonight.

Beyond this system, extended forecast shows that we will dry out
through at least mid-week next week along with a cold front expected
on Tuesday. As of now, there are no indications of additional
tropical activity that should affect our area. Fingers crossed that
Delta will be the final storm of our hurricane season. /TDB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings trending towards some MVFR ceilings through the day
continue along with some light showers entering the area now at most
TAF sites. Showers may increase later causing some visibility
restrictions.Lower ceilings are possible with Delta causing moisture
to increase steadily as it continues to approach the northern
portions of the gulf. /TDB/

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually ramp up to 20 to 25 knots in
southern/offshore waters through this evening as the pressure
gradient tightens on north periphery of Hurricane Delta.
Conditions are then expected to deteriorate rapidly overnight
tonight into Friday with tropical storm force winds possible or
expected over western waters, and lower end tropical storm
conditions mainly in gusts across eastern coastal waters. Seas are
expected to gradually rise to 6 to 10 feet offshore late tonight,
7 to 12 feet on Thursday and then 15 to 20 feet over western
coastal waters and 10 to 13 feet over eastern waters late Thursday
night into Friday. Much improved conditions with lower winds and
subsiding seas are expected over the weekend. 22/TD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  82  72  80 /  60  70  90  60
BTR  73  82  72  81 /  60  90  80  50
ASD  72  83  72  82 /  40  50  80  50
MSY  75  82  74  82 /  40  60  70  40
GPT  73  81  74  81 /  30  40  80  60
PQL  72  85  73  83 /  30  40  70  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ034>037-040-046>050-056>072.

     Storm Surge Warning for LAZ040-056-059-062-064>070-072.

     Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon for LAZ034>037-046>050-056-057.

     Tropical Storm Watch for LAZ039.

     Storm Surge Watch for LAZ046-058-067.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-534-538-550-552-555-570-572-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-536-557-
     577.

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ068-069.

     Storm Surge Warning for MSZ080-081.

     Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon for MSZ068-069.

     Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ070-071-077-080.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ082.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ534-538-550-552-555-570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ536-557-577.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
717 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020

MSZ070-071-090115-
Pike-Walthall-
717 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2020

...A LINE OF TROPICAL SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WALTHALL AND PIKE
COUNTIES...

At 714 PM CDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from near Columbia to near Osyka. Movement was northwest at
35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Mccomb, Magnolia, Summit, Tylertown, Osyka, Salem, Dexter and Mccomb
Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these showers, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. A flood advisory or flash flood warning may be needed if
heavy rainfall persists.

LAT...LON 3133 9008 3134 9004 3118 9003 3117 9000
      3114 9000 3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984
      3101 8984 3100 9055 3135 9055 3135 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 153DEG 32KT 3124 8977 3103 9050

24/RR