Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
442 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...
The biggest concerns in the short term are currently some flooding
potential as well as tornado potential in the northwestern part
of our CWA around the metro Baton Rouge area and southwestern
Mississippi. Some convection earlier today did have some slow
motion and training but thinking the biggest issues should remain
north and west of us.
With the remnants of Beta currently traversing central LA into
southwestern MS, there is a window of opportunity for some
diurnally driven storms to have some short lived tornadoes. The
environment is enough to support with about 1000-1500 J/kg of
CAPE, about 2-2.2 inch of PW, and nearly 300 m2/s2 of storm
relative helicity. After the sun sets tonight, expecting that the
lack of heating should knock out any remaining potential of severe
thunderstorms. What is left of Beta will continue to move towards
the northeast into Mississippi. Showers and thunderstorms will
still be in the area but should be training a lot less than some
of the convection today.

.LONG TERM...
An upper level low looks to be setting up this weekend around
Texas but overall thinking it should be relatively dry as a drier
airmass moves in from the west. The drier air should make it feel
a lot more pleasant than in the past couple of days. Early next
week, a trough over the central CONUS will be digging down and
with it it brings the first potential big(!)cold front around mid
next week. It looks to be a dry but strong enough that it will
bring low temperatures into the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR conditions for ceilings are expected through most of
the forecast cycle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may impact
the terminals especially those north of I-10 and west of I-55.
Gusty winds up to 30 mph are a concern from now until late tonight
with higher possible in thunderstorms. Visibilities may decrease
in any heavy showers or thunderstorms that impact any terminals
directly as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory criteria winds are expected to continue
through tomorrow morning for waters west of the mouth of the MS
river. Onshore flow is expected to continue through the rest of
tonight before transitioning to onshore flow into tomorrow night
as the remnants of Beta continue to move further inland into
Mississippi and Alabama. Shower and storm chances should decrease
towards the end of the week and winds should be a lot more light
through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  79  66  81 /  70  70  10  10
BTR  70  80  67  82 /  70  40  10  10
ASD  72  82  67  84 /  50  50  10  10
MSY  73  82  70  83 /  40  40  10  10
GPT  74  82  69  83 /  60  50  20  10
PQL  74  85  69  86 /  60  60  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for LAZ040-049-
     060>062-064-066>070.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for LAZ034>037-
     046>050.

     Coastal Flood Warning until noon CDT Thursday for LAZ050-058-072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-536-538-
     555-557-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CDT Thursday for MSZ080.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ068-069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-555-
     557-575-577.

&&

BL