Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
352 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Weak upper trough remains across the area with a rather wet
airmass. Precipitable water on the 00z LIX sounding was at 2.17
inches. The tail of a weak shortwave over Alabama was triggering
isolated convection from Natchez southeastward to Mobile, clipping
the northern counties of our area. In addition, a few
showers/storms over the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal
parishes. Early morning temperatures generally in the mid and
upper 70s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Earlier forecast expectations remain reasonable. Scattered
convection this morning across the area, then as low level winds
become more northwesterly during the day, the column begins to dry
out. By 00z this evening, GFSBufr sounding for New Orleans shows
precipitable water values dropping from the aforementioned 2+
inches to 1.6 inches. Beyond tonight, moisture levels remain
unseasonably low into the early part of the workweek, generally
well below 1.5 inches. Expect at that point, little or no
convection should develop over land on Sunday. Any convection
Monday will be very isolated and limited to sea breeze boundaries.
Very tempted to go with a completely dry forecast beyond this
afternoon through Monday.

Will continue forecast trends of high temperatures at the upper
end of the guidance envelope. One thing to watch for on Sunday,
and probably Monday, is if north winds are strong enough, say near
10 mph, to cancel out the sea breeze, high temperatures could get
above forecast expectations along the Mississippi coast and north
of Interstate 12.

&&

.LONG TERM...

Low level winds remain offshore through at least Wednesday, and
even after that, moisture levels as measured by precipitable water
values doesn't return to 1.75 inches until Thursday night or
Friday. Don't see any indications of any organized convective
threat through the end of the week, but as moisture levels slowly
increase, could see a little more convection near lake/sea breeze
boundaries during the afternoon hours. Will continue trend of
using the upper end of the guidance envelope for high temperature
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...

Seeing a few MVFR ceilings this morning at KASD and KHUM. Can't
rule out a convective threat at KMCB and KGPT prior to the 12z
forecast issuance, and will handle those with amendments if
necessary. HRRR/RAP solutions don't really pick up on much in the
way of TSRA until well beyond 18z, closer to 20-21z, so may push
back initiation of VCTS a couple of hours to fit this. Once
convective threat diminishes beyond sunset, don't expect much in
the way of flight restrictions the rest of the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside of the threat of thunderstorms, particularly today, no
marine issues anticipated. Winds should remain below 15 knots
outside of thunderstorms through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  94  73 /  30   0  10   0
BTR  94  75  97  75 /  30   0  10  10
ASD  93  74  97  74 /  30  10  10   0
MSY  93  78  95  79 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  91  76  94  76 /  40  10  10  10
PQL  93  74  97  74 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

LAZ039-071-MSZ070-071-077-151800-
Washington-Northern Tangipahoa-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
TANGIPAHOA AND WASHINGTON PARISHES...SOUTHERN WALTHALL...SOUTHEASTERN
PIKE AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 1220 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Kokomo to near Mount Herman.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Dexter around 1225 PM CDT.
  Franklinton around 1245 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Angie.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3114 9000 3113 8994 3107 8992 3107 8984
      3100 8983 3100 8975 3101 8950 3075 9007
      3100 9043 3118 9001 3117 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 288DEG 26KT 3115 8999 3102 9029

TD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOGALUSA                30.78N 89.86W
08/15/2020                   WASHINGTON         LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VIGOROUS OVERACHIEVING THUNDERSTORM ROLLING THROUGH
            BOGALUSA METROPOLITAN PRODUCED WIND GUSTS STRONG ENOUGH
            TO TOPPLE SEVERAL TREES ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF TOWN.
            THE BOGALUSA POLICE DEPARTMENT RECEIVED NUMEROUS PHONE
            CALLS REPORTING THE TREE DAMAGE. THE LEVEL OF WIND
            INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

&&

MEFFERSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MCCOMB                  31.25N 90.47W
08/15/2020                   PIKE               MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE KNOCKED DOWN BY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ON
            24TH STREET AND NORTHWEST AVENUE.

&&

MEFFERSO

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