River Flood Warning 21, NWS New Orleans, LA

578 
WGUS84 KLIX 040050
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
650 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Louisiana...

  Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown affecting Pike and Walthall 
  Counties 

  Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish 

  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC113-147-050649-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0021.200305T2225Z-200307T0040Z/
/TYTM6.1.ER.200305T2225Z.200306T0600Z.200306T1840Z.NO/
650 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown.
* Until Friday March 06.
* At  6:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday March 05 and continue
  to rise to near 16.0 feet by Friday March 06. 
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...The road through the middle of Hidden 
  Springs Resort Park will begin to flood along with low-lying farm 
  and pasture land near the river.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Low-lying farm and pasture land near the 
  river will flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 9015 3112 9028 3120 9033 3120 9018

$$

LAC117-050649-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0022.200306T1800Z-200307T0000Z/
/FRNL1.1.ER.200306T1800Z.200306T1800Z.200306T1800Z.NO/
650 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton.
* Until Friday March 06.
* At  6:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 1.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Friday
  March 06.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish 
  corrections facility will require flood protection measures as 
  river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015

$$

LAC103-050649-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0023.200306T1400Z-000000T0000Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.200306T1400Z.200308T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
650 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* Until further notice.
* At  6:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday March 06 and continue 
  to rise to near 12.5 feet by Sunday March 08.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8995 3063 8983 3053 8978 3053 8982 3058 8986 3062 8999
3081 9018 3081 9012

$$

914 
WGUS84 KLIX 041555
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
955 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Louisiana...
 
  Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown affecting Pike and Walthall 
  Counties 
  
  Bogue Chitto River Near Bush affecting St. Tammany Parish 

  Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton affecting Washington Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC113-147-052155-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0021.200305T2225Z-200307T0036Z/
/TYTM6.1.ER.200305T2225Z.200306T0600Z.200306T1836Z.NO/
955 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown.
* Until Friday March 06.
* At  9:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 6.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday March 05 and continue
  to rise to near 16.0 feet by Friday March 06. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Friday March 06.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...The road through the middle of Hidden 
  Springs Resort Park will begin to flood along with low-lying farm 
  and pasture land near the river.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Low-lying farm and pasture land near the 
  river will flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 9015 3112 9028 3120 9033 3120 9018

$$

LAC117-052155-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0022.200306T1800Z-200307T0000Z/
/FRNL1.1.ER.200306T1800Z.200306T1800Z.200306T1800Z.NO/
955 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River At Franklinton.
* Until Friday March 06.
* At  9:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 1.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Friday
  March 06.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...The national guard armory and parish 
  corrections facility will require flood protection measures as 
  river front property will flood. Sand bagging is recommended

&&

LAT...LON 3078 9006 3078 9018 3112 9028 3113 9015

$$

LAC103-052155-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0023.200307T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BSHL1.1.ER.200307T0000Z.200308T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
955 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Bush.
* Until further notice.
* At  9:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 5.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday March 06 and continue 
  to rise to near 12.5 feet by Sunday March 08.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The access road upstream of the bridge will 
  flood. The river will leave the main channel on the left bank below
  the bridge flooding woodlands on either side of Louisiana Highway 
  21.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Gravel pits upstream of Louisiana Highway 21
  will begin to overflow threatening property at lower elevations on 
  either side of Highway 21 in the vicinity of the bridge.

&&

LAT...LON 3067 8995 3063 8983 3053 8978 3053 8982 3058 8986 3062 8999
3081 9018 3081 9012

$$

397 
WGUS84 KLIX 050136
FLSLIX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
736 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Mississippi...
 
The Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown affecting Pike and Walthall 
Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC113-147-050206-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200307T0036Z/
/TYTM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
736 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Bogue Chitto River Near Tylertown.
* At 6:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 6.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 10.7 feet 
  Friday March 06.


&&

LAT...LON 3113 9015 3112 9028 3120 9033 3120 9018






$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
342 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...
The current upper level pattern shows a trough extending across the
upper Mississippi Valley and a close low near Baja California. The
shortwave that brought rain the the local area yesterday is quickly
racing east while the trough to the north digs south into the
midsection of the country. This will send a weakening cold front to
the area. Still looks like this boundary will be stalling right over
the CWA. That scenario will provide a focus for mostly shower
development with scattered storms. Some training may be possible but
thinking 1.5 PW isn't very high and thus rain rates not overly
intense. Storms will generally be elevated as model soundings show a
very pronouced warm nose at about 850mb. Therefore, marginal outlook
by SPC could be generous with small hail the main impact. Overnight
period could be conducive for fog development and may need a dense
fog advisory.

Likely the most impactful weather of the week will be coming late
Wednesay. The upper low currently off the CA coast will track across
Mexico tonight night and into/across central Texas Wed. Models show
a surface moving from Austin in the morning to right over Baton
Rouge just after dark. That will put the southern half of the CWA in
the warm sector. North of that thermal gradient will not see any
severe weather. Along and south of the warm front in the warm sector
is where the threat for severe weather is greatest. There's a Slight
Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall over basically the
entire CWA. Best chances for severe are looking like along and south
of I-12 in LA and all coastal MS counties. Timing of the surface low
puts the window of severe threat beginning well into the afternoon
and carrying over into the evening hours from west to east across
the CWA. All modes of severe weather and heavy rainfall will be
possible. It will probably be "messy" event with embedded severe
storms rather than clear cut supercells.

The area should be quickly clearing out before sunrise Thursday as
the upper low races eastward. Skies my stay cloudy for much of the
day, but the rain should be done. Temps will be slightly cooler than
normal Thursday but quickly bounce back to and rise above climo
Friday into the weekend. Might even stay clear of rain through the
weekend.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
With the approach of a warm front late, low ceilings and reduced
visibility readings due to fog may occur during the afternoon and
persist possibly into the evening hours. There could be some LIFR
cigs as well late today and overnight. But most inland terminals
should stay above 1SM in vis while coastal sites could have vis
reductions to 1/2SM and possibly lower. There will also be a few
passing -SHRA today and tonight but may be too small of a chance to
show for now.

.MARINE...
Fog looks to remain an issue over most waters today. The dense fog
advisory over marine areas will be left in its current time frame to
make sure the fog production remains since dew pt values are very
close to water temps. Would normally like to see these dew pt temps
a little higher than water temps. Fog may be an issue once again
tonight as well. But as winds slowly rise to around 20kt over most
marine areas, fog will begin to get mixed out improving vis. This
may not be the case for the waters where a cold front stalls near
the coast. This could cause the lakes and Mississippi Sound to keep
fog in the fcast until a sfc low lifts NE.

A cold front will stall near the coast Wednesday morning and evolve
into a warm front as a sfc low moves into the area Wednesday night
into early Thursday. This will cause winds over the lakes and
Mississippi Sound to become easterly and weaker around 10kt. The
remaining marine areas will retain southerly winds of around 15kt
rising to 20-25kt by Wed night as the sfc low tracks NE over the
western portion of the coastal waters. This low will bring a cold
front through the northern gulf Thursday morning causing winds to
rapidly shift to W around 20kt then gradually become NW through the
day. Winds will then begin to shift to N and finally to E by the
weekend and ease back to around 10-15kt. As the sfc low lifts out of
the gulf Wed into Wed night it will help develop strong possibly
severe thunderstorms mainly over the lakes and sounds while the
remainder of the coastal waters should see only a some showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms but are not expected to be severe.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  61  68  56 /  60  70 100  90
BTR  80  65  72  57 /  50  60 100  90
ASD  79  62  73  57 /  50  60 100  90
MSY  78  66  77  60 /  40  50  80  80
GPT  75  62  69  59 /  50  60 100  90
PQL  76  62  72  59 /  40  60 100  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557.

&&