River Flood Warning 16, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
601 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020

.AVIATION...

Most terminals have improved to VFR, but an occasional MVFR
ceiling is possible over the next few hours, especially at KMCB
and KBTR. Gusty winds likely this evening, particularly at KNEW,
where gusts to 30 knots are possible. Beyond 12z Friday, no
restrictions expected through the remainder of the forecast
period. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2020/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure will be building over the area today through Sunday.
Surface winds will be primarily southerly Friday through Sunday
which will bring in warmer air and moisture to the region. Some
warmer than average temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday
through the beginning of next week.

Beginning Sunday, upper level divergence will promote some lifting
in the environment. A low pressure frontal system is expected to
approach the area Monday through Thursday of next week. Lifting
and moisture in the environment leading up the the system will act
to enhance rain chances during this period, mainly Monday. Some
thunderstorms are possible with these storms as well. The system
is expected to stall out before reaching the Gulf Coast region, so
rainfall amounts are expected to be between 1 and 3 inches for
Monday through Thursday of next week. Models show the potential
for more rainfall on Thursday as well as the system continues to
push through the region. MSW

MARINE... Tightening pressure gradient and the wake of the cold
frontal passage will bringing strong winds to the marine areas.
Small craft advisories are currently out until 6 PM and will be
upgraded to a Gale Warning everywhere except the interior lakes
and sounds. Winds will quickly begin to slack after tomorrow
morning but there may a small window where Small Craft Advisories
may be needed as a buffer between the end of the Gale Warning.
Otherwise winds will become much lighter until around the
beginning of next week. -BL

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Small Craft Advisory
            Gale Warning
            River Flood Warnings

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  57  43  63 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  35  60  45  66 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  36  60  45  67 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  39  60  50  67 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  37  56  46  64 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  36  57  43  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ532-534.

&&