Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
519 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...

Unsettled pattern will persist through at least Tuesday with PW
values continuing to be well over 2 inches as weak disturbances
rotate around Bermuda high in the northern Gulf. This along with
an upper level Low over central and western portions of LA will
bring increased lift and instability into the area with locally
heavy rainfall possible throughout the daytime hours today. The
heaviest rainfall is expected to occur during the morning and
afternoon hours with another day of drying conditions expected by
late afternoon and evening as atmosphere gets worked over with
little to no sunshine for recovery afterward. With that in
mind...temperatures will remain very pleasant again today with
highs only in the low to mid 80s. An expected repeat scenario
possible on Tuesday as little change in overall pattern expected.
Meanwhile...upper level trough will begin to drop into the western
Great Lakes beginning today. This will be the key to a break in
the current pattern. Upper level trough will move eastward towards
the northeastern USA by the middle and latter part of the week.
Upper level high pressure will expand and slowly drift westward
through the Gulf during the middle and latter part of the week
bringing a drying trend with conditions returning to more typical
summer conditions. Highs are expected to return to the lower 90s
by Thursday with increased sunshine and scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...
High pressure will remain in place over the central Gulf through
the end of the week. An upper level trough will drop out of
Canada near the upper Mississippi Valley and swing across the
Great Lakes region Wednesday, then shift east towards the
Atlantic. This will first push the upper ridge centered in the
western Atlantic southward. The CWA will be in an area of weakness
between that high pressure and another near the US Desert
Southwest. Towards the W/Th time frame, the far western side of
that Atlantic ridge will break off and become centered over the
eastern GOM. Depending on how strong that smaller ridge is will
determine home far it extends north and shields the local area
from rainfall. The current forecast does still contain chance POPs
as models haven't been particularly consistent with how much
subsidence develops locally. An unseasonably low latitude sharp
shortwave trough digs through the Arklatex and into the southern
Mississippi River Valley by the weekend. This will bring an
increased chance of thunderstorms into the area. A few storms
could be strong to severe over the weekend if this pattern hold
true.

&&

.AVIATION...
Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move
inland affecting all terminals by mid morning. A repeat of Sunday
will occur on Monday with prevailing light showers after 14z and
continuing through 23z. Winds have not been much of an impact but
IFR to LIFR ceilings can be expected as well as temporary
visibilities down to 1sm or less on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain over the eastern Gulf bringing a
continued onshore flow to the coastal waters through the period.
Winds will remain fairly light through the period with seas
remaining 3 feet or less through the remainder of the week.
Unsettled pattern to persist through the first half the week with
showers and thunderstorms...returning to more typical summer
weather pattern by late week with mainly nocturnal convection in
the offshore waters.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  73  84  74 /  90  50  90  20
BTR  83  74  85  74 /  90  40  90  20
ASD  83  73  85  74 /  90  40  90  30
MSY  83  75  85  76 /  90  40  90  40
GPT  82  75  84  76 /  90  40  90  30
PQL  85  73  86  73 /  90  40  90  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
832 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

LAZ059>061-066>068-271400-
Lower Terrebonne-St. Charles-Lower Jefferson-Lower Lafourche-Upper
Lafourche-Upper Jefferson-
832 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT EASTERN ST. CHARLES...EAST CENTRAL
TERREBONNE...EASTERN LAFOURCHE AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISHES...

At 831 AM CDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from St. Rose to near Larose to near Montegut. Movement was
southeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Metairie, Cut Off, Galliano, Avondale, Larose, Jefferson, Harahan,
Westwego, Golden Meadow, Elmwood, Luling, Bridge City, River Ridge,
Ama, Destrehan, Waggaman, St. Rose, New Sarpy, Boutte and Montegut.

These showers may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 2930 9040 2932 9044 2935 9043 2930 9048
      2936 9050 2935 9052 2942 9058 2967 9039
      3005 9038 3002 9015 2951 9017 2930 9033
      2934 9035 2934 9036 2931 9035 2922 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1331Z 309DEG 6KT 2994 9033 2964 9034 2944 9048

24/RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
838 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

MSZ080>082-271415-
Jackson-Harrison-Hancock-
838 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HARRISON...
SOUTHERN HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 838 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Pearlington to Gulfport to near Moss
Point. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Ocean Springs, Long Beach, Moss Point, Bay St.
Louis, Waveland, St. Martin, Diamondhead, Escatawpa, Gautier,
D'iberville, Latimer, Kiln, Pearlington, Lyman, Shoreline Park,
Stennis Space Center, Helena and Gulf Hills.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3036 8841 3034 8845 3038 8878 3043 8885
      3043 8899 3042 8901 3040 8886 3040 8900
      3031 8926 3036 8928 3037 8935 3034 8938
      3034 8934 3031 8933 3018 8950 3018 8957
      3023 8962 3036 8966 3052 8933 3051 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1338Z 113DEG 12KT 3023 8952 3043 8908 3037 8857

24/RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
919 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

LAZ059>062-069-271445-
Orleans-Lower Plaquemines-St. Charles-Upper Lafourche-Upper
Jefferson-
919 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES...SOUTHWESTERN
ORLEANS...EAST CENTRAL LAFOURCHE AND CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISHES...

At 918 AM CDT, a shower was located near Barataria, or 12 miles south
of Marrero, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this shower. This shower
has a history of producing brief rotation. Tropical funnel clouds
are possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Timberlane, Harvey, Marrero, Belle Chasse, Gretna, Jean Lafitte,
Woodmere, Terrytown, Lafitte, Estelle and Barataria.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 2976 9029 2993 8999 2990 8998 2989 8999
      2989 9001 2986 9003 2982 9007 2979 9006
      2978 9007 2974 9007 2966 9001 2966 8997
      2960 9020
TIME...MOT...LOC 1418Z 245DEG 11KT 2972 9017

24/RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
943 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

LAZ059>064-067>069-271515-
Orleans-Lower Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-St. Charles-Lower
Jefferson-Lower Lafourche-Upper Lafourche-Upper Plaquemines-Upper
Jefferson-
943 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL ST.
BERNARD...SOUTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES...SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS...
SOUTHEASTERN LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES
PARISHES...

At 942 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Metairie to 6 miles southwest of Lafitte
to 9 miles west of Leeville. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Chalmette, Galliano, Avondale, Metairie, Marrero,
Harvey, Timberlane, Belle Chasse, Cut Off, Jefferson, Gretna,
Harahan, Westwego, Golden Meadow, Jean Lafitte, Port Fourchon, River
Ridge, Estelle and Leeville.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 2916 9028 2915 9027 2920 9026 2919 9027
      2934 9035 2922 9040 2923 9041 2937 9039
      2965 9025 3004 9023 3002 9011 3007 8994
      2955 8997 2929 9011 2927 9010 2910 9018
      2909 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1442Z 293DEG 8KT 3001 9016 2963 9019 2926 9036

24/RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1023 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

LAZ061>064-067>070-271600-
Orleans-Lower Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Lower Jefferson-Lower St.
Bernard-Lower Lafourche-Upper Plaquemines-Upper Jefferson-
1023 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD...
ORLEANS...SOUTHEASTERN LAFOURCHE...CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN
PLAQUEMINES PARISHES...

At 1022 AM CDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from near Arabi to near Myrtle Grove to 6 miles west of
Port Fourchon. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Chalmette, Marrero, Harvey, East New Orleans,
Timberlane, Belle Chasse, Metairie, Gretna, Jean Lafitte, Lake
Catherine, Woodmere, Violet, Terrytown, Lafitte, Meraux, Poydras,
Myrtle Grove, Estelle and Leeville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these showers, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 2924 9030 2964 9010 3002 9013 3006 8997
      3015 8988 3010 8981 3017 8974 3015 8963
      3002 8972 3000 8985 2993 8978 2965 8976
      2943 8988 2943 8994 2949 8989 2943 9002
      2925 8996 2909 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1522Z 269DEG 11KT 3002 9004 2965 9002 2913 9029

24/RR

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