Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
443 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...

All eyes continue to be on Cristobal as is makes it way through
the northern Gulf, now approaching the outer coastal waters of our
warning area. The appearance of Cristobal continues to be more
than of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm with most of the
heavier convection well east of the center. While some
development has occurred since late last night near the center,
it has not been enough to make any significant change to most of
the forecast.

Cristobal is expected to continue to move generally north until
landfall near Terrebonne Bay late this afternoon before tracking
near Houma and then towards the Baton Rouge by tomorrow morning.
It is important to remember that impacts can be felt far from the
center of a landfalling tropical system and that is even more
prevalent in this case given the structure of Cristobal.

The immediate concerns for our area continue to be heavy rain and
surge. Wind impacts surely cannot be ruled out as well as some
isolated tornadoes. For specific details regarding the impacts
expected from Cristobal in our area, please refer to the Hurricane
Local Statement (HLS) issued by our office.

In regards to expected rainfall across the area, the greater focus
will be east of I-55. Rainfall amounts of generally 3-5 inches can
be expected west of I-55. East of I-55, total rainfall ranging
from 5-8 inches with isolated higher amounts will be possible.
With this in mind, the flood watch has been expanded to include
the southwest Mississippi counties. The entire warning area is now
under the flood watch through Tuesday morning. In addition,
rivers will need to be watched closely throughout the event for
possible flooding.

Conditions will begin to slowly improve late tomorrow and into
Tuesday. By Wednesday, a return to normal daily scattered showers
will persist for the rest of the work week with the weekend
looking rather dry.

&&

.AVIATION...

Northern terminals currently with MVFR ceilings, most southern ones
at IFR ceilings. Temporary IFR visibilities in rainbands. Will be
adding a mention of thunder into the forecasts after 15z. Low
ceilings and occasional low visibilities likely to continue
through about 18z Monday before improvements occur. Anticipate
amendments for wind forecast prior to 12z TAF package issuance
this morning and additional amendments after 15z NHC advisory
issuance to accommodate changing wind forecasts for TS Cristobal.
35

&&

.MARINE...

Conditions will continue to deteriorate through the morning hours
as Tropical Storm Cristobal enters the coastal waters. Tropical
Storm conditions will continue to expand across all of the coastal
waters as the day progresses. For more information regarding this
please refer to the Marine Weather Warning (MWW). Strong onshore
flow will continue into Tuesday even as Cristobal moves away.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  74  83  75 /  70  90 100  60
BTR  83  75  85  77 /  80  90  90  40
ASD  83  75  85  75 /  90 100 100  50
MSY  82  77  85  78 /  90 100 100  40
GPT  81  76  83  76 /  90 100 100  50
PQL  83  74  85  74 /  90 100 100  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ040-050-058-
     060-061-072.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ082.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     TROPICAL STORM   N KENNER                29.98N 90.25W
06/07/2020                   JEFFERSON          LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN KENNER VIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

MEGANWIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
153 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TROPICAL STORM   N PASCAGOULA            30.37N 88.55W
06/07/2020                   JACKSON            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE IN
            PASCAGOULA,MS.

&&

MEGANWIL