Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
352 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Convection has been developing acrs the lakes region into western
and cntl LA. This activity was developing along an outflow
boundary produced by early morning convection acrs NE TX.
Additional support for the storms is being provided by a mid level
shortwave impinging on an area of enhanced moisture over E/SE TX
and SW LA, with instability augmented by sfc heating. So far,
storms have remained below svr limits, but a MRGL risk for severe
weather remains acrs the area for the possibility of isolated
damaging wind gusts.

Latest UA analysis shows low pres lifting NE out of the Great
Lakes, with a persistent longwave trough axis extending south
toward the N Cntl Gulf coast. A series of shortwaves embedded
within the W-NW flow aloft extend from the upper midwest to the NW
Gulf coast. At the sfc, a weak and diffuse frontal boundary
remains acrs the area, with a weak pres gradient resulting in a
light and somewhat vrbl wind field. Mostly clr to partly cloudy
skies in advance of the convection have allowed temperatures to
warm into the lower to middle 90s this aftn.

24

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sctd convection this aftn should diminish some this evening with
the loss of daytime heating. Both CAMs and global models are split
concerning the possibility of additional convection this evening
and overnight via lingering shortwave energy over the area. With
the corridor of higher PW air over the area and somewhat meager
instability, maintained consistency with the previous fcst in
keeping at least slt chc PoPs in the fcst overnight.

Subtropical ridging west of the area will build east acrs TX the
next few days, as the east CONUS trough lifts and deamplifies acrs
the Ohio Valley. PWATs will begin to diminish Thursday into
Friday, leading to less convective coverage the next few days.
Still anticipate at least low end sctd coverage on Thursday, with
only isolated showers or storms on Friday with PWATs lowering to
near 1.5-1.6 inches as the eastern flank of the ridge extends its
influence over the area.

By Friday, sfc high pres becomes re-established acrs the eastern
Gulf. This will allow a moist return flow to develop acrs the
area, with a gradual deepening of moisture through the weekend.
A general weakness will develop acrs the northern Gulf coast as
the mid/upper ridge becomes centered acrs wrn/Cntl TX. The
weakness will linger through the weekend, resulting in a return to
a more typical summertime pattern of diurnally influenced
convection. By early next week, shower and tstm coverage will
begin to increase as the weakness aloft migrates west.

Temperatures through the period are mostly expected to be near
early August climatological normals, with lows in the 70s and
highs in the lower to middle 90s.

24

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines are anticipated through the period. High pres acrs
the NW Gulf will maintain a light and somewhat vrbl wind field the
next few days. The sfc high will eventually become re-established
over the eastern Gulf by the end of the week, with a light to
modt onshore flow developing. Rain chcs will remain limited
through the week, with a return to more seasonal sctd convection
by the weekend.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  94  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
LCH  75  92  74  92 /  30  30   0  20
LFT  73  94  72  94 /  10  30   0  20
BPT  76  92  75  92 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
305 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-062015-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
305 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected through early
evening, with the best chances across southeast Texas and west and
southwest Louisiana. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms exists
across the area, mainly for the possibility of isolated damaging wind
gusts. Otherwise, occasional cloud to ground lightning and brief
heavy rainfall can be expected in the stronger storms.

Additional widely scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible
overnight, but any severe risk is expected to be minimal.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A daily chance of showers and thunderstorms can be expected through
the remainder of the period. Convective coverage is expected to
increase over the weekend and into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-062015-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
305 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Some widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through early this evening, mainly near the coast and over
the coastal lakes and bays. Storms will be capable of producing
occasional cloud to water lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase over the weekend and
into early next week. Winds and seas will be higher near the
stronger storms, with occasional cloud to ground lightning and brief
heavy rainfall also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
349 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

LAZ032-052130-
Evangeline LA-
349 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Beaver, or near Oakdale, moving south at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mamou, Basile, Turkey Creek, Pine Prairie, Beaver, Reddell and
Duralde.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3088 9237 3057 9236 3048 9257 3048 9259
      3055 9260 3057 9258 3058 9260 3087 9260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 348DEG 11KT 3077 9255

K. Kuyper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
409 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

LAZ030-041-052145-
Calcasieu LA-Beauregard LA-
409 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 409 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ragley, moving south at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Westlake, Moss Bluff, Ragley, Buhler, Gillis and Longville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3064 9334 3063 9324 3028 9313 3028 9345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 001DEG 21KT 3055 9329

Jones