Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
929 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows cool front moving through North Texas across the
ArkLaTex. Ahead of the front was a line of strong TSRA, with a
couple of severe thunderstorms across Central Louisiana, mainly
for radar indicated winds above 50 kts. What's left of the outflow
boundary is across lower Acadiana. Radar showing additional
showers and thunderstorms developing across Southeast Texas.

For the forecast, updated evening temperature/dewpoint grids to
reflect the cool pool of air behind the thunderstorms, likely to
moderate a couple of degrees upward to the mid 70s just before
daybreak. Latest HRRR keeps at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the area as the front continues to approach
couples with available moisture and upper level lift. Thus, will
keep the chances in overnight.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/

AVIATION...A line of storms is currently working southeast across
the area with lower vis and gusty winds. While these storms should
exit the area later this evening, additional showers can be
expected through most of the period. This will cause spotty lower
flight categories. Winds outside of the storms will be southwest
and become west to northwest tonight then back more southerly
tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/

DISCUSSION...
A short wave is moving out of the Plains and int the Mid-
Mississippi Valley with the trough axis trailing down into central
Texas. This system will continue to move off to the east, and
bring a surface trough, basically a weak "cool" front/dryline
feature into the forecast area this evening, then stalling near
the coast on Saturday.

Already seeing a good deal of showers and thunderstorms north of
the forecast area with this feature, and the activity will
gradually work its way to the southeast during the evening and
overnight.

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible for the remainder of
the afternoon into early evening while instability is still
adequate, with the main hazards being occasional cloud to ground
lightning and strong gusty winds. Shower activity should continue
through the night, however intensity should decrease.

The trough axis at the surface will stall out on Saturday, keeping
decent chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast,
before the surface feature begins to wash-out by Sunday.

Some lower pops can be expected on Sunday into early next week as
the forecast area is on the west side of the trough, with a dry
northwest flow in the mid levels. Some of this dry air may mix
down during the daytime, allowing for slightly lower dewpoints and
a little less humid conditions.

Surface moisture begins to increase by the middle part of the
week, along with the forecast area still being in a little bit of
weakness as the upper level ridge will be center over the
southwest US. So expect pops to increase to seasonal norms during
that time frame.

Rua

MARINE...
A modest southwest flow will continue tonight ahead of a surface
trough that will near the coastal waters, with winds becoming more
westerly over the weekend, as the trough stalls and dissipates
north of the coast. This trough will briefly increase showers and
thunderstorms for late tonight into Saturday.

Early next week, weak high pressure will be situated over the
northern Gulf with mainly light and variable winds and low seas.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  90  71  93 /  50  20  10  20
LCH  76  89  75  91 /  50  30  10  30
LFT  76  89  74  91 /  40  40  10  30
BPT  76  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
333 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-012100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
333 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms may move across sections of the forecast
area mainly north of the I-10 corridor. Occasional cloud to ground
lightning and strong gusty winds will accompany some of the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop each
afternoon through the weekend, then again for the middle of next
week. Periods of heavy downpours and occasional lightning will be
possible, but severe weather is not expected with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-012100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
333 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few thunderstorms will move into the coastal waters late tonight.
Occasional cloud to water lightning, along with locally higher winds
and seas, will be possible with the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday.
Occasional cloud to water lightning will be possible with these
storms.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop through
Sunday, then again for the middle of next week for the coastal areas,
with isolated activity over the offshore waters each night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1139 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

TXZ180-259-010515-
Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
1139 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TYLER AND EAST
CENTRAL JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1139 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mt. Union, or 7 miles west of Kirbyville, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kirbyville, Magnolia Springs and Mt. Union.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3059 9415 3075 9414 3075 9389 3054 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 283DEG 9KT 3065 9402

Tingler