Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
640 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed this
evening in response to a weak upper level disturbance rotating
around a broad upper low centered over northeast Texas. The
precipitation will continue to move from west to east through the
evening potentially impacting area terminals over the next 6
hours. With the activity expected to come to an end around or
shortly after midnight, early Wednesday morning will be quiet
before another round of scattered precipitation develops across
central Louisiana. Impacts from this activity is expected to
remain confined to LFT and ARA through the day.

VFR CIGs are expected to prevail at all terminals with brief
periods of MVFR CIGs and visibilities in the vicinity of showers.
Winds will remain light and variable overnight becoming more
predominantly westerly on Wednesday.

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/

DISCUSSION...
As I'm sure you've noticed by now, this day is playing out far
different than had been previously expected/advertised for close
to a week now. Drier air aloft encroaching from the west as well
as in wake of this morning's sfc front has overtaken the area and
led to dry conditions for much of the day...with satellite imagery
even showing some breaks in the overcast, especially over the wrn
1/2 of the area. Unfortunately the warming which has come with
those breaks has destabilized the atmosphere enough for it to tap
what moisture remains to spark some convection over the past hour
or so over interior sern TX in closer proximity to the pesky
cutoff low which has been slowly pushing ewd toward the forecast
area. Various high res guidance has been showing a slight uptick
in development through the evening with the passage of the next
disturbance rounding the low before convection simmers down
overnight and through tomorrow. Temperature guidance has continued
its previous trend of seasonal overnight temps with mins progged
in the mid/upper 60s for the vast majority of the forecast area...
this coming after a week or so of above normal lows.

Only significant rain chances for the remainder of the forecast
period look on tap for Tuesday night and Wednesday. With the
cutoff low expected to still be meandering over the srn Plains,
the next significant shortwave progged to round it will help
induce sfc low pressure and an associated cool front which will
sweep across the area Thursday morning. Forecast soundings show
sufficient low-level moisture returning prior to fropa to allow
for convective development ahead of/along the front. SPC is
currently advertising a marginal risk west of the area with good
shear/lapse rates...could see a strong storm or two across the
forecast area (especially the wrn zones) prior to fropa. Could
also see some shower activity linger into Friday as the cutoff
begins to finally open up and slip past the area, but coverage is
not expected to be very high at this time.

With high pressure sfc/aloft forecast to settle over the wrn Gulf
region, the weekend currently looks dry...some guidance is
indicating a weak shortwave to slip east of the area on Saturday
but forecast soundings indicate moisture should be lacking enough
to keep any precip mention out of the forecast for now. Slightly
below normal temps for Friday/Saturday will warm to right around
seasonal average by the end of the forecast period.

MARINE...
As of now, still not expecting any flags on the coastal waters
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  84  63  82 /  40  20  20  40
LCH  68  86  69  85 /  30  10  20  40
LFT  70  86  68  86 /  30  30  10  30
BPT  68  86  70  85 /  40  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...66

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
300 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-272000-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
300 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return by late
afternoon and linger through tonight. Cloud-to-ground lightning and
brief heavy rains will be the primary concerns with the storms,
although the possibility exists for some gusty winds as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible before coverage
increases for late Wednesday night and Thursday as another weak cool
front crosses the region. Cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy
rains will again be the primary concerns with the storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-272000-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
300 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected...with winds and
seas higher near the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through most of
the period...winds and seas will be locally higher near storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
707 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

TXZ201-215-216-261-270045-
Orange TX-Jefferson TX-Hardin TX-Southern Jasper TX-
707 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN AND NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sour Lake, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Lumberton, Vidor, Bevil Oaks, Rose City, Pine Forest,
Lakeview and Weiss Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3016 9446 3026 9443 3029 9402 3006 9404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 274DEG 23KT 3022 9437

Jones

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             FULLERTON               30.99N 92.98W
05/26/2020  E1.00 INCH       VERNON             LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTS AND PICTURES OF MARBLE TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

CASTIGGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
735 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             SOUR LAKE               30.14N 94.40W
05/26/2020  M1.00 INCH       HARDIN             TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC SENT A PHOTO WITH REFERENCE OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL
            NEAR SOUR LAKE.

&&

DJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
750 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             2 E RAGLEY              30.51N 93.20W
05/26/2020  E1.00 INCH       BEAUREGARD         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KPLC RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL EAST OF
            RAGLEY

&&

DJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
807 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             RAGLEY                  30.51N 93.23W
05/26/2020  E1.75 INCH       BEAUREGARD         LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR RAGLEY.

&&

DJONES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
813 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

TXZ215-216-270145-
Orange TX-Jefferson TX-
813 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 813 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Port Acres, or 8 miles southwest of Nederland, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Arthur, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Bridge City, Port Acres
and Southeast Texas Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2994 9413 3004 9382 2999 9381 2998 9383
      2999 9385 2999 9386 2997 9384 2997 9386
      2996 9386 2996 9387 2993 9387 2986 9393
      2984 9392 2985 9393 2984 9394 2981 9409
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 256DEG 25KT 2986 9408

Jones