Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
538 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Just a quick note to users - we have been made aware of a comms
failure that is affecting transmission of our radar data (both
KLCH and KPOE)...at this time, there are no other issues within
the office and products (namely, potential severe weather
products) continue to flow out as needed.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows weak front beginning to move back north across the
20-60nm marine zones this afternoon. Radar showing increased
showers and thunderstorms continuing near and just north of the
frontal zone, a couple of strong storms noted with hail earlier
this afternoon.

The front will continue northward this afternoon and evening,
coupled with the weak shortwave moving across the area, to
continue generating scattered showers and thunderstorms further
inland. The Storm Prediction Center has all of SE TX/C and S LA in
a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorm. Looks like the continued
threat would be hail with the elevated convection.

Weather Prediction Center has all of SE TX/C and S LA in a Marginal
Risk of of Excessive Rainfall, especially if training thunderstorms
commence. Really not looking for widespread areal rainfall with
precipitation totals in the 0.25-0.75" range along the I-10
corridor, locally higher if training commences. Also, most of this
area has been fairly dry lately with either in D0 (Abnormally
Dry) to D1 (Moderate Drought) conditions, which means our soils
have some absorption capacity for the light to moderate rainfall.
Again, heavy rainfall, especially training over urban areas, can
still cause flooding.

The next and most significant upper level shortwave will be
moving eastward across the Gulf states Sunday and Sunday night,
with the surface low expected to track from west to east over the
ArkLaTex region. Guidance continues to show a significant severe
weather threat late Sunday morning into the afternoon/early
evening hours, especially north of the I-10/U.S. 190 corridor.
Still not specific if either an larger MCS or individual
supercells develops, or both. But realize the potential will be
the highest from late Sunday morning across SE TX and the
afternoon hours across C and SC LA. SPC has outlined a Moderate
Risk from the northern sections of Rapides/Avoyelles parishes
eastward into MS/AL, the rest of the region along and north of
U.S. 190 in an Enhanced Risk, and a Slight Risk south of U.S. 190
into the coastal waters. All modes of severe weather (tornadoes,
damaging wind, and large hail) will be possible.

For Monday through early Wednesday, tranquil weather expected
behind the departing storm system. However, another significant
storm system is possible late Wednesday night into Thursday across
the southern U.S.

DML

MARINE...
A weak front will continue northward this afternoon and evening,
allowing onshore flow to resume through Sunday. A significant
upper level disturbance and Pacific cold front will move across on
Sunday night, with a chance of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms
ahead of and along the front. Expect brief offshore flow for Monday,
with onshore flow resuming for Tuesday. The next chance of showers
and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  80  60  78 /  50  90  30   0
LCH  69  81  63  82 /  40  50  10   0
LFT  70  84  65  81 /  50  40  30   0
BPT  70  81  63  83 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
324 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-192030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
324 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
the coast and advance northward this afternoon and evening. There is
a Marginal Risk of severe weather, with a threat of strong to
marginally severe wind gusts and small hail possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
A significant storm system will move through the region Sunday,
bringing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Portions
of Rapides and Avoyelles parishes are outlined in a Moderate Risk,
the rest of the region along and north of U.S. 190 in an Enhanced
Risk, and a Slight Risk south of U.S. 190 to the coast. Damaging wind
gusts, large hail and tornadoes will be possible, mainly from midday
Sunday through late afternoon or early evening. The greatest
potential for severe storms will be north of I-10, where a few
significant severe storms capable of producing large hail or strong
tornadoes will be possible.

Thunderstorms will also be capable of producing frequent lightning
along with torrential downpours. A Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall is outlined for portions of upper southeast Texas and
central Louisiana.

Another rather potent storm system could affect the region next
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-192030-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
324 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
the coastal waters this afternoon. There is a Marginal Risk of
severe weather, with a threat of strong to marginally severe wind
gusts and small hail possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Some strong thunderstorms may develop on Sunday afternoon and
evening with locally higher winds and seas. Southerly winds look to
increase late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the next storm system,
and could become rather strong nearing Small Craft Advisory
conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
553 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

LAZ042-074-182315-
Jefferson Davis-East Cameron-
553 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CAMERON AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISHES...

At 552 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lacassine
National Wildlife Refuge, moving east at 35 mph.

Penny size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Welsh, Lake Arthur, Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge, Klondike,
Thornwell, Lowry and Roanoke.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 56 and
58.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 2992 9299 2999 9305 3008 9296 3008 9289
      3011 9291 3014 9289 3016 9289 3028 9278
      3012 9262 3009 9262 3007 9264 3008 9265
      3006 9268 3006 9269 3004 9272 3004 9262
      2991 9262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 259DEG 31KT 3000 9291

TWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
605 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

LAZ073-074-182330-
West Cameron-East Cameron-
605 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAMERON PARISH...

At 605 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Holly Beach, or
near Sabine National Wildlife, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cameron, Sabine National Wildlife, Holly Beach, Heberts Marina,
Hackberry and Constance Beach.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 2989 9361 2997 9334 2985 9335 2987 9335
      2988 9339 2986 9344 2980 9335 2984 9332
      2984 9326 2990 9323 2999 9327 3001 9321
      2976 9314 2978 9327 2976 9334 2979 9332
      2980 9334 2976 9335 2976 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 256DEG 23KT 2982 9351

TWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
616 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

LAZ042-043-052-074-182345-
Acadia-Jefferson Davis-Vermilion-East Cameron-
616 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CAMERON...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...SOUTHWESTERN ACADIA AND NORTHWESTERN
VERMILION PARISHES...

At 616 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Lake Arthur to 6 miles southwest of
Klondike. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Arthur, Gueydan, Mermentau, Klondike, Morse, Riceville,
Thornwell, Lowry, Wright, Estherwood, Florence Landing and Midland.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 3019 9248 3010 9242 2993 9241 2987 9251
      2989 9279 2995 9284 3014 9280 3019 9271
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 276DEG 25KT 3013 9270 2995 9268

TWH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

LAZ073-TXZ215-216-190030-
West Cameron-Orange-Jefferson-
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CAMERON PARISH...
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

At 700 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Port Acres, or
8 miles southwest of Port Arthur, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Bridge
City, West Orange, Central Gardens, Johnsons Bayou, Sabine Pass, Port
Acres, La Belle and Southeast Texas Regional Airport.

This includes Interstate 10 in Texas between mile markers 845 and
844.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 2971 9420 3000 9421 3007 9372 3005 9361
      2975 9361 2974 9375 2970 9383 2975 9389
      2980 9391 2983 9381 2989 9377 2997 9376
      3000 9379 2998 9387 2985 9392 2984 9395
      2974 9390 2971 9385 2970 9385
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 269DEG 32KT 2984 9404

TWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
710 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

LAZ052-053-190045-
Iberia-Vermilion-
710 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN IBERIA AND
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISHES...

At 709 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Abbeville,
moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Iberia, Abbeville, Kaplan, Forked Island, Avery Island,
Intracoastal City, Erath, Delcambre, Loreauville, Meaux, Esther,
Lydia, Acadiana Regional Airport, Jefferson Island, Coteau, Henry and
Weeks Island.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 2978 9187 2980 9185 2978 9183 2983 9183
      2984 9188 2981 9192 2983 9197 2980 9198
      2978 9204 2979 9230 2986 9234 2997 9234
      3004 9227 3007 9204 3003 9197 3007 9195
      3004 9182 3010 9173 2984 9172 2977 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 267DEG 40KT 2993 9211

TWH