Small Craft Advisory 33, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX
403 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-16 IR/WV imagery and radar data from
KHGX show majority of the cloud cover and convection from the
remnants of Beta on the northeast side of the center, which is
currently in the vicinity of the Houston metro as of 3:00 AM CDT.
Heaviest rainfall that's occurred overnight has been across
southeast Texas, especially between Beaumont and Woodville, TX
where radar estimates between 1.5-3.0 inches of rain has fallen
since yesterday evening.

The remnants of Beta will lift northeastward across the CWA
today. Very heavy rainfall, capable of leading to flash flooding,
will continue to be the main threat today, especially across the
Texas Lakes Region, Central Louisiana, and northern Acadiana. An
additional 2 to 4 inches of rain will be possible in this area
today. Rain chances will dwindle from southwest to northeast
through the afternoon and evening as the remnant low exits the
district and drier air filters in on the back side. As a result
of the heavy cloud cover and rain, high temperatures will range
from the mid-70s north to upper-70s/lower-80s south. A Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the CWA through 10 PM CDT
this evening.

A short-wave trough will begin to lift northeastward towards the
Ohio Valley from the Plains on Thursday, but its axis will be
slow to progress eastward. Wraparound moisture and weak lifting on
the PVA side of the short-wave may produce isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday, but most locations should remain dry.
Global models are in fair agreement that a weak mid-level cut-
off low will break away from the aforementioned short-wave and
sit over central/eastern Texas through the weekend. However,
models solutions quickly diverge beyond Friday with regards to its
strength what the cut-off low does. Will play the conservative
side for now and lean more towards the drier and warmer side of
things and keep PoPs low through the weekend and into early next
week. Although forecast confidence isn't really high at this time,
ridging aloft and surface high pressure should keep conditions
mainly dry the first half of the upcoming week and keep
temperatures near or slightly above seasonal average.

Tidal gauges on the southeast Texas/southwest Louisiana coasts are
still running about 2-3 feet above predicted levels. Therefore, kept
the Coastal Flood Warning going for Jefferson County in Texas, as
well as Cameron and Vermilion Parishes in Louisiana until 10 PM
CDT tonight. However, this warning may need to be converted into a
Coastal Flood Advisory if water levels begin to come down through
the day. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM
CDT for Iberia and St. Mary Parishes.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will gradually improve through the day
as remnants of Beta continue to push northeastward into inland
Louisiana today. A strong pressure gradient along the northern
Gulf of Mexico will keep moderate to occasionally strong south or
southwest winds on the Gulf waters through the morning, then
decrease by the afternoon. Agitated seas between 5 to 8 feet may
persist, especially on the outer Gulf waters this morning before
decreasing this afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory for the
near-shore waters will likely be allowed to expire at 1200z/0700
CDT, but will continue on the offshore waters until 1700z/1200
CDT. Small craft should exercise caution once the advisories are
dropped, at least through this evening. High pressure will settle
in by Thursday afternoon and winds and seas will become very
favorable for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  67  77  64 /  90  60  30  20
LCH  79  69  81  67 /  80  30  20  10
LFT  83  71  81  67 /  80  40  30  20
BPT  79  69  81  67 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ052-
     073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ053-
     054.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ215.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ470-
     472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ435-450-
     452-455.

&&

PUBLIC...67 (WFO BRO)

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

LAZ027>033-041>045-055-TXZ180-201-216-259>262-241000-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Lower St. Martin-Tyler-Hardin-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ053-054-241000-
Iberia-St. Mary-
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ052-073-074-TXZ215-241000-
Vermilion-West Cameron-East Cameron-Jefferson-
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ470-472-475-241000-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-241000-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal lakes and bays of
the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ435-450-452-455-241000-
Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.