Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
656 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front
will move across the area this evening. Some of these storms will
have the potential to produce visibility restricting heavy
rainfall and strong wind gusts of 40 knots or greater.

The cold front will push through the area late tonight into early
Friday morning with moderate northerly winds developing in its
wake. Overrunning light showers will continue early Friday morning
with the precipitation coming to an end before sunrise. Skies will
improve to VFR by mid morning which will prevail through the
remainder of the taf period.

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020/

UPDATE...
Have extended Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97 east and south to
include the remainder of Southeast Texas and parts of Central and
Southwest Louisiana, basically west of a Rapides to Cameron line.
Conditions are favorable for summertime type pulse severe storms
with large hail and downburst winds to develop over the immediate
forecast area through shortly after the loss of daytime heating.
Also, bow echo severe feature in Houston's area is looking like it
will hold together and move in later this evening with damaging
winds, large hail, and even a spin up or two along the segmented
bow features. The watch is out through 10/03Z or 10 pm local time.
Grids and products have been updated.

Rua
, some of which could be
strong to severe,
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020/

SYNOPSIS...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97 has been issued this aftn for all of
SE TX with the exception of Jefferson and Orange Counties.
Regional radar mosaic shows convection progressing quickly east
toward SE TX. Some isolated showers and storms have also begun
developing near the Lakes region ahead of the main cluster.

This activity was occurring in concert with shortwave energy
crossing the region and the development of sfc low pres along a
frontal boundary acrs TX. This front has been nearly stationary
acrs cntl LA into E cntl TX through the day. Ahead of the
boundary, considerable warming has been ongoing as enough sun has
filtered through thin high clouds, allowing temperatures to climb
into the middle and upper 80s acrs the area.

24

DISCUSSION...
HiRes progs and CAM guidance show convection progressing east acrs
SE TX and into SW LA through the evening. Low level warming has
been sufficient to strengthen instability acrs the region, and
this, combined with steep midlevel lapse rates and deep layer
shear, will maintain an environment conducive to strong to severe
convection through this evening, with large hail and damaging wind
gusts the primary threats. Convection could begin to weaken some
by late evening as instability begins to diminish.

Convection will continue to move east acrs southern LA overnight,
as the sfc low slides east. In the wake of the low and its
trailing cold front, winds will shift northeast, bringing a cooler
airmass into the region. By early Friday morning, temperatures
should cool into the mid 50s north to around 60 south.
Very subtle mid level ridging will translate over the region
Friday, while sfc high pres builds south and east acrs the
southeast CONUS. Thus, cooler and drier conditions will continue
through the day Friday, and with highs only reaching the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Closed upper low over CA will remain more or less anchored in
place through Friday, before finally shifting east on Saturday.
The low will transition into an open wave by Saturday night, as it
ejects into the southern plains while assuming a neutral tilt.
Moisture will rapidly deepen again on Saturday with low level flow
becoming southerly as the sfc high moves east, while aloft
strengthening southwesterly flow spreads into the region. Precip
water values will approach max values for this time of year by
Sunday morning (1.8 - 2.0 inches). In addition to this, instability
is expected to increase, with mid and low level jet dynamics and
deepening shear setting up favorable conditions for a significant
severe weather threat from late Saturday into Sunday.

Showers and tstms will begin to increase acrs TX Saturday,
spreading into the area by late aftn, bcmg more nmrs to widespread
overnight and into Sunday. Storms that develop will be capable of
producing all modes of severe weather, although shear profiles and
wind fields suggest the primary threats will be damaging winds and
tornadoes. With unusually high moisture over the region, heavy
rainfall will also accompany some storms, and localized excessive
rainfall and flooding will be possible.

The front is expected to sweep through the area late Sunday, with
high pres building into the region by early next week. Much cooler
and drier weather can be expected, with lows possibly falling into
the middle 40s acrs our northern zones by Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings. Aftn highs both days are expected to range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

24

MARINE...
Light SW winds will shift N to NE tonight as a cold front moves
through the region. Showers and tstms will increase as the front
moves through, with offshore flow strengthening in its wake.
Exercise caution conditions are expected to develop over the
coastal waters tonight. Moderate to strong offshore flow can be
expected through Friday, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for the waters beyond 20 NM during the day. Winds will shift
back to the SE on Saturday as the sfc high slides east.

Another front will cross the region Saturday into Sunday, bringing
another chc for showers and storms, and some storms could be
strong. Winds will shift NW in the wake of the front, then
gradually toward the northeast by early next week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  69  46  75 /  80  10   0  60
LCH  60  72  54  77 /  70  10   0  60
LFT  60  72  54  78 /  70  10   0  50
BPT  62  73  58  76 /  80  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for GMZ470-472-
     475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 4 AM CDT Friday through Friday
     morning for GMZ470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 4 AM CDT Friday through Friday
     afternoon for GMZ450-452-455.

&&

AVIATION...66

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
417 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

TXZ180-201-259>262-102130-
Tyler-Hardin-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-
Southern Newton-
417 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

The main threat with any severe storms will be damaging winds and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

More widespread thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Sunday.
Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will all be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late Saturday into Sunday. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ215-216-102130-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Jefferson-Orange-
417 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected this
evening and overnight. Some storms could be strong to marginally
severe this evening, capable of producing damaging wind gusts or
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

More widespread thunderstorms are expected Saturday into Sunday.
Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will all be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late Saturday into Sunday. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

GMZ470-472-475-102130-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
417 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected as a front moves
through the area. Offshore winds will strengthen in the wake of the
front, and small craft should exercise caution late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will return again Saturday into
early Sunday as a Pacific front approaches and moves across the
northwest Gulf. Some storms will be capable of strong wind gusts and
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-102130-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
417 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected as a front moves
through the area. Offshore winds will strengthen in the wake of the
front, but should remain below exercise caution criteria.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will return again Saturday into
early Sunday as a Pacific front approaches and moves across the
northwest Gulf. Some storms will be capable of strong wind gusts and
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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