Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Lake Charles, LA

976 
WWUS54 KLCH 271806
SVSLCH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1206 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

LAC011-271815-
/O.CAN.KLCH.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-201127T1830Z/
Beauregard LA-
1206 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BEAUREGARD
PARISH IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3033 9313 3041 9313 3052 9288 3027 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 264DEG 25KT 3039 9307 

$$

LAC003-019-053-271830-
/O.CON.KLCH.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-201127T1830Z/
Jefferson Davis LA-Calcasieu LA-Allen LA-
1206 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...EAST CENTRAL CALCASIEU AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALLEN PARISHES...

At 1205 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Buller, or 9
miles south of Reeves, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Fenton, Topsy and Buller. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9313 3041 9313 3052 9288 3027 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 264DEG 25KT 3039 9307 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Jones

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1112 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...
All in all, the inherited grids/zones look in good shape as is.
Widespread rain with embedded showers/few storms continues to
develop/spread ewd across the forecast area in association with
the inland-moving frontal boundary (now basically draped along the
edges of the forecast area) and a passing disturbance aloft. With
regional 12z soundings looking rather wet (KLCH showed a PWAT of
1.91 inches which is above the max moving average for the date)
and an increasing LLJ advancing in from the west, additional
showers/storms seem rather certain for the afternoon. The heavier
showers/storms could produce brief heavy rains with rates up to a
couple of inches per hour, but given our recent dry conditions,
flash flooding will be possible, but not widely expected. Will
also be on the lookout for possible severe weather given
increasing CAPE values/sufficient shear...as stated previously,
limited instability/lapse rates should keep severe storms at bay.

Update already sent.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/

AVIATION...A warm front now extending along the Interstate 10
corridor will continue to retreat north today in advance of a
strong shortwave trof currently positioned over the southwest
CONUS. With deep tropical moisture in place and occasional
disturbances moving through a west to southwest flow aloft,
scattered to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms can be
expected across the area. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities
ahead.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is indicating showers developing in the WAA
with the approach of the next speed max moving into Texas this
morning. The warm front will continue to lift north into northern
portions of the forecast area today before advancing back to the
south this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms get going.
Overall the forecast reasoning has not changed that much from
previous forecasts as an upper low approaches the area from the
west and moisture continues to increase very high rain chances
will continue from this morning through Sunday morning.

Now that we are getting into the onset of the event some finer
details are being seen as to how things will evolve and there
appears to be two primary maximum rain periods with one being
today and the other Saturday night and Sunday morning with the
surface low and cold frontal passage. Still a marginal risk for
some elevated severe thunderstorms today with hail the primary
threat. There also remains a slight risk of flash flooding with
the potential for high rainfall rates as PWs start to approach 2
inches

Still on track for freezing temperatures over a large portion of
the forecast area on Tuesday morning.

Still some model differences with the next system Wednesday and
Thursday. Now the GFS is faster with less rainfall potential and
the ECMWF and CMC are slower with more rainfall. Will continue to
retain chance POPs for now until the details get ironed out.

MARINE...
Still looking for a low pressure to cross the gulf coast states
with an associated cold front This will cause increasing winds and
seas for early next week. Until then unsettled weather with
showers and thunderstorms expected off and on through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  53  60  49 /  90  70  30  90
LCH  76  59  64  55 /  90  90  70  90
LFT  78  61  66  58 /  80  90  70  90
BPT  77  61  65  54 /  90  80  80  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

PUBLIC...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
521 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-281130-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
521 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west central Louisiana and
southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low, however
there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today with hail
being the main threat. Also areas of heavy rainfall are possible
today and there is a slight risk for excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is slight risk for excessive rainfall this weekend. Through
Sunday, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible across the
region and this will likely cause area rivers to go above flood
stage. The first freezing temperatures are expected across much of
the area Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ435-455-470-472-475-281130-
Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
521 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A storm system moving through this weekend will result in a moderate
offshore flow developing behind it overnight Sunday into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-450-452-281130-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
521 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A storm system moving through this weekend will result in a moderate
offshore flow developing behind it overnight Sunday into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.