Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

A weak perturbation tracking across central WY early this afternoon
will be approaching the Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon. This
combined with upslope (somewhat moist) flow should support the
initiation of scattered thunderstorms along the Laramie Range west
of Cheyenne. Overall 0-6km shear is strong 35-45kt with MLCAPE
values 500 to 1500 J/KG (highest values southern NE panhandle and
southwest NE). Short term Hi-Res model guidance agrees that a
cluster of storms should move eastward across the central and
southern NE Panhandle into portions of southwest NE later this
evening. Lack of large scale lift and only a weak southerly low-
level jet leads to low overall confidence in storms progressing very
far east tonight. Will keep the higher pops confined to the
Panhandle and taper farther to the east. As far as severe, cannot
rule out the possibility across mainly the central and southern
Panhandle this evening. Large hail and wind damage appear to be the
threats.

Heights begin to rise Thursday as the upper level ridge axis shifts
from the Rockies into the western High Plains. H850mb temperatures
rise several degrees Thursday, and highs will reflect this and
western Nebraska nears 90F. A weak disturbance appears it will be
rounding the top of the ridge axis and crossing the area from about
midday through the evening hours. Confidence is high that scattered
thunderstorms will again develop on the higher terrain to the west
and attempt to push eastward into western NE on an isolated basis
Thursday night. Lesser confidence that a couple of isolated storms
could develop across northern Nebraska during the late afternoon or
early evening. There is some signal from the CAMs of this occurring
but the lack of any boundary for convection to focus leads to the
low confidence.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Upper level ridge axis remains anchored south to north along the
southern and western High Plains through Saturday. The ECMWF matches
the DAY 4 SPC severe outlook and brings a decent wave around the
crest of the ridge through WY and into western NE by Saturday
afternoon. A cluster of storms results and moves eastward across the
area Saturday evening. Temperatures will quite warm Friday through
Sunday with the ridge axis aloft. Highs in the 90s most areas are
expected. Rather humid conditions expected as well with upper 60s to
lower 70s surface dew points working there way to the west into
western Nebraska Friday into Saturday. The ridge flattens some early
next week allowing a weak cold front to move southward into the area
by Monday. Highs cool slightly by early next week with highs
Mon/Tue in the mid 80s to around 90F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop and move across portions of western and southwest Nebraska
through the overnight. Thunderstorms are expected to diminish by
early morning. Have put the mention of thunderstorms in the
forecast for KLBF but left the mention out for KVTN as confidence
is much lower in seeing any thunderstorm activity across north
central Nebraska. Winds will be gusty within thunderstorms and
will also become strong across the northern forecast area tomorrow
afternoon with gust near 20 kts possible. VFR conditions should
prevail tomorrow afternoon and evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-070500-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020 /1047 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into the early morning
hours, mainly in the northwestern Sandhills and portions of
southwestern Nebraska. Brief heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds
and frequent lightning are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible nearly every day, mainly
during the late afternoon or evening hours, for parts of the
area.
Some storms may be severe Saturday evening in the Sandhills,
while the potential is unclear for Sunday and beyond.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected overnight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1125 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

NEZ004-094-060615-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
1125 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM MDT...

At 1125 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gordon, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Hoover Lake, Irwin and Shell Lake State Wildlife Management
Area.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 101 and 106, and
between mile markers 126 and 131.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10184 4289 10176 4276 10238 4284 10245
      4300 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 243DEG 24KT 4284 10233

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1257 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NEZ038-060645-
Custer NE-
1257 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
145 AM CDT...

At 1257 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eddyville, or 20 miles northeast of Lexington, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burr Oak, Intersection of Highway 183 and Cumro Road and Cumro.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 73 and 86.

LAT...LON 4106 9968 4125 9939 4105 9926 4104 9935
      4105 9967
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 243DEG 8KT 4104 9955

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1205 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NEZ004-060645-
Sheridan NE-
1205 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 AM MDT...

At 1204 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southeast of Rushville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Billys Lake and Argo Hill.

LAT...LON 4234 10233 4250 10238 4268 10208 4224 10206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0604Z 246DEG 13KT 4249 10227

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1215 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NEZ094-060700-
Western Cherry NE-
1215 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
100 AM MDT...

At 1214 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Gordon, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Merriman, Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara River, Irwin and
Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 114 and 136.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 213 and 230.

LAT...LON 4280 10207 4290 10207 4299 10170 4274 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 261DEG 19KT 4286 10199

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
128 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NEZ038-060715-
Custer NE-
128 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY UNTIL
215 AM CDT...

At 128 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Arnold, or 21 miles east of Stapleton, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arnold, Callaway, Finchville, Pleasant Hill and Milldale.

This includes Highway 92 between mile markers 248 and 255, and
between mile markers 257 and 272.

LAT...LON 4127 10019 4145 10023 4154 9980 4130 9970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 261DEG 19KT 4138 10012

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1259 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NEZ094-060745-
Western Cherry NE-
1259 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
145 AM MDT...

At 1259 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Merriman to 13 miles southeast of Gordon.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara River, Intersection of Highway 61
and Shadbolt Road and Highway 61 crossing the Snake River.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 198 and 224.

LAT...LON 4291 10122 4253 10171 4263 10205 4291 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 0659Z 274DEG 20KT 4286 10170 4267 10200

CDC