Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1146 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Isolated thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon and
evening in the northwestern Nebraska panhandle. A better chance for
thunderstorms will come Wednesday afternoon and evening as a surface
cold front will move into Nebraska later tonight from the northwest.
The front is expected to be slow moving and eventually stall over
central into southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon.

A southerly low level jet will develop over western Nebraska this
evening. At the same time, a moderately strong shortwave trough
will track northeastward from eastern Wyoming into the Dakotas.
Surface bound CAPE values are expected to be over 1000 J/kg, but
will remain largely capped. Surface dew points will be in the 40s to
50s, which will promote large temperature/dew point spreads. Any
storm that develops will be high based and isolated in nature, thus
POPs will only remain in the 20 to 30 percent range. The main
concern with these storms is strong outflow winds.

The potential for storm activity is much greater on Wednesday. The
frontal boundary will extend from southwest to northeast Nebraska on
Wednesday afternoon. Surface convergence along this front should
weaken the cap sufficiently and promote thunderstorm development.
The combination of steep mid level lapse rates and surface dew
points in the 60s will yield CAPE values of 3000 J/kg. The pooling
of moisture ahead of the front will lead to PWAT values of 1.4 to
1.8 inches which could lead to heavy rainfall. Main threats
associated these storms will be large hail, strong winds, and heavy
downpours. Models indicate storm development beginning in the mid to
late afternoon and should move out of the area Wednesday evening
fairly quickly as storms become outflow dominated and develop
southeast away from the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

Near zonal flow aloft will be in place across the region Thursday.
A large ridge of high pressure will be in place from west TX into
AZ, with our region on the southern periphery of the stronger
westerlies. A weak shortwave embedded within the flow could help in
the development of isolated TSTMS late Thursday afternoon and
evening. Confidence is rather low on this occurring though as no
real low-level focus/boundary in place for convection to develop. A
better chance appears to come late Friday afternoon and evening,
primarily across northern Nebraska where a cold front will be
approaching during peak heating. A bit stronger shortwave (compared
to Thursday) will also be moving across the Northern Plains. The
southern flank of this wave will be across northern Nebraska around
00Z Saturday helping to enhance lift. A weak cold front crosses the
area Friday night on the backside of the shortwave. Not much cooler
behind the front with mid 80s to lower 90s still expected Saturday.
The upper ridging then begins to build northward Sunday into the
first of next week. This will lead to mostly dry conditions and
continued hot with highs in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

The ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms across western
Nebraska will continue to pose a strong sfc wind gust
hazard...G40-48KT overnight. This hazard will abate as the LLWS
shifts east into ncntl Nebraska around 09z.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage is expected 21z-04z
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening, mainly affecting areas
along and east of highway 83. Isolated thunderstorm may develop during
the same time frame west of highway 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Meltzer/Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
319 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-082030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
319 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020 /219 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the Panhandle and
northwest Nebraska through the evening. Risk of severe storms is
low, but a few stronger storms may be capable of small hail and
strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

The severe weather threat spreads into the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the
greatest potential for areas along and east of Highway 83. Along
with large hail and damaging winds, an isolated tornado and
localized flooding is also possible.

Thunderstorm chances continue into Thursday for most areas east
of the panhandle. Severe risk remains marginal with hail and
brief strong winds being the main concerns.

Additional storms are possible Friday and Saturday evenings,
mainly in the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. Severe
potential remains uncertain.

Heat index values in the upper 90s nearly region wide on Wednesday
may result in heat related illness for susceptible people.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather and
rainfall reports to the NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE GORDON            42.81N 102.19W
07/08/2020  M59 MPH          SHERIDAN           NE   AWOS

&&

JGOMEZ

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