Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

A frontal passage and weak mid-level shortwave will help to trigger
some scattered thunderstorms across portions of northern Nebraska.
For the most part, the best instability (CAPE over 2000 J/kg and the
steepest lapse rates) will be just north of the the Nebraska border
in southern South Dakota. Enough uncertainty exists in thunderstorm
placement , though, that a few stronger or isolated severe storms
could drift south and impact north central Nebraska. The main
threats with these storms will be large hail, brief gusty winds, and
brief heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate across
South Dakota by late afternoon and finally impact our area after 7pm
CDT. Thunderstorms will gradually diminish over the overnight as
they encounter a more stable airmass.

Dry weather returns Tuesday morning before another round of
thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon through the
evening. These storms will be triggered by a surface trough and will
impact mainly the eastern Panhandle and into portions of southwest
Nebraska. Instability will be limited and confidence in mature
thunderstorm development is low. Main concern with these storms will
be strong wind gusts as storms quickly develop and dissipate before
large hail can develop. Timing for thunderstorms will mainly be
after 00Z and end by 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

A better chance of thunderstorms arrives on Wednesday afternoon and
into the evening as a cold front gets dragged across the northern
Plains. Current guidance shows severe thunderstorms will impact much
of the forecast area. Best times for thunderstorms will be between
1pm CDT and midnight CDT. Heavy rainfall and large hail is expected
out of these storms initially. Strong winds will become more of a
threat as the event evolves and thunderstorms move eastward. While
this event looks very probable, there is still some uncertainty in
the timing and location of strongest storms. This will be ironed out
over the next couple forecasts.

There is another chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorms on
Thursday and Saturday, there is still plenty of uncertainty to
warrant much more than low chance pops (30%) in the forecast at this
time. Drier weather returns for Sunday as high pressure builds back
into the area.

Plenty of warm air advection into the region will keep surface
temperatures in the 90s through the end of next week. The warmest
temperatures will be across western and southwest Nebraska (mid 90s
to low 100s) where the strongest warm air surge is expected.
Elsewhere, temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
will still be close to reaching heat advisory criteria especially on
Wednesday and Saturday. Will need to monitor this closely over the
next couple days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across
northern nebraska this evening and overnight affecting areas
north of highway 2 until about 08z. The fate of the thunderstorm
activity across the panhandle is uncertain at this time but
likely would dissipate this evening (04z). Otherwise, VFR is
expected across western and north central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
309 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-072015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
309 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 /209 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of the
Panhandle, Sandhills, and north central Nebraska. The greatest
chances of severe storms will be north of Highway 20. The main
hazards of these storms will be large hail, strong winds, and
brief downpours that could lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Additional thunderstorm chances exist Tuesday evening in western
Nebraska, mainly along and west of Highway 83, and Wednesday
evening for the Sandhills and eastward. A few storms each evening
may be severe with large hail and strong winds being the primary
concerns. Storm chances will continue into Thursday and Friday, at
this time severe weather chances remain uncertain.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible on Tuesday,
with the combination of hot temperatures and low relative
humidity expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Meltzer/Gomez

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1020 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW OGALLALA          41.12N 101.77W
07/06/2020  M46 MPH          KEITH              NE   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KOGA OGALLALA AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1023 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 9 S ARTHUR              41.45N 101.71W
07/06/2020  M41 MPH          ARTHUR             NE   MESONET

            MESONET STATION NB067 ARTHUR 8S.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1024 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N OSHKOSH             41.49N 102.35W
07/06/2020  M50 MPH          GARDEN             NE   MESONET

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
            FROM 6 N OSHKOSH. MESONET STATION NB071
            OSHKOSH 6N.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1025 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 S ARTHUR              41.45N 101.71W
07/06/2020  M41 MPH          ARTHUR             NE   MESONET

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
            FROM 9 S ARTHUR. MESONET STATION NB067
            ARTHUR 8S.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1031 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

NEZ009-010-027-028-070415-
Loup NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-Rock NE-
1031 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCK...EASTERN
LOUP...GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1030 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 19 miles
north of Taylor, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burwell, Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, Homestead Knolls
Campground, Virginia Smith Dam, Horseshoe Bend Lake, Hannamon Bayou
Campground, Nunda Shoal Campground, Deverre, Valley View Flat
Campground, Kent Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area and
Gables.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 133 and 142.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4202 9947 4213 9933 4191 9878 4178 9898
      4175 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 311DEG 26KT 4205 9933

CDC