Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
616 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

There is a weak disturbance that moves in from the west that
could aid in triggering an isolated thunderstorm or two across
western Nebraska and southern SD then move into the western
portions of the CWA, mainly across the NW Sandhills. However,
given the environment although there is enough instability to
sustain a thunderstorm that enters the CWA, severe thunderstorms
look less likely. CAPE values around 1000 to 1500 J/kg with shear
around 30-45 kts mainly across the northwest Sandhills will pose
at least a marginal threat for a strong to severe storm to
develop. Did mention at least an isolated chance for shower or
thunderstorm across the southwest CWA, however there is greater
CIN across southwest Nebraska and less shear so thunderstorms are
less likely but can't be completely ruled out. PoP chances
diminish after midnight.

As for Monday, one more day of hot temperatures with southeast wind
flow and 850mb temps around 30 degrees celsius. The warmest
temperatures will be seen across southwest Nebraska where 850 temps
near 33 degrees celsius will be, sfc temps will reach the triple
digits. The air mass will remain mostly dry so heat indicies will
remain low despite the hot temperatures. Min RH values will drop
into the teens across western and southwest Nebraska, however
winds are not expected to be strong keeping fire weather concerns
elevated but not critical.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

There continues to be model discrepancies with the progression of
the shortwave trof and timing. The NAM develops convection
earlier in the day and a little farther west, while the EC and GFS
a trending slower with storms developing later in the afternoon
and evening. The EC and GFS project the trof farther east with the
best threat of storms mainly east of highway 83, with storms
forming in the late afternoon then continue pushing eastward. That
being said any storm that does develop initially will have the
potential for rapid upscale growth and the potential for strong to
severe storms with the initial thunderstorms, with strong winds
and large hail being the main hazards. Then as the we had towards
the evening hours the threat changes to more of a heavy rain
threat, this would mainly be across north central Nebraska.

Wednesday will be cooler with the passage of the cold front, highs
will drop into the 80s. Then high pressure begins to build in
warmer temperatures up heading into the holiday weekend with highs
in the 90s. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday through Sunday, however widespread chances are
uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

VFR will continue through the forecast period for western and
north central Nebraska terminals. Other than an isolated
thunderstorm in the panhandle this evening, wind is the primary
aviation weather concern with 20+ kt gusts through sundown
tonight and again tomorrow afternoon. Low level wind shear may
briefly be an issue overnight, depending where the jet develops
and how much it strengthens.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
335 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-292045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
335 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 /235 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible across parts of
western Nebraska this evening. The area of concern is generally
along and west of highway 61 and the hazards are large hail and
wind damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

The potential for range fire development will be elevated Monday
afternoon along and west of highway 61 where humidity will fall
to around 15 percent. Wind speeds are expected to remain below
25 mph.

Farther east, parts of north central Nebraska could see heat
indices approach or exceed 100 degrees Monday afternoon. Weather
conditions are being monitored for a possible heat advisory across
Holt and Boyd counties.

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible across Sheridan
county Monday evening and the hazards are large hail and wind
damage.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon
and evening across north central Nebraska and potentially,
western Nebraska. The hazards are large hail, damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall which could lead to flooding in some
areas. The risk of tornado development is uncertain at this time
and later forecasts will refine the severe weather forecast.

Isolated, mainly late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
possible Wednesday through Saturday. The risk of severe weather
is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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