Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
320 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

The forecast challenge is pops as the upper low over south central
Canada is slow to move east through Monday. At 2 PM CT the surface
analysis showed a trough extending southwest from over the northwest
sandhills to the Sidney. A lone thunderstorm developed west of
Chappell and dissipated while moving east. Models in good agreement
isolated thunderstorms to redevelop in the west and move eastward
through 9 pm with the surface trough east to a line from near
Valentine south to Mullen and Stapleton at 7 pm.  Moisture pooling
in advance of the surface trough resulting in MUCAPE values over
3000 J/Kg and 0-1km CAPE values from 1200-1750 J/kg generally east
of Highway 83 to fuel storm development late this afternoon and
evening. While cloudy at the start of the day, clouds cleared with
steep lapse rates across the area. Short-term models create a spread
where forecast trends toward a line of thunderstorms forming

Storms that develop will begin to exit the area by 10 pm with the
threat for severe storms ending for tonight. Tonight low
temperatures will drop into the 50s throughout with a few locales in
eastern Boyd, Holt and Wheeler counties in the lower 60s by
daybreak.

Sunday into Sunday night an elongated area of low pressure will
extend from the northern into the central plains. The chance for
thunderstorms increase with the heating of the day and shortwaves
embedded into the upper low. There is a marginal risk for severe
storms Sunday evening. High temperatures Sunday will reach into the
80s north to lower 90s in the far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Little change in the weather pattern Monday and Tuesday as the upper
lows influence lingers for isolated to scattered thunderstorms and
cooler temperatures. By midweek the upper ridge strenghtens across
the intermountain region to the west and builds eastward for a break
in the convection. Then Thursday and Friday the threat for storm
development returns. A frontal system will move east and south
across the central Plains with convection daily. Temperatures trend
upwards through the week from the upper 70s at the start to the
middle 80s by weeks end.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Visual flight rules expected through 18Z Sunday. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms will develop after 21Z along and near Highway
61 and move east through western and north central Nebraska.
Models show a spread for convection where scattered thunderstorms
will increase in coverage while moving east of Highway 83. Storms
should be high based with ceilings around 6kft while moving east
and south through 9 pm into central Nebraska. As storms exit east
visual flight rules overnight, although patchy fog in a few locals
by daybreak.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

High flow will linger on the North Platte River at North Platte as
releases from Kingsley Dam continue. The river gauge will
flunctuate near 5.7 feet through Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Keck
LONG TERM...Keck
AVIATION...Keck
HYDROLOGY...Keck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-212000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 /150 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and near
Highway 61 from Merriman to Ogallala where a few severe storms are
possible. Storm development is most likely between 2 pm and 10 pm
and the area of concern for severe weather is generally along and
east of a line from Merriman to North Platte, Ansley and
Bartlett. The severe weather hazards are large hail greater than 1
inch and wind damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday, mainly affecting
north central Nebraska. An isolated strong or severe storm is
possible Sunday along and east of a line from Broken Bow to
Bassett. Large hail and wind damage are the severe weather
hazards. The risk of severe weather Monday appears low at this
time.

Scattered thunderstorms are also possible Thursday and Friday.
The risk of severe weather is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
352 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NEZ057>059-202130-
Perkins NE-Lincoln NE-Keith NE-
352 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PERKINS...
SOUTHEASTERN KEITH AND SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT/330 PM MDT/...

At 351 PM CDT/251 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of Elsie, or 22 miles east of Grant,
moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wallace and Dickens.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ for southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4086 10144 4104 10141 4104 10085 4077 10089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 276DEG 20KT 4095 10133

Jacobs