Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Towering cumulus and isolated thunderstorms have developed across
north central Nebraska where a few strong to severe storms have
developed. Other towering cumulus developing along a north to south
surface trough in the western Sandhills. Temperatures reaching the
upper 80s most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be ongoing early this evening.
The latest SPC day 1 outlook has a slight risk for severe storms
across all of western and north central Nebraska this evening. 0-6km
bulk shear 35-45kt and SBCAPES as high as 2000-3000 J/KG available
as storms develop. An eastward push of drier air ongoing from the
panhandle into the wester Sandhills as a focus for storm initiation
this afternoon as well. The NAM and GFS both show a mid level
disturbance now reaching the northwest Sandhills and moving eastward
into this evening. The HREF and NAMNest both show increasing
thunderstorm growth from eastern Cherry southwest across west
central and southwest Nebraska by 23Z with upscale growth
southeastward through mid evening. With limited turning of winds
surface and aloft and moderate to strong deep layer shear, storm
mode favors at least a few linear lines of storms to develop late
this afternoon and evening. Scattered coverage of storms is likely
across the southeast half of the area this evening. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threat. Isolated very large hail to
2 inches diameter hail is also possible. Discrete storms which form
will also be capable of a brief tornado before storms develop into a
linear line. Storms should exit eastern areas by0 3Z to 04Z.

On Thursday, in the wake of the disturbance crossing the region this
evening, Thursday morning and early afternoon look to be free of any
shower or thunderstorms. There is a disturbance moving across South
Dakota during the morning and early afternoon which should stay
north of the area. As the trough/disturbance approaches the mid-
missouri valley, thunderstorms should initiate and may develop in
the northeast counties late afternoon and evening. The SPC day2
outlook has adjusted to move the slight risk area further northeast
to include only areas north of Valentine through O'Neill. Storms
initiating in the higher terrain of WY and CO will move east for a
few storms possibly making it into the far western Sandhills late
afternoon. Isolated showers and storms possible in the west and
south during the evening, with again slightly better chances in the
northeast. A cold front to drop south through the area overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

For Friday and Saturday, the upper ridge will amplify and build
eastward into the Missouri and Central Mississippi Valley.
Meanwhile, a closed low over southern CA and rather deep upper
trough will extend across the northwestern U.S on Friday. The cold
front will stall and become nearly stationary near the Kansas border
Friday afternoon with a moist upslope flow across NE.
Storms in the evening may move into the west and possibly north of
the boundary in central Nebraska. Increasing chances and coverage
expected after midnight, mainly north central.

ON Saturday, the GFS breaks down the upper ridge as the upper trough
advances east. Thunderstorm chances increase Sat. into Sat.
evening across the area. As the main disturbance moves through
Saturday into Saturday night, POPS are as high as 40-50 percent
Saturday aftn and evening. deep layer shear will be quite strong at
50 to 60KT. Surface winds will be southeast at 20 to 30 mph, so
turning winds with height suggest strong to severe storms are
possible.

Sunday into Monday looks fairly dry with a southerly surface flow.
An upper trough persists across western U.S. and a large upper ridge
axis will extend across the Mississippi Valley. Highs will remain in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Although an amplified southwest flow
aloft will exist, storm chances appear limited, with just a slight
chance of storms across nctrl NE Sunday night and again Monday aftn.
Highs Sunday low to mid 90s and Monday 85 to 90.

Better chances for thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. The
upper trough across the Rockies will advance toward the Central and
Northern Plains and push a Pacific cold front into the area Monday
or Monday night. Highs are forecast to cool into the upper 60s to
mid 70s Tuesday and low to mid 70s Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms are again possible as the upper flow become more
zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Thunderstorms are the primary aviation weather hazard, mainly for
the rest of this evening and again starting Thursday late
afternoon. Some storms will be strong or severe, capable of 50+ kt
wind gusts and large hail, along with downpours reducing visby.
Overall, any reduced cig or visby should be brief, and mainly VFR
will continue. Winds will transition to west/northwest through
the forecast period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-042100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
347 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020 /247 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will continue through
late this afternoon and evening. Large hail, possibly 2 inches in
diameter or greater, and damaging winds are possible with these
storms. A tornado is possible for locations northeast of a line
from Merriman to Callaway.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail, possibly 2 inches in
diameter or greater, and damaging winds could occur. The greatest
threat will generally be along and northeast of a line from
Valentine to O'Neill.

Severe storms are possible early next week, most likely Monday
afternoon and evening. Later forecasts will better pinpoint this
potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of wind damage and hail will be appreciated tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
756 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

NEZ059-040145-
Lincoln NE-
756 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

At 755 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moorefield, or 10 miles north of Curtis, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brady, Hansen Memorial Reserve State Wildlife Management Area and
Jeffrey Canyon State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 193 and
207.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4071 10065 4106 10047 4104 10024 4071 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 255DEG 29KT 4077 10045

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
756 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

NEZ010-029-040145-
Wheeler NE-Holt NE-
756 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT AND EASTERN
WHEELER COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 756 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Bartlett, or 33 miles south of O'neill, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bartlett, Cumminsville and Four Corners.

This includes Highway 281 between mile markers 139 and 151.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
north central Nebraska. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 100 AM CDT for north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4175 9848 4198 9865 4210 9846 4202 9829
      4188 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 320DEG 22KT 4199 9849

Gomez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
802 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

NEZ071-040130-
Frontier NE-
802 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRONTIER COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

At 801 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 23 miles southeast
of Curtis, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Eustis, Moorefield, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir
State Recreation Area, Maywood, Orafino, Freedom and Dancing Leaf
Earth Lodge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Medicine Creek Reservoir, get out of the water and
move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out
to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4035 10054 4069 10064 4069 9999 4044 9999
      4043 10009 4035 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 282DEG 31KT 4040 10018

Roberg

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