Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
233 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

The HRRR and NAMdng model wind gust products both show high wind
criteria Tuesday. The NAM indicates winds of 65kts at h800mb, the
top of the mix layer as indicated in Bufkit. These strong winds are
emanating from strong Pacific high pressure building through the
Rockies in the wake of 995mb low pressure across KS. The wind
forecast uses the guidance blend and a High Wind Warning is in place
across swrn Nebraska beginning early Tuesday morning and ending
Tuesday evening.

The POP and temperature forecast uses the short term model blend.
High temperatures Tuesday came in with upper 50s to lower 60s. These
are near record low highs and North Platte could tie or break the
previous record of 58 set in 1895.

There is little change in the POP forecast tonight through Tuesday
except that the storm system is slower and producing a prolonged
period of warp-around rain Tuesday associated with an inverted
h700mb trof across Nebraska, deformation and mid level
frontogenesis. Postfrontal elevated thunderstorms are in the
forecast along the h700mb warm air advection zone.

Severe storm development late this afternoon and this evening
revolves around storms firing on a sfc front draped across ncntl
Nebraska this afternoon. MLCAPE of 2000-3000J/KG and 45-50kt winds
at h500mb will fuel the expected development of supercells. The RAP
model indicates moderate CAPE and shear with no cap by 22z. The RAP
also indicates a zone of very strong sfc warm air advection
developing across wrn KS this afternoon, aimed at ncntl Nebraska.
This warm air advection should continue throughout the evening hours
as a triple point forms near Goodland KS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Dry weather is in place Wednesday through Monday with just an
isolated thunderstorm chance Saturday night through Monday. The
anomalous storm system affecting Nebraska tonight and Tuesday will
phase with Tropical Depression Cristobal and be located across the
Great Lakes Wednesday. Pacific high pressure will build through
Nebraska Wednesday and Thursday. The Great Lakes storm will deepen
to around 983 mb and pull a batch of Canadian high pressure south
through the Midwest Friday and beyond. This will present little
opportunity for return moisture across Nebraska until Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

VFR conditions are expected across western and north central
nebraska this afternoon. Thunderstorms will begin to develop
this evening dropping ceilings into MVFR. Some storms may become
severe which could produce large hail and strong northerly winds
up to 45 kts. Heavy rainfall is also possible, which could cause
reductions in visibility at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

The short term model blend, the NAM, HRRR and RAP models continue
to advertise very heavy rainfall this evening associated with the
formation of a closed h700mb low across KS and a slow moving cold
front across Nebraska. Rain and elevated thunderstorms will
continue Tuesday as this upper low moves slowly east through KS.
The rain should end late Tuesday evening. These models all suggest
a heavy rain center will occur somewhere across ncntl Nebraska
tonight with 4 or more inches by Tuesday morning.

The Flood Watch for Custer county has been expanded north to include
most of north central Nebraska east of highway 83. WPC has been
suggesting high precipitable water, rainfall efficiency, training,
back-building and continued moisture flux for a few forecast cycles
across this area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ056>059-069>071.

Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
for NEZ006>010-026>028-038.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Boatwright
HYDROLOGY...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
336 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-092045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
336 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020 /236 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
portions of southwest and north central Nebraska this evening.
Storms are expected to produce large hail, damaging winds, and
heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado or two is also possible.

Repeating thunderstorms this evening could produce 1 to 2 inches
of rainfall over the same location which will lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

Heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue Tuesday with
localized flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
604 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

NEZ005-008-025-026-082345-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Thomas NE-Blaine NE-
604 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...
SOUTHWESTERN BROWN...NORTHWESTERN BLAINE AND EASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 604 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Halsey, or 13 miles east of Thedford, moving north at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Halsey, Elsmere, Purdum, Natwick and Koshopah.

This includes Highway 2 between mile markers 215 and 229.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4184 10027 4179 10051 4223 10047 4223 9998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 201DEG 28KT 4191 10032

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

NEZ038-059-090015-
Custer NE-Lincoln NE-
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 624 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Brady and south across much of eastern Lincoln county, or 18 miles
southeast of North Platte, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Brady, Maxwell, Keith, Jeffrey Canyon State Wildlife Management Area,
Cottonwood Canyon State Wildlife Management Area and Vroman.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 183 and 208.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 96 and 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central and southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4078 10068 4131 10064 4131 10022 4077 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 186DEG 22KT 4098 10048

JWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

NEZ008>010-026-027-090030-
Brown NE-Loup NE-Holt NE-Rock NE-Blaine NE-
637 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROCK...NORTHWESTERN LOUP...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...WEST CENTRAL HOLT AND BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 730
PM CDT...

At 637 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Atkinson to near Dunning. Movement was
north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Atkinson, Stuart, Dunning, Newport, Rose, Fox Bayou, Raven,
Almeria Meadow State Wildlife Management Area, Sybrant, Hawley Flats,
Twin Lakes State Wildlife Management Area, Duff, Pony Lake, Jones
Lake and Johnsons Corner.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 145 and 180.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 261 and 292.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 229 and 245.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4270 9878 4261 9947 4215 10002 4190 10024
      4175 10025 4175 9997 4223 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 200DEG 20KT 4249 9905 4177 10015

Snively

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
639 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             4 N ARNOLD              41.48N 100.19W
06/08/2020  E1.25 INCH       CUSTER             NE   STORM CHASER

&&

CBROWN