Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
655 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

The short range model consensus suggests a severe storm or two will
form off the Black Hills late this afternoon and track into ncntl
Nebraska this evening or later. A stationary front drifting
through nrn Nebraska this afternoon will pool moisture and be an
excellent focus for storm development. The location of the front
this evening could very well dictate the track of the severe
weather.

The NAMnest indicates the storms will move east-southeast at 45 mph
and the HRRR shows a storm motion of 50 mph. The very fast motion
will place the activity in nrn Nebraska between 10 pm and
midnight. Discrete storm development is possible sooner. Winds
aloft are strong with a belt of 50kt winds at 500mb but no low
level jet is shown in the models. This would likely prevent a turn
to the south and keep the storms on an east-southeast course as
shown by the models.

The thunderstorm forecast tonight follows the down-scaled NAM which
tracks a cluster of storms through ncntl Nebraska farther south than
the other models. This forecast is consistent with the latest SPC
storm outlook.

Other isolated strong storms have formed off the Laramie Range
this afternoon and will move into wrn Nebraska. None of these
storms are expected to be severe. Winds aloft are strong relative
to the instability which suggests storms will collapse posing a
strong wind gust hazard.

The thunderstorm forecast Friday and Friday night uses the short
term model blend plus the down-scaled NAM. Wrn and ncntl Nebraska
will be post-frontal Friday and the easterlies should lift moisture
onto the high plains of WY causing storm development off the Laramie
Range. A strong cap and stable air prevents this activity from
moving east into wrn and ncntl Nebraska. A strong low level jet and
warm front develops Friday night. Isolated shower and thunderstorm
chances are in place for this warm front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

A powerful storm system will affect wrn and ncntl Nebraska Saturday
through Monday. The models are taking sfc low pressure across wrn
Nebraska and deepening it down to between 984mb and 990mb Sunday
evening. The best chances for severe weather are Saturday across
western Nebraska and Monday across ncntl Nebraska. Sunday's
weather is an interlude to Monday's potential event. Chance POP's
are in place Saturday and Monday.

SPC has already outlooked much of wrn and ncntl Nebraska Saturday
for severe weather. Deep synoptic scale lift from an approaching
upper level trof, strong shear (near 50kts), and MLCAPE around
3000J/KG should easily support supercells across wrn Nebraska late
Saturday. Storm motion will likely be northeast as the upper level
flow is amplified north and south. A similar but less sheared
environment may develop Monday across ncntl Nebraska. The GFS is
giving a flood signal Monday with PWAT north of 1.50 inches and QPF
aligned mostly north and south.

This storm system will send a strong Pacific cold front through the
region Tuesday cooling temperatures and stabilizing the atmosphere
through Thursday. Just isolated thunderstorm chances are in place
during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of north
central and southwest Nebraska this evening and overnight.
Thunderstorms are expected to move out of the area by early
morning. Winds will switch from the north to the southeast
tomorrow afternoon with VFR conditions.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-052015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 /211 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A few severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail and damaging
winds are expected across northern Nebraska tonight. The area of
concern is generally along and north of a line from Merriman to
Brownlee to Burwell with the best chance along and north of a line
from Valentine to Ainsworth to O'Neill.

Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this evening across
western Nebraska. Lightning and wind gusts to 50 mph are the
hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A few severe storms are possible later Saturday as a warm front
lifts north through the area. Warm temperatures aloft may keep
storms from forming and later forecasts will refine the Saturday
potential.

A cold front will move slowly southeast across the area Monday. A
few severe thunderstorms could develop along the front Monday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of severe weather would be appreciated tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
646 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 ESE HERSHEY           41.10N 100.85W
06/04/2020  E70 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/4 MILE VISIBILITY AND 70 MPH WINDS

&&

JGOMEZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
650 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 NW BROWNLEE           42.37N 100.74W
06/04/2020  E60 MPH          CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

            4 TO 6 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN ALSO.

&&

CBROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S NORTH PLATTE        41.06N 100.77W
06/04/2020                   LINCOLN            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A SEMI ROLLOVER CAUSED BY
            WIND. SEMI WAS EMPTY AT TIME OF ROLLOVER.

&&

CBROWN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
704 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

NEZ025>027-050045-
Loup NE-Thomas NE-Blaine NE-
704 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUP...BLAINE AND
SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Halsey, or 18 miles west of Brewster, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Dunning, Halsey, Milburn Diversion Dam State Wildlife
Management Area, Almeria Meadow State Wildlife Management Area and
Almeria.

This includes Highway 2 between mile markers 223 and 244.

LAT...LON 4176 10038 4198 10036 4200 9952 4175 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 268DEG 33KT 4188 10022

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
715 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

NEZ025-035>038-057-059-050045-
Arthur-Custer-McPherson-Thomas-Lincoln-Keith-Logan-
715 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ARTHUR... EASTERN
KEITH...NORTHERN LINCOLN...LOGAN...MCPHERSON...WEST CENTRAL CUSTER
AND SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES...

At 714 PM CDT/614 PM MDT/, radar indicated rain showers were located
along extending from near Dunning to near Keystone. Movement was
southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Stapleton, Tryon, Sutherland, Hershey, Arnold, Paxton, Gandy, Sarben,
Ringgold, Sutherland Reservoir State Recreation Area, Logan, Highway
83 crossing The Dismal River, Coker, O'Fallons, Nevens, Shanklin
Bluff, Tarboz Lake, Big Bald Hill, Pleasant Hill and Bucktail Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 186 and 264.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 1 and 39.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 144 and 165.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 91 and 137.

LAT...LON 4147 9992 4102 10134 4144 10160 4187 10044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 323DEG 41KT 4168 10015 4128 10145

Snively