Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
609 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Southwesterly flow aloft prevails across Nebraska due to an upper
level ridge positioned off to the east over the Midwest. A
shortwave, currently located over the central Rockies, will move
northeastward late this afternoon and lead to convective initiation
over the Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible, but the risk may be tempered somewhat by
marginal deep layer shear on the order of 20-25kts. Ample
instability will be in place along with steep low level lapse rates,
so cannot rule out a few damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates
look rather marginal this evening (~6.5-7 C/km) so the hail threat
looks to remain isolated. The biggest threat looks to be locally
heavy rainfall. Ample moisture remains in place across much of
Nebraska, with persistent southerly flow. PWAT values should remain
a couple of standard deviations above normal, and lead to efficient
rainfall production in any convection. The low level jet will
increase this evening, though current thinking is that it will focus
east of the area. Localized flooding will be possible where any
convection trains.

This afternoon will be the warmest day for the remainder of the
forecast period. The heat advisory continues until 9pm this
evening generally for areas along and east of Highway 83. The
advisory looks still on track, with heat index values around 100
expected in the advisory area. There should be a lull in
precipitation overnight, with the exception of the far northeast
CWA, before the approach of a cool front. The front should push
through the area by Sunday mid-morning. The timing should temper
the severe threat a good bit though a strong storm can't be ruled
out along and south of I-80. Precip will linger behind the front
through Sunday afternoon and evening before pushing out overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Beyond this weekend, an upper level ridge will amplify over the
central CONUS and lead to a break in above average temperatures. In
fact, most locations look to have daily highs in the mid to upper
80s for the remainder of the forecast period. Flow aloft will
transition to more northwesterly with the building of the ridge, and
should help to shunt the deeper moisture southward. Daily
thunderstorm chances look to continue beyond Monday, though
confidence in both placement and severe weather is low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening. KLBF more likely
to be affected by any thunderstorms, mainly from 02Z to 06Z. Gusty
winds, and heavy rainfall with briefly low visibility will be the
primary concerns. Activity should diminish after 06Z with a clod
front advancing through the area overnight. Still a chance for
-TSRA Sunday, mainly across the south including KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-059-070-071.

&&

SHORT TERM...Brown/Jurgensen
LONG TERM...Brown/Jurgensen
AVIATION...Roberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
258 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-262000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
258 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 /158 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A heat advisory is in effect until 9 PM CDT for locations
generally east of highway 83 from Valentine to Maywood. In these
areas, heat indices will reach around 100 degrees.

Thunderstorms will be possible this evening. Strong storms are
possible across all of western and north central Nebraska. Hail
up the size of quarters and gusty winds will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Thunderstorms are possible again Sunday and Sunday night, as well
as Tuesday night through Friday. At this time, the threat for
severe storms is marginal on Sunday and Sunday night. Severe
threat is uncertain for later this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today and tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
803 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

NEZ026-027-038-260145-
Loup NE-Custer NE-Blaine NE-
803 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOUP...NORTHWESTERN CUSTER AND
EASTERN BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 803 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southwest of Rose to 7 miles north of
Arnold. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Arnold, Anselmo, Victoria Springs State Recreation Area,
Lillian, Milburn, Milburn Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management
Area, Fox Bayou, Almeria Meadow State Wildlife Management Area,
Walworth, Linscott, Pleasant Hill, Horseshoe Bend Lake, Almeria and
Gates.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 129 and 146.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 241 and 266.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 248 and 266.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 9925 4158 9953 4139 10023 4168 10023
      4207 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 245DEG 36KT 4206 9967 4153 10022

Roberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
812 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE ARTHUR            41.59N 101.62W
07/25/2020  M0.70 INCH       ARTHUR             NE   PUBLIC

            0.70 INCHES OF RAIN FOR STORM TOTAL PRECIP

&&

RLAMB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
819 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

NEZ059-260200-
Lincoln NE-
819 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Maloney State Recreation Area, or near North Platte, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
North Platte, Maxwell, Lake Maloney State Recreation Area, North
Platte Airport, Keith, Cottonwood Canyon State Wildlife Management
Area and Birdwood.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 97 between mile markers 1 and 7.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 166 and 194.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 71 and 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4095 10075 4101 10102 4125 10095 4131 10073
      4130 10054 4117 10043 4101 10045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 219DEG 32KT 4104 10079

Roberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
824 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S NORTH PLATTE        41.09N 100.77W
07/25/2020  E70 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND GUST. 4 TO 6 INCH TREE LIMB BROKEN.

&&

RLAMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
830 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     NORTH PLATTE            41.13N 100.77W
07/25/2020  M70 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   COCORAHS

            70 MPH WIND GUSTS. W SIDE OF NORTH PLATTE

&&

RLAMB

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