Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS North Platte, NE

697 
WWUS53 KLBF 102153
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
453 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NEC041-102215-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-200710T2215Z/
Custer NE-
453 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY...

At 452 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Weissert, or 13
miles east of Broken Bow, moving southeast at 30 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Ansley, Mason City, Comstock, Berwyn, Weissert, Westerville,and 
Wescott.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 85 and 112.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 284 and 307.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 300 and 308.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 9969 4164 9945 4156 9921 4109 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 316DEG 26KT 4141 9937 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

Jacobs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
418 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

The main forecast challenges over next few days include
thunderstorms (and severe potential) tonight and heat over the
weekend. A vigorous area of low pressure and associated fronts and
dryline, along with a mid-level shortwave, provide the focus for
convection through the night. As of 20z, several rounds of storms
traversed far northern Nebraska, resulting in wind damage and large
hail.

This evening and tonight... A rather complex scenario is unfolding
regarding thunderstorm potential. The lone supercell remaining (as
of 20z) is crossing from Blaine into Custer Counties. Visible
satellite indicates a cumulus field over much of southwest Neb, with
little change in height observed from the office. Cumulus does
appear to be growing more agitated along the dryline in the
panhandle, as well as stemming from the outflow boundary extending
west from the supercell. Short range guidance has been handling
today's event rather poorly with coverage and large discrepancies
still exist for possible initiation along the dryline. The 20z LBF
RAOB shows a midlevel capping inversion with MLCIN around -70 j/kg,
but MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg (and MUCAPE of 4000). Should convection
occur in the western Sandhills as suggested by some CAMS, the storms
should easily become severe per ample instability and more than
enough deep layer shear (50+ kts). Supercell will likely be the mode
of choice for any activity before sundown, with the most favorable
area from the panhandle into southwest Neb. The CAPE has a fat
profile, and telling from previous storms today, forming large hail
has not been an issue. These storms will also have a serious wind
threat, as shown by 1600+ DCAPE and a well mixed layer with 40+ kts
mid-level flow above that. However, further development is
conditional and confidence is somewhat low, depending on cap
strength. Best thinking is isolated storms at most that get carried
east rather quickly with steering current and then along the LLJ
nose if they still exist. More confidence exists with the second
wave of convection, or a potential MCS that rolls through north
central Nebraska after dark. The beginning of that setup is underway
north of the Black Hills, and most guidance suggests it crosses our
forecast area between 02-06z. At that time in north central Neb,
there should be enough instability to support continued severe
weather, although it's difficult to tell the effects from this
morning's activity. Dew points have held in the 60s up north with
the help of easterly surface flow. Shear definitely supports a QLCS
or some other organized form of convection with forecast values
pushing 60 kts. Also cannot rule out a tornado, either ahead of the
main line or with it. Low level shear is maximized in the far north,
but imagine LCL's lower through the evening and helicity to increase
near the cool front and ahead of the LLJ.

Saturday and Saturday night... Surface high pressure settles onto
the northern Plains while isentropic downglide and overall
subsidence resume over Nebraska. This sets up a blue sky day and a
light northerly breeze. Have tempered forecast highs a smidge,
mainly across the north. Very weak CAA is forecast at H85 with the
northerly flow, about 2 to 3C cooler than today. Forecast max temps
range from mid 80s north to lower 90s southwest. With light winds
and continued mostly clear skies, temps should fall to a seasonably
cool upper 50s at night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Sunday and beyond... The upper ridge stays parked over the southern
Plains while a low wiggles through the Prairie Provinces, placing
Nebraska in quasi-zonal flow. Temperatures over the next week will
be similar to last week with a couple days of hot weather (highs 90s
Sun, Mon, Thu) and some more moderate with highs in the 80s. After a
primarily dry weekend, precip chances reappear Monday as the next
surface low and associated fronts line up the High Plains. Scattered
storm chances exist nearly every day, but perhaps the best chance of
widespread activity (and possibly severe) comes Tuesday with the
cool front passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of the KVTN terminal
throughout the afternoon and evening as they move in from the
north. These storms can locally create MVFR conditions with low
ceilings and gusty conditions. Storms will begin to clear out of
the area in the early morning hours then remain clear. These
storms are not expected to reach the KLBF terminal, but cannot be
entirely ruled out. Gusty winds around KLBF may be possible
overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Meltzer/Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
422 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-112130-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
422 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 /322 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of southwest
and central Nebraska through the evening. Any storm will be
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and torrential
rainfall.

Additional storms are expected after sunset, primarily across
north central Nebraska. Damaging winds and very heavy rain are the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

Near daily thunderstorm chances exist Monday through Thursday,
with the best chance of widespread precipitation coming late
Tuesday. Stay tuned to later forecasts regarding severe potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather and
rainfall reports to the NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
227 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     TSTM WND GST     30 S VALENTINE          42.44N 100.55W
07/10/2020  E60 MPH          CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/3 MILE VISBY FROM DRIVING RAIN AND HIGH WINDS. PEA SIZE
            HAIL ALSO REPORTED

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
233 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E BROWNLEE            42.29N 100.55W
07/10/2020                   CHERRY             NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEMI BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 83, ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       30 S VALENTINE          42.44N 100.55W
07/10/2020  M1.10 INCH       CHERRY             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             2 NW PURDUM             42.09N 100.29W
07/10/2020  M1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             3 SE DUNNING            41.80N 100.06W
07/10/2020  M1.75 INCH       BLAINE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL HAIL AND AT LEAST 60 MPH WIND.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
418 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E GATES               41.65N 99.59W
07/10/2020  E70 MPH          CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 70 MPH.

&&

SJACOBS