Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
646 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

The main concern in the short term is with thunderstorm development
late afternoon into evening.  A surface trof will move into the area
late afternoon and evening with thunderstorms expected to develop
across the Panhandle and northeast Colorado and move into the
western and southwest Nebraska. Severe storms will be possible with
the main hazards being large hail and strong winds. The area of
greatest threat for severe thunderstorms looks to be across
southwest Nebraska. CAPE values will be 3500 to around 5000 J/kg
across much of the forecast area. 0-6KM shear is good with values
around 25 to 30 across southwest Nebraska and a little less across
the Sandhills with values around 20 to 25 kts. Thunderstorm activity
is expected to diminish after midnight.

Overnight temperatures in western Nebraska will be in the low 60s
and will range into the upper 60s in northeast Nebraska. Trended
temperaturesto cooler guidance as they are expected to be lower
than previously anticipated due to a lack of widespread
cloudiness. There is decent low level moisture tonight with dew
points reaching the upper 60s in north central Nebraska.

For Friday, slight thunderstorm chances will be possible Friday
afternoon into Friday evening, at this time it does not look like
severe thunderstorms will be possible. High temperatures for
Friday are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

The upper level ridge pattern will remain in place over the weekend
and early next week bringing southwesterly upper level flow. Dew
points will generally remain in the 60s over the weekend but drop to
the 50s early next week. Thunderstorm activity will remain a
possibility each day during the afternoon with the greatest chances
on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures in the 90s are expected through
the weekend and early next week. The highest temperatures could
reach 100 degrees in southwest Nebraska on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

VFR conditions largely expected through the forecast period.
Multiple areas of convection across western Nebraska are expected
to remain away from the TAF sites as they continue to weaken over
the next few hours. May see some weak convection approach LBF
early in the period but impacts are likely to be nothing more than
a wind shift to the southwest for a brief period. Overnight, CIGs
may approach MVFR for portions of central Nebraska including
BBW/ONL/ANW and possibly LBF. Ceilings should lift to above 10k
feet AGL after sunrise on Friday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez/Meltzer
LONG TERM...Gomez/Meltzer
AVIATION...Jurgensen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-032015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
312 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020 /212 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across western Nebraska late this
afternoon into evening. A few storms will be capable of large
hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rainfall.
The greatest risk of a strong or severe storm is generally across
southwest Nebraska this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Additional thunderstorm chances exist Friday afternoon and
evening across much of western and central Nebraska. The threat
of severe weather is low.

A marginal risk of severe storms is possible on Saturday across
the outlook area. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary
threat.

Thunderstorm chances remain through the weekend and into early
next week. At this time, the threat for organized severe weather
is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
732 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

NEZ005-024-025-094-030130-
Hooker NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-Thomas NE-
732 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHERRY...EASTERN
HOOKER AND NORTHWESTERN THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT/730 PM
MDT/...

At 732 PM CDT/632 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 20 miles west of Brownlee
to 9 miles south of Mullen. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mullen, Seneca, Highway 97 crossing the North Loup River, Marsh Flat,
Highway 97 crossing the Dismal River, Giant Hill, Highway 97 crossing
Big Creek and Kelso.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 177 and 199.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 53 and 108.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4256 10085 4193 10075 4180 10119 4246 10121
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 213DEG 19KT 4234 10102 4191 10110

Kulik

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
755 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

NEZ071-030145-
Frontier NE-
755 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRONTIER COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM
CDT...

At 754 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 17 miles southeast
of Curtis, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Eustis, Stockville, Medicine Creek Reservoir State Recreation
Area, Orafino, Freedom and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 42 and 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4063 10064 4069 9998 4044 9998 4043 10009
      4035 10010 4035 10060
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 268DEG 29KT 4045 10028

Kulik

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
758 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 SSE STOCKVILLE       40.36N 100.30W
07/02/2020  E50 MPH          FRONTIER           NE   PUBLIC

            GUSTS RANGED FROM 40 TO 50. NO HAIL.

&&

JURGENSEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
704 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

NEZ094-030145-
Western Cherry NE-
704 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM MDT...

At 704 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Medicine Lake, or 29 miles south of Martin, moving east
at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Medicine Lake, Highway 61 Crossing The Niobrara River, Intersection
of Highway 61 and Shadbolt Road and Eli.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 146 and 151.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 205 and 218.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4260 10169 4276 10180 4298 10142 4276 10129
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 248DEG 20KT 4275 10160

Roberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
806 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

NEZ005-094-030145-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
806 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CDT/745 PM MDT/...

At 806 PM CDT/706 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Nenzel, or 28 miles west of Valentine, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kilgore and Nenzel.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 162 and 176.

LAT...LON 4288 10090 4275 10112 4287 10129 4300 10112
      4300 10097
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 225DEG 13KT 4286 10112

Roberg