Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
623 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

Strong to severe storms are expected mid afternoon through this
evening as a disturbance aloft and surface cold front pushes across
the region.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the northwest sandhills
and northeast CO by mid afternoon and slowly push south and east
across the forecast area this evening. SBCAPES to 4000 J/kg with
steep lapse rates above 8C/km and 0-6km bulk shear from 20 to 35KT
will support strong to severe storms. The latest HREF and NAMnest,
both indicate a line of storm in northeast Co expanding northward
across the central Sandhills and southwest this evening as
another line of storms develops from sctrl SD and the northwest
Sandhills and spreads southeast across north central Nebraska this
evening. The greatest threats will be large hail and damaging
winds. Low level helicity values 100 to 200 m^2/s^2 north of I80,
an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Storms will begin as
discrete with a few supercells possible. within a few hours,
storms will likely for into a line and become more linear, with
damaging winds and large hail possible The best chance for severe
storms will be between 4pm CDT and 10pm CDT. Storms will also have
the potential for heavy rainfall, with localized flooding
possible. Latest WPC has a marginal risk for flooding mainly near
and north of the Niobrara and Elkhorn river basins.

Most of the showers and thunderstorms should exit the eastern
zones around midnight, as a second area develops across the
panhandle and northwest Sandhills after midnight, which should
gradually diminish.

On Friday, most mesoscale models keep western Nebraska dry on Friday
with fairly subsident conditions behind the cold front. Winds
will be northerly at 10 to 15 mph, becoming northeast in the
afternoon. The best upslope flow will be near the Co Front Range
and eastern plains of CO. Most mesoscale models including the NAM
and GFS indicate late afternoon development to our west and
southwest. The best chances will be near and south of I80 Friday
evening and overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

An upper trough from WY back west of the Four Corners Saturday
morning will advance east and should trigger scattered thunderstorms
across northeast CO and the Nebraska panhandle late afternoon.
Moisture and instability will increase as southerly winds persist.
The GFS, NAM and NAMnest all indicate convection late afternoon far
western counties to spread east during the evening/overnight. 0-6km
bulk shear 25 to 30KT and MUCAPES to 3000 J/KG mainly south of
Highway 2 suggest a few strong storms may occur across central
and southern areas Saturday evening.

For Sunday through Tuesday, a rather deep upper trough in the
Pacific NW will deepen across the Great Basin. Western Nebraska a
will remain in an amplified southwest flow aloft during this time.
This will result in main dry and warm conditions. Any thunderstorms
that do develop should be isolated and mainly occur during the
evening hours. Highs Sunday and Monday to range in the mid to upper
90s. With fairly deep surface low pressure near the Front Range, a
breezy south wind expected Sunday and Monday.

A more organized chance for thunderstorms arrives Tuesday night. The
upper trough will lift northeast over the Rockies and High Plains
with upper height falls occurring across the adjacent Central Plains
This upper trough will lift north Wednesday and Thursday with upper
height rises expected by Thursday across the Central U.S. Continued
chances for thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures remain warm Tuesday through next Thursday mainly in
the 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

Scattered thunderstorms will cross the area through this evening,
with some strong/severe storms and local IFR conditions. Another
disturbance may bring some high based storms to western portions of
the area after midnight tonight, with storms spreading eastward
through mid morning Friday. Mainly VFR conditions with these storms,
although brief MVFR vsby possible in stronger storms.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-262030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020 /218 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms are expected across the Sandhills into southwest and
north central Nebraska. The greatest threat for severe
thunderstorms will generally be between the South Dakota border
and Interstate 80. Main threats include large hail, damaging winds
and locally heavy rainfall, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out. There is also a risk for significantly large hail across
portions of northern Nebraska. Generally across Cherry County into
northwest Brown and western Keya Paha counties. Thunderstorms are
expected to continue to move southeast through the evening hours.
By late evening the main hazard will become a heavy rain threat,
localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue through
the weekend into next week. There is a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms across far southwest Nebraska for Friday with a
marginal risk mainly along and south of interstate 80. Severe
weather threat for the weekend remains uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
754 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

NEZ025-026-037-260145-
Thomas NE-Blaine NE-Logan NE-
754 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LOGAN...SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE AND
SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES...

At 754 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Halsey to 8 miles north of
Ringgold. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dunning, Halsey, Highway 83 crossing The Dismal River and Brown Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central, north central and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4191 9995 4174 10022 4174 10025 4172 10025
      4164 10038 4161 10071 4174 10071 4174 10074
      4191 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 257DEG 21KT 4184 10036 4164 10074

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
702 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2020

NEZ094-260130-
Western Cherry NE-
702 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY...

At 701 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Medicine Lake, or 24 miles southeast of Martin, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Cherry County, southeast of Merriman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek safe shelter inside a building or vehicle until this storm has
passed.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4279 10149 4283 10161 4294 10155 4288 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 212DEG 8KT 4286 10149

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
725 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2020

NEZ094-260200-
Western Cherry NE-
725 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY...

At 725 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Cody, or 23 miles southeast of Martin, moving east
at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cody, Nenzel, Cody Lake and Eli.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek safe shelter inside a building or vehicle until this storm has
passed.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4291 10106 4289 10143 4299 10147 4300 10111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 250DEG 20KT 4298 10136

JC

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