Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

The forecast challenge is pops as the upper low over south central
Canada is slow to move east through Monday. At 2 PM CT the surface
analysis showed a trough extending southwest from over the northwest
sandhills to the Sidney. A lone thunderstorm developed west of
Chappell and dissipated while moving east. Models in good agreement
isolated thunderstorms to redevelop in the west and move eastward
through 9 pm with the surface trough east to a line from near
Valentine south to Mullen and Stapleton at 7 pm.  Moisture pooling
in advance of the surface trough resulting in MUCAPE values over
3000 J/Kg and 0-1km CAPE values from 1200-1750 J/kg generally east
of Highway 83 to fuel storm development late this afternoon and
evening. While cloudy at the start of the day, clouds cleared with
steep lapse rates across the area. Short-term models create a spread
where forecast trends toward a line of thunderstorms forming

Storms that develop will begin to exit the area by 10 pm with the
threat for severe storms ending for tonight. Tonight low
temperatures will drop into the 50s throughout with a few locales in
eastern Boyd, Holt and Wheeler counties in the lower 60s by
daybreak.

Sunday into Sunday night an elongated area of low pressure will
extend from the northern into the central plains. The chance for
thunderstorms increase with the heating of the day and shortwaves
embedded into the upper low. There is a marginal risk for severe
storms Sunday evening. High temperatures Sunday will reach into the
80s north to lower 90s in the far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Little change in the weather pattern Monday and Tuesday as the upper
lows influence lingers for isolated to scattered thunderstorms and
cooler temperatures. By midweek the upper ridge strengthens
across the intermountain region to the west and builds eastward
for a break in the convection. Then Thursday and Friday the threat
for storm development returns. A frontal system will move east
and south across the central Plains with convection daily.
Temperatures trend upwards through the week from the upper 70s at
the start to the middle 80s by weeks end.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across
portions north central Nebraska through the evening. For the most
part, thunderstorms are expected to remain east of both terminals.
However, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.
Will keep thunderstorm mention out of the prevailing forecast for
now as confidence in impacting either terminal remains low.
Otherwise, a dry forecast is in store for the region. Some gusty
winds are also possible Sunday afternoon at KLBF with gusts up to 20
knots expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

High flow will linger on the North Platte River at North Platte as
releases from Kingsley Dam continue. The river gauge will
fluctuate near 5.7 feet through Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Keck
LONG TERM...Keck
AVIATION...Kulik
HYDROLOGY...Keck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-212000-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
250 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020 /150 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and near
Highway 61 from Merriman to Ogallala where a few severe storms are
possible. Storm development is most likely between 2 pm and 10 pm
and the area of concern for severe weather is generally along and
east of a line from Merriman to North Platte, Ansley and
Bartlett. The severe weather hazards are large hail greater than 1
inch and wind damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday, mainly affecting
north central Nebraska. An isolated strong or severe storm is
possible Sunday along and east of a line from Broken Bow to
Bassett. Large hail and wind damage are the severe weather
hazards. The risk of severe weather Monday appears low at this
time.

Scattered thunderstorms are also possible Thursday and Friday.
The risk of severe weather is uncertain at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             11 W TAYLOR             41.76N 99.60W
06/20/2020  M1.00 INCH       LOUP               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RKULIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
648 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             7 W CALLAWAY            41.29N 100.05W
06/20/2020  M1.75 INCH       CUSTER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TKECK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
723 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

NEZ026>028-038-210115-
Loup NE-Custer NE-Garfield NE-Blaine NE-
723 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LOUP...SOUTHWESTERN
GARFIELD...NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

At 723 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Victoria Springs State Recreation Area, or 14 miles
south of Brewster, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Sargent, Milburn, Milburn Diversion Dam State Wildlife
Management Area, Walworth, Big Oak Canyon, Divide Hill, Gates and
Kent Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 112 and 128.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central and north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4165 9987 4183 9986 4183 9921 4174 9920
      4174 9921 4157 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 272DEG 14KT 4174 9977

Jacobs

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
729 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             NNE BREWSTER            41.94N 99.86W
06/20/2020  E1.25 INCH       BLAINE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMELTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
743 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             5 WNW ARNOLD            41.45N 100.28W
06/20/2020  M1.25 INCH       LOGAN              NE   PUBLIC

            CORN WAS PARTIALLY STRIPPED.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
748 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             5 N OCONTO              41.22N 99.76W
06/20/2020  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

SMELTZER