Red Flag Warning 23, NWS North Platte, NE

694 
WWUS83 KLBF 182320
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
520 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

NEZ204-206-208-190030-
/O.CAN.KLBF.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-201119T0000Z/
Eastern Panhandle/Crescent Lake NWR-
Sandhills/Valentine NWR/Nebraska National Forest-
Niobrara Valley/Fort Niobrara NWR/Samuel R McKelvie National
Forest-
520 PM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 /420 PM MST Wed Nov 18 2020/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...

The National Weather Service in North Platte has cancelled the
Red Flag Warning.

Relative humidity values have risen and winds remain light.
Therefore the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. 

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1135 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a broad ridge
of high pressure extending from the southern plains into northern
Saskatchewan. East of this ridge, a trough of low pressure extended
from eastern Quebec south into New England. West of the ridge,
closed low pressure was across the Alaska Panhandle. A trough of low
pressure extended south of this feature to approximately 600 miles
off the coast of Oregon. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
extended from northeastern Wyoming into the western Nebraska
Panhandle and eastern Colorado. Other than some high cloudiness,
skies were mostly clear overnight and 2 AM CT temperatures ranged
from the lower 30s in SW Nebraska to the middle 40s in the Sandhills
and north central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Record to near record highs today and fire weather concerns are
the main forecast challenges. The surface trough of low pressure,
currently over the western panhandle, will migrate east today into
the western Sandhills by this afternoon. H85 temps this afternoon
will surge into the upper teens to lower 20s across the forecast
area. For highs today, utilized a blend of the warmer MAV and
slightly cooler MET guidance. Would have trended temps more toward
the warmer MAV guidance, however, am concerned about high
cloudiness this afternoon, especially over northern Nebraska and
its impact on highs. Even with the threat for high clouds today,
feel confident in highs in the upper 70s to around 80 along and
west of highway 83. This will result in record highs today for
Valentine, North Platte, Imperial and Broken Bow. The current
records for these four sites are 77, 78, 79 and 74 respectively.
With the very warm temperatures this afternoon, relative humidity will
reach 15 to 25 percent across all of western and north central
Nebraska. We will get close to reaching critical red flag
humidities across a large portion of the area this afternoon,
minus the eastern Sandhills. Winds however are expected to not
meet the critical threshold of 25 MPH for the bulk of the area.
Winds will be close to critical values in the northwestern and
portions of the north central forecast area this afternoon,
however peak winds are expected around noon time which is earlier
than peak heating. That being said, will forgo any red flag
headlines for today. Also, possible cloud cover will limit
confidence in hitting red flag warning criteria. A cold front
will enter the northwestern forecast area late evening, tracking
through the forecast area overnight. There will be some light
winds with the passage of the front which will help to elevate
temps somewhat overnight. This will lead to lows in the mid 30s to
mid 40s. On Thursday, behind the front, highs will be 10 to 15
degrees cooler than this afternoon's highs with readings in the
mid 60s to around 70. This is still 15 to 20 degrees above normal
for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

A second, stronger front will push through the area Thursday
night, resulting in much cooler highs for Friday. Clouds will
begin to increase late in the day Friday with the approach of a
mid level disturbance. Mid level frontogenesis will continue to
increase into Saturday leading to abundant cloudiness across
western and north central Nebraska. As for the threat of
precipitation this weekend: The latest model solutions from
earlier this evening, have trended south with the bulk of
precipitation for Saturday. The GFS, ECMWF and NAM12 solns are in
decent agreement with this trend, lending better forecast
confidence compared to last night. As a result, pops were trended
lower with this forecast package. After Saturday night, a dry
pattern will commence with low amplitude mid level flow expected
through Tuesday. Highs will rebound back to the upper 40s for
Monday with lower to mid 50s expected for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. An upper level system across the Pacific Northwest brings
high level cloudiness, but dryness to the surface. Gusts out of
the west may pick up in the Sandhills during the afternoon, but
should only last for a few hours. In southwest Nebraska, winds
winds will shift to the south in the afternoon, then return to the
west in the evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Meltzer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1051 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-191700-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1051 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 /951 AM MST Wed Nov 18 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Well above normal temperatures today with highs reaching the 70s,
with near record temperatures possible. The combination of very
warm temperatures, breezy winds, and low minimum relative
humidity will result in near critical fire weather conditions
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible Thursday
afternoon with low minimum relative humidity, breezy winds, and
above normal temperatures.

Moisture is expected to increase overnight Friday through
Saturday night and into Sunday as a strong cold front crosses the
forecast area. Wintry precipitation, in the form of mix or snow,
is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte