Red Flag Warning 16, NWS North Platte, NE

590 
WWUS83 KLBF 292009
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
309 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN 
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

.Abnormally warm temperatures leading to critical relative
humidity values combined with breezy northwest winds will allow
for the erratic behavior of any fire starts across much of
southwest Nebraska.

NEZ210-219-300000-
/O.CON.KLBF.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-200930T0000Z/
Frenchman Basin-Loess Plains-
309 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 /209 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FAR SW
NEBRASKA...

* Affected Area...In NEZ210...Fire Weather Zone 210 Frenchman 
  Basin. In NEZ219...Fire Weather Zone 219 Loess Plains.

* Winds...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Timing...until 7 PM CDT (6 PM MDT).

* Relative Humidity...As low as 16 percent.

* Temperatures...Around 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

982 
WWUS83 KLBF 292356
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
656 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020


NEZ210-219-300100-
/O.EXP.KLBF.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-200930T0000Z/
Frenchman Basin-Loess Plains-
656 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020 /556 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY FOR NEBRASKA FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 210 AND 219...

Blustery northwest winds have weakened while humidity values have
increased across southwest Nebraska, allowing the Red Flag 
Warning to expire. Another round of gusty winds and low humidity 
will create elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday.

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
333 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

A highly amplified H5 pattern was present over the CONUS
and southern Canada this evening. Closed low pressure was present
over Lake Superior. A broad trough of low pressure extended south of
the low to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Within this trough, strong
shortwaves were noted: One over sern Minnesota and a second along
the Texas/Oklahoma border. West of the trough, high pressure was
anchored over southwest Oregon with a ridge extending north into
southern British Columbia. East of the trough, high pressure was
present off the east coast of the CONUS. At the surface, high
pressure was anchored from the central Rockies, northwest into
Idaho. Skies were mostly clear and temperatures as of 2 AM CT ranged
from 34 to 40 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

A weak warm front will push through western and central Nebraska
today. H85 temps will reach around 20C this afternoon in SW
Nebraska. This will lead to highs in the upper 70s to around 80.
Late this afternoon mid level cloudiness will begin to increase
over northeastern Nebraska INVOF of a frontal boundary. Highs will
be cooler in the northeast in the vicinity of the boundary. In
these areas, highs will reach the middle 70s. Winds this afternoon
could be on the breezy side, especially over the northern half of
the forecast area. Bufkit soundings indicate decent mixing
potential this afternoon with the potential for wind gusts
approaching 25 to 30 MPH in northern Nebraska. Gust potential
appears lighter in SW Nebraska given the weak warm air advection
regime this afternoon. Gust potential in these areas appears to be
on the order of 20 to 25 MPH. With respect to critical fire
weather conditions today. Forecast relative minimum relative
humidity, bottoms out around 16 to 21 percent in far SW Nebraska
(fire zones 210 and 219). Wind gusts during the afternoon reach 20
to 25 MPH during peak heating. Given the dry fuels and gust
potential approaching 25 MPH, will hoist a RFW for zones 210 and
219 for this afternoon. By tonight, a cold front will approach
northern Nebraska by daybreak Wednesday. South of the front, winds
will be light from the west and lows will be in the 40s. The
before mentioned front, will push south Wednesday morning, passing
through the forecast area by midday. Highs Wednesday will range
from the lower 60s in the north to the lower 70s mainly south of
Interstate 80. A reinforcing shot of colder air will settle into
the area Wednesday night. With the expected cold air advection,
winds will not totally decouple, preventing widespread sub
freezing temps Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

The frontal boundary will stall across the Nebraska Panhandle
Thursday. H85 temps will range from around 4C in the east to
around 14C in the west. This will lead to highs in the middle 50s
in the northeast, to the middle 60s in the southwest. Clear skies
and light winds are expected Thursday night with guidance lows in
the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. If this verifies, it would be
the first night this fall with widespread sub freezing temps
across the forecast area. If forecast lows continue to trend in
this direction, we may need to issue a freeze warning with
subsequent forecasts. Beyond Thursday, ridging will continue
across the western CONUS. Temps will remain on the cool side with
the ridge off to the west. By Monday, the ridge will begin to
transition east with highs reaching back into the lower 80s in the
west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for
western and north central Nebraska with only some mid/high level
clouds passing by. Light northwest winds overnight will become
gusty again by afternoon with speeds near 25 kts. Wind appears to
be an aviation weather concern for Wednesday as well.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ022-
023-035>038-056>059-069>071.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ210-219.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1107 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-300415-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1107 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020 /1007 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A Frost Advisory is in effect for areas generally along and south
of Highway 2. Overnight lows in these areas will range in the low
to mid 30s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A Frost Advisory will be in effect until 9am CDT Tuesday morning.
Morning low temperatures will range from the low to mid 30s
across the affected area.

Elevated fire weather conditions will redevelop Tuesday afternoon
for areas generally along and west of a Valentine to Arnold line.
The combination of low humidity and northwest winds gusting up to
30 mph will lead to erratic behavior for any fire starts.

Additional frost and freeze concerns exist for Thursday, Friday,
and Sunday mornings. Stay tuned to later forecasts for more
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte