Red Flag Warning 12, NWS North Platte, NE

195 
WWUS83 KLBF 310132
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service North Platte NE
832 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020


NEZ204-210-310245-
/O.CAN.KLBF.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-200831T0200Z/
Eastern Panhandle/Crescent Lake NWR-Frenchman Basin-
732 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 204 AND 210...

The National Weather Service in North Platte has cancelled the
Red Flag Warning.

Winds have decreased with humidity climbing above critical levels
at all locations.

$$

http://weather.gov/LBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

The NAM model and radar suggest an area of synoptic scale lift is
operating across wrn SD and nwrn Neb this morning. Timing tools
indicate this lift should become juxtaposed with an approaching
cold front across ncntl Nebraska this afternoon setting the stage
for isolated to perhaps scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
The forecast uses the short term model blend for location but
limits thunderstorm chances to 30-40 percent. This lines up well
with the GFS, ECM, HRRR and RAP models which show very limited
storm coverage.

The temperature forecast today uses the guidance blend plus the RAP
and HRRR models which show highs in the upper 90s across swrn
Nebraska. The short term model blend suggested highs in the lower
90s and the blend of the two data sets produces highs in the mid 90s.

The guidance blend was the basis for lows in the 40s and 50s tonight
and suggested highs in the 70s to near 80 Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

An upper level disturbance near scntl Alaska should drop southeast
through the cntl Rockies Monday night. Although the forcing will
be strong, there is a good chance the best moisture will be south
of Nebraska and the latest rain forecast continues to trend south.
In fact, the models are lighting up convection along a stalled
cold front across Texas and Oklahoma Monday night. The rain
chances in place across swrn Nebraska, 40 to 60 percent, may be
too high and later forecast POPs could well decrease.

There is little change in the forecast philosophy Tuesday through
Saturday. Persistent strong northwest flow at h500mb develops in
the wake of the disturbance Monday night and a reinforcing Pacific
cold front should move through Thursday. A modest warming trend
follows Friday and Saturday. The forecast is dry and none of the
models show return moisture developing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

VFR conditions expected to prevail at both terminals through the
TAF period. Main concern will be gusty backing winds Sunday
afternoon and evening at both LBF & VTN with the approach and
passage of a cold front. Have left out any TS mention Sunday
afternoon as well at LBF for now with most guidance suggesting the
bulk of the activity will stay off to the east. Future inclusion
appears possible if confidence in convective placement closer to
the terminal can grow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

All models are dropping humidity below 15 percent across parts of
western Nebraska this afternoon. A slug of prefrontal dry air across
Wyoming this morning will move east into western Nebraska this
afternoon. Dew points should drop into the 30s. At the same time,
winds 800-700mb increase to around 25 kts and this should support
deep mixing and wind gusts to 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NEZ204-210.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Brown
FIRE WEATHER...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
315 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-302015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
315 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020 /215 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible in the panhandle
and far southwest Nebraska this evening and may contain hail and
gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and
early evening as a cold front pushes through the area. A few of
these storms may be severe, mainly east of a line from Bassett to
Broken Bow. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

Dry air and gusty winds behind the cold front could create fire
weather concerns west of Highway 61 Sunday afternoon and early
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Taylor