Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
127 PM AST Mon Feb 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Short wave trough will cross the west Atlantic and move
just north of the region today through early Tuesday, to slightly
erode the ridge now in place across the area. Thereafter the upper
ridge is to become reinforced and strengthen its hold across the
region through at least the upcoming weekend. A frontal boundary
will stall and gradually weaken just north of the region today
through Tuesday while a weakly induced surface trough crosses the
region today. This overall pattern will promote light easterly winds
early in the day but will become more northeasterly later this
afternoon through Tuesday as a surface high pressure ridge builds
across the west Atlantic and north of the region. Consequently,
breezy to windy conditions are forecast by the latter part of the
work week as the local pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY THROUGH Wednesday...
A weakening cold front/frontal boundary located just north of the
Dominican Republic and west of the forecast area, will continue to
stall just northwest of the region through Tuesday. This feature has
induced a weak surface trough, which will continue to erode while
moving across the forecast area today. In the upper-levels, a mid to
upper-level shortwave trough will continue to cross the region.
Although this overall weather pattern is fairly dry, these features
may help induce afternoon shower activity, mainly across interior
and along the southern and southwest slopes of Puerto Rico. However,
no significant or widespread shower activity is expected, due to
very dry air aloft and limited to no low level moisture advection
across the area.  Even though showers will be possible in some
areas, the rainfall will be of short duration with mostly fair
weather and sunny skies expected to prevail.

As the mid to upper-level shortwave trough pulls away, a mid to
upper-level ridge will reestablish over the area by Tuesday. This
feature along with below normal moisture, will produce mainly fair
weather conditions across the area with very limited shower activity
expected, mainly across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon
hours.

On Wednesday, a broad surface high pressure will build and spread
over the western and central Atlantic basin. This feature will help
transport patches of low-level moisture, associated with the
remnants of the aforementioned frontal boundary, over the area from
time to time. Therefore, an periods of fast moving shower activity
can be expected over the area. Isolated to scattered showers can be
expected in and around the USVI and eastern Puerto Rico during the
morning hours followed by the development of additional showers
mainly across western Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours as a
result of diurnal heating and local effects.

.LONG TERM...(From previous discussion)Thursday through Monday...
The aforementioned mid- to upper-level ridge will remain in place
through most of the long term period. A TUTT-low forecasted to
amplify over the Central Atlantic will squeeze the ridge pattern
during the weekend. However, it is not until Monday, when the ridge
is forecast to erode. That said, deep convection is not expected to
affect the region through the period. On the other hand, a surface
high pressure moving across the central Atlantic will bring
occasional patches of moisture with clouds and showers across the
region each day. In the meantime, this high-pressure will tighten
the local pressure gradient increasing winds across the northeast
Caribbean. This will maintain breezy conditions at least through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds are expected through the forecast
period. However, showers are expected to develop across the interior
and SW Puerto Rico, resulting in VCSH at JMZ/JPS through about 03/22z.
Calm to light and variable surface winds will continue overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Data from the surrounding buoys and recent guidance continued
to suggest seas between 1 to 4 feet near shore and 3 to 6 feet offshore
and over the local passages overnight. Light to gentle winds between 5
to 10 knots will prevail with occasional higher gusts over the Atlantic
waters. Gradually increasing winds and seas through Tuesday and for the
rest of the work week due to the arrival of a small northerly swell and
moderate to strong trade winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  75  85 /  20  20  40  40
STT  74  84  75  84 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for beaches of North Central-Northeast-San Juan and Vicinity.

     High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM AST this evening through late
     Tuesday night for the Northwest beaches.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...OM
LONG TERM....RAM
PUBLIC DESK...RVT

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