High Surf Advisory 1, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
327 AM AST Sat Jan 11 2020

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night...
Expect current broad high pressure system north of the region to
continue its dominance over the local weather conditions through
the rest of the weekend. As a result, the southern periphery of
the high will keep Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin
Islands under a steady trade wind regime, with tight pressure
gradients bringing periods of gusty winds, possibly into gale
intensity at times.

Latest model solutions suggest the presence of a 35-40kt low
level jet across the region, which will combine with the robust
easterly trades to generate passing showers, and although most
should remain shallow and rather quick, some of the larger showers
could produce strong wind gusts.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Latest global models keep broad sfc ridging in place across the
west Atlantic, with generally breezy conditions prevailing through
the middle of the work week. Expect periods of wind gusts,
possibly reaching 25 to 30 mph at times, along with continuing
moisture advection and passing showers through the middle of the
work week. The upside of this synoptic scenario is that most
showers should move fast enough for rain accumulations to remain
low. Although, a couple of localized heavy downpours can not be
ruled out.

Long range guidance show an approaching mid level trough, which
erodes as displaces the aforementioned ridge during the first half
of the work week. It also pulls a weakening cold front boundary
closer to Puerto Rico in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. But
the influence of this trough is short-lived as the mid-level ridge
is expected to re-establish across the region by Wednesday
afternoon. But VIL and PWAT model values suggests that enough
added moisture from the trough should be available for a modest
increase in showers, with late Monday into Wednesday being the
most active.

By Thursday, moisture decreases as drier air filters into the
region. But enough leftover moistUre will linger over Puerto Rico
and the US Virgin islands for at least scattered showers to keep
developing each afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE... Strong and gusty trades continue through early next
week, with Small Craft Advisories in effect. Marine conditions
will continue to deteriorate during the next few days with seas
increasing up to 14 feet by Saturday. Also, elevated risk of rip
currents can also be expected for most beaches in Puerto Rico,
Vieques, Culebra, Saint Thomas, Saint John, and Saint Croix
through the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR should prevail at all terminals with periods of
gusty trades in the 30kt range. Fast- moving easterly showers may
bring brief bouts of sub-VFR conditions over the terminals at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  74  83  75 /  50  50  50  50
STT  85  78  84  78 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Central
     Interior-Culebra-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North Central-
     Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AST this evening for Southwest.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Coastal
     Waters OF Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters
     of Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST Monday for Anegada Passage
     Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI
     from 10 NM to 19.5N-Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10
     NM to 17N-Coastal Waters OF Northwestern Puerto Rico out 10
     NM-Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal
     Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal
     Waters of Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-
     Mona Passage Southward to 17N.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AST this evening for Coastal
     Waters OF Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

&&

AR/MFL

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