Alert archive / Puerto Rico / Flash Flood Watches in 2020

Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS JSJ

October 14, 2020

NWS JSJ issued this flash flood watch at Oct 14, 2020, 11:52 AM CDT. It took effect at Oct 15, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 54 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 14, 2020, 11:52 AM CDT (16:52 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 15, 2020, 1:00 PM CDT
Expired
Oct 17, 2020, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
54 hr
Issued by
NWS JSJ
Flood severity
None

The text

As transmitted.

912 
WGCA62 TJSJ 141652
FFASJU

Flood Watch
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1252 PM AST Wed Oct 14 2020

.Unstable weather conditions along with abundant tropical moisture 
will cause periods of heavy rainfall Thursday afternoon into Friday 
evening.

.Saturated soils and a wetter weather pattern expected by the end of 
the workweek will result in a high potential for flash flooding and 
mudslides, particularly across eastern Puerto Rico.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-151000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.201015T1800Z-201017T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-North
Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-Western
Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Morovis, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta, Las 
Piedras, Cabo Rojo, Lajas, Trujillo Alto, Yabucoa, Arecibo, 
Mayaguez, Maunabo, Anna's Retreat, San Sebastian, Aibonito, Guayama, 
Corozal, Charlotte Amalie, Naguabo, Maricao, Charlotte Amalie West, 
San Juan, Jayuya, Gurabo, Hormigueros, Carolina, Aguada, Rincon, 
Adjuntas, Vega Alta, Vieques, Christiansted, Lares, Loiza, Florida, 
Manati, Aguadilla, Cidra, Canovanas, Sabana Grande, Orocovis, 
Luquillo, Isabela, Arroyo, Ponce, Moca, Juncos, Vega Baja, Camuy, 
Aguas Buenas, Guanica, Culebra, Bayamon, Guayanilla, Cruz Bay, San 
German, Catano, Ceiba, Ciales, Juana Diaz, Quebradillas, 
Frederiksted Southeast, Yauco, Rio Grande, Utuado, Las Marias, San 
Lorenzo, Humacao, Villalba, Baranquitas, Caguas, Charlotte Amalie 
East, Penuelas, Coamo, Hatillo, Naranjito, Guaynabo, Comerio, 
Frederiksted, Dorado, Grove Place, Toa Baja, Barceloneta, Anasco, 
Cayey, Fajardo, Patillas, and Salinas
1252 PM AST Wed Oct 14 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, 
  including the following areas, in Puerto Rico, Central Interior, 
  Culebra, Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central, 
  Northeast, Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, 
  Southeast, Southwest, Vieques and Western Interior. In Virgin 
  Islands, St Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

* From Thursday afternoon through Friday evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across the local islands, 
  particularly on Thursday afternoon into Friday evening. Plenty of 
  low-level moisture which is associated with a tropical disturbance 
  now located east of the Lesser Antilles is expected to combine 
  with an upper level trough to result in periods of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands 
  Thursday afternoon into Friday evening.

* Based on the latest guidance, showers and thunderstorms will reach 
  the US Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico Thursday afternoon, 
  becoming more frequent by Friday morning. Showers and 
  thunderstorms are then expected to spread across the western areas 
  of Puerto Rico by midday Friday. Rainfall accumulations across 
  eastern Puerto Rico are expected to range between 2 and 4 inches 
  with isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere in Puerto Rico and across 
  the U.S. Virgin Islands, 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated 
  higher amounts are possible.

Soils are already saturated across the eastern third of Puerto Rico 
and portions of the western interior, where rivers and small streams 
are running well above normal. As a result, there is a high risk for 
flash flooding particularly across the eastern third of the island 
Thursday afternoon into Friday evening. Any period of prolonged 
heavy rainfall will result in mudslides in areas of steep terrain. 
At this time, the highest risk of heavy rainfall is expected on 
Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take 
action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

JA
10 follow-up statements
811 
WGCA62 TJSJ 150121
FFASJU

Flood Watch
National Weather Service San Juan PR
921 PM AST Wed Oct 14 2020

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-151030-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.201015T1800Z-201017T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-North
Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-Western
Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Morovis, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta, Las 
Piedras, Cabo Rojo, Lajas, Trujillo Alto, Yabucoa, Arecibo, 
Mayaguez, Maunabo, Anna's Retreat, San Sebastian, Aibonito, Guayama, 
Corozal, Charlotte Amalie, Naguabo, Maricao, Charlotte Amalie West, 
San Juan, Jayuya, Gurabo, Hormigueros, Carolina, Aguada, Rincon, 
Adjuntas, Vega Alta, Vieques, Christiansted, Lares, Loiza, Florida, 
Manati, Aguadilla, Cidra, Canovanas, Sabana Grande, Orocovis, 
Luquillo, Isabela, Arroyo, Ponce, Moca, Juncos, Vega Baja, Camuy, 
Aguas Buenas, Guanica, Culebra, Bayamon, Guayanilla, Cruz Bay, San 
German, Catano, Ceiba, Ciales, Juana Diaz, Quebradillas, 
Frederiksted Southeast, Yauco, Rio Grande, Utuado, Las Marias, San 
Lorenzo, Humacao, Villalba, Baranquitas, Caguas, Charlotte Amalie 
East, Penuelas, Coamo, Hatillo, Naranjito, Guaynabo, Comerio, 
Frederiksted, Dorado, Grove Place, Toa Baja, Barceloneta, Anasco, 
Cayey, Fajardo, Patillas, and Salinas
921 PM AST Wed Oct 14 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, including the 
  following areas, in Puerto Rico, Central Interior, Culebra, 
  Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central, Northeast, 
  Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, Southeast, 
  Southwest, Vieques and Western Interior. In Virgin Islands, St 
  Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

* From Thursday afternoon through Friday evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across the local islands, 
  particularly on Thursday afternoon into Friday evening. Plenty of 
  low-level moisture which is associated with a tropical disturbance 
  now located east of the Lesser Antilles is expected to combine 
  with an upper level trough to result in periods of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands 
  Thursday afternoon into Friday evening.

* Based on the latest guidance, showers and thunderstorms will reach 
  the US Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico Thursday afternoon, 
  becoming more frequent by Friday morning. Showers and 
  thunderstorms are then expected to spread across the western areas 
  of Puerto Rico by midday Friday. Rainfall accumulations across 
  eastern Puerto Rico are expected to range between 2 and 4 inches 
  with isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere in Puerto Rico and across 
  the U.S. Virgin Islands, 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated 
  higher amounts are possible.

Soils are already saturated across the eastern third of Puerto Rico 
and portions of the western interior, where rivers and small streams 
are running well above normal. As a result, there is a high risk for 
flash flooding particularly across the eastern third of the island 
Thursday afternoon into Friday evening. Any period of prolonged 
heavy rainfall will result in mudslides in areas of steep terrain. 
At this time, the highest risk of heavy rainfall is expected on 
Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take 
action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

WS
038 
WGCA62 TJSJ 150836
FFASJU

Flood Watch
National Weather Service San Juan PR
436 AM AST Thu Oct 15 2020

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-151645-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.201015T1800Z-201017T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-North
Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-Western
Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Morovis, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta, Las 
Piedras, Cabo Rojo, Lajas, Trujillo Alto, Yabucoa, Arecibo, 
Mayaguez, Maunabo, Anna's Retreat, San Sebastian, Aibonito, Guayama, 
Corozal, Charlotte Amalie, Naguabo, Maricao, Charlotte Amalie West, 
San Juan, Jayuya, Gurabo, Hormigueros, Carolina, Aguada, Rincon, 
Adjuntas, Vega Alta, Vieques, Christiansted, Lares, Loiza, Florida, 
Manati, Aguadilla, Cidra, Canovanas, Sabana Grande, Orocovis, 
Luquillo, Isabela, Arroyo, Ponce, Moca, Juncos, Vega Baja, Camuy, 
Aguas Buenas, Guanica, Culebra, Bayamon, Guayanilla, Cruz Bay, San 
German, Catano, Ceiba, Ciales, Juana Diaz, Quebradillas, 
Frederiksted Southeast, Yauco, Rio Grande, Utuado, Las Marias, San 
Lorenzo, Humacao, Villalba, Baranquitas, Caguas, Charlotte Amalie 
East, Penuelas, Coamo, Hatillo, Naranjito, Guaynabo, Comerio, 
Frederiksted, Dorado, Grove Place, Toa Baja, Barceloneta, Anasco, 
Cayey, Fajardo, Patillas, and Salinas
436 AM AST Thu Oct 15 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, including the 
  following areas, in Puerto Rico, Central Interior, Culebra, 
  Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central, Northeast, 
  Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, Southeast, 
  Southwest, Vieques and Western Interior. In Virgin Islands, St 
  Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

* From 2 PM AST this afternoon through Friday evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across the local 
  islands,   particularly this afternoon into Friday evening. A 
  tropical disturbance with abundant moisture, which is now located 
  near the Lesser Antilles, is expected to interact with an upper 
  level trough to aid in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall 
  across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
  especially this afternoon into Friday evening. 

* Showers will continue to increase across the surrounding waters of 
  Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as the tropical wave and 
  associated moisture moves closer to the region. Thunderstorms with 
  periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are likely to persist this 
  afternoon, becoming more frequent by Friday morning. Rainfall 
  accumulations across eastern Puerto Rico will range between 2 and 
  4 inches with isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere in Puerto Rico 
  and across the U.S. Virgin Islands, 1 to 3 inches of rain with 
  isolated higher amounts are possible.

Soils are already saturated across the eastern third of Puerto Rico 
and portions of the western interior, where rivers and small streams 
are running well above normal. As a result, there is a high risk for 
flash flooding particularly across the eastern third of the island 
this afternoon into Friday evening. Any period of prolonged 
heavy rainfall will result in mudslides in areas of steep terrain. 
At this time, the highest risk of heavy rainfall is expected on 
Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take 
action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

CAM
561 
WGCA62 TJSJ 151615
FFASJU

Flood Watch
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1215 PM AST Thu Oct 15 2020

.Unstable weather conditions along with abundant tropical moisture 
will cause periods of heavy rainfall this afternoon into Friday 
evening.

.Saturated soils and rainy weather expected, will result in a high 
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, particularly across 
eastern Puerto Rico.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-161000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.201015T1800Z-201017T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-North
Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-Western
Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Morovis, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta, Las 
Piedras, Cabo Rojo, Lajas, Trujillo Alto, Yabucoa, Arecibo, 
Mayaguez, Maunabo, Anna's Retreat, San Sebastian, Aibonito, Guayama, 
Corozal, Charlotte Amalie, Naguabo, Maricao, Charlotte Amalie West, 
San Juan, Jayuya, Gurabo, Hormigueros, Carolina, Aguada, Rincon, 
Adjuntas, Vega Alta, Vieques, Christiansted, Lares, Loiza, Florida, 
Manati, Aguadilla, Cidra, Canovanas, Sabana Grande, Orocovis, 
Luquillo, Isabela, Arroyo, Ponce, Moca, Juncos, Vega Baja, Camuy, 
Aguas Buenas, Guanica, Culebra, Bayamon, Guayanilla, Cruz Bay, San 
German, Catano, Ceiba, Ciales, Juana Diaz, Quebradillas, 
Frederiksted Southeast, Yauco, Rio Grande, Utuado, Las Marias, San 
Lorenzo, Humacao, Villalba, Baranquitas, Caguas, Charlotte Amalie 
East, Penuelas, Coamo, Hatillo, Naranjito, Guaynabo, Comerio, 
Frederiksted, Dorado, Grove Place, Toa Baja, Barceloneta, Anasco, 
Cayey, Fajardo, Patillas, and Salinas
1215 PM AST Thu Oct 15 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, including the 
  following areas, in Puerto Rico, Central Interior, Culebra, 
  Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central, Northeast, 
  Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, Southeast, 
  Southwest, Vieques and Western Interior. In Virgin Islands, St 
  Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

* Through Friday evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across the local 
  islands,   starting this afternoon into Friday evening. A tropical 
  wave with abundant moisture is expected to interact with an upper 
  level trough to aid in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall 
  across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands this afternoon into 
  Friday evening.

* Showers will continue to increase across the surrounding waters of 
  Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as the tropical wave and 
  associated moisture moves closer to the region. Thunderstorms with 
  periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected to persist this 
  afternoon, becoming more frequent by Friday morning. Rainfall 
  accumulations across eastern Puerto Rico will range between 2 and 
  4 inches with isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere in Puerto Rico, 
  and across the U.S. Virgin Islands, 1 to 3 inches of rain with 
  isolated higher amounts are possible.

Soils are already saturated across the eastern third of Puerto Rico 
and portions of the western interior, where rivers and small streams 
are running well above normal. As a result, there is a high risk for 
flash flooding particularly across the eastern third of the island 
this afternoon into Friday evening. Any period of prolonged 
heavy rainfall will result in mudslides in areas of steep terrain. 
At this time, the highest risk of heavy rainfall is expected on 
Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take 
action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

JA
385 
WGCA62 TJSJ 160925
FFASJU

Flood Watch
National Weather Service San Juan PR
525 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2020

.Unstable weather conditions along with abundant tropical moisture 
will cause periods of heavy rainfall through this evening.

.Saturated soils and rainy weather expected, will result in a high 
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, particularly across 
eastern Puerto Rico.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-161730-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-201017T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-North
Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-Western
Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Morovis, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta, Las 
Piedras, Cabo Rojo, Lajas, Trujillo Alto, Yabucoa, Arecibo, 
Mayaguez, Maunabo, Anna's Retreat, San Sebastian, Aibonito, Guayama, 
Corozal, Charlotte Amalie, Naguabo, Maricao, Charlotte Amalie West, 
San Juan, Jayuya, Gurabo, Hormigueros, Carolina, Aguada, Rincon, 
Adjuntas, Vega Alta, Vieques, Christiansted, Lares, Loiza, Florida, 
Manati, Aguadilla, Cidra, Canovanas, Sabana Grande, Orocovis, 
Luquillo, Isabela, Arroyo, Ponce, Moca, Juncos, Vega Baja, Camuy, 
Aguas Buenas, Guanica, Culebra, Bayamon, Guayanilla, Cruz Bay, San 
German, Catano, Ceiba, Ciales, Juana Diaz, Quebradillas, 
Frederiksted Southeast, Yauco, Rio Grande, Utuado, Las Marias, San 
Lorenzo, Humacao, Villalba, Baranquitas, Caguas, Charlotte Amalie 
East, Penuelas, Coamo, Hatillo, Naranjito, Guaynabo, Comerio, 
Frederiksted, Dorado, Grove Place, Toa Baja, Barceloneta, Anasco, 
Cayey, Fajardo, Patillas, and Salinas
525 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, including the 
  following areas, in Puerto Rico, Central Interior, Culebra, 
  Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central, Northeast, 
  Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, Southeast, 
  Southwest, Vieques and Western Interior. In Virgin Islands, St 
  Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

* Through this evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across the local 
  islands,   through this evening. A tropical wave with abundant 
  moisture is expected to interact with an upper level trough to aid 
  in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico and 
  the US Virgin Islands.


* Showers will continue to increase across the surrounding waters of 
  Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as the tropical wave and 
  associated moisture cross the region. Thunderstorms with periods 
  of moderate to heavy rainfall are likely, especially late this 
  morning into the afternoon hours. Rainfall accumulations across 
  eastern Puerto Rico will range between 2 and 4 inches with 
  isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere in Puerto Rico, and across the 
  U.S. Virgin Islands, 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated higher 
  amounts are possible.

Soils are already saturated across the eastern third of Puerto Rico 
and portions of the western interior, where rivers and small streams 
are running well above normal. As a result, there is a high risk for 
flash flooding particularly across the eastern third of the island 
later today and through this evening. Any period of prolonged
heavy rainfall will result in mudslides in areas of steep terrain. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

&&

$$

CAM
952 
WGCA62 TJSJ 160940 CCA
FFASJU

Flood Watch
National Weather Service San Juan PR
525 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2020

.Unstable weather conditions along with abundant tropical moisture 
will cause periods of heavy rainfall through this evening.

.Saturated soils and rainy weather expected, will result in a high 
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, particularly across 
eastern Puerto Rico.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-161730-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-201017T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-North
Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-Western
Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Morovis, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta, Las 
Piedras, Cabo Rojo, Lajas, Trujillo Alto, Yabucoa, Arecibo, 
Mayaguez, Maunabo, Anna's Retreat, San Sebastian, Aibonito, Guayama, 
Corozal, Charlotte Amalie, Naguabo, Maricao, Charlotte Amalie West, 
San Juan, Jayuya, Gurabo, Hormigueros, Carolina, Aguada, Rincon, 
Adjuntas, Vega Alta, Vieques, Christiansted, Lares, Loiza, Florida, 
Manati, Aguadilla, Cidra, Canovanas, Sabana Grande, Orocovis, 
Luquillo, Isabela, Arroyo, Ponce, Moca, Juncos, Vega Baja, Camuy, 
Aguas Buenas, Guanica, Culebra, Bayamon, Guayanilla, Cruz Bay, San 
German, Catano, Ceiba, Ciales, Juana Diaz, Quebradillas, 
Frederiksted Southeast, Yauco, Rio Grande, Utuado, Las Marias, San 
Lorenzo, Humacao, Villalba, Baranquitas, Caguas, Charlotte Amalie 
East, Penuelas, Coamo, Hatillo, Naranjito, Guaynabo, Comerio, 
Frederiksted, Dorado, Grove Place, Toa Baja, Barceloneta, Anasco, 
Cayey, Fajardo, Patillas, and Salinas
525 AM AST Fri Oct 16 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, including the 
  following areas, in Puerto Rico, Central Interior, Culebra, 
  Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central, Northeast, 
  Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, Southeast, 
  Southwest, Vieques and Western Interior. In Virgin Islands, St 
  Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

* Through this evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across the local 
  islands,   through this evening. A tropical wave with abundant 
  moisture is expected to interact with an upper level trough to aid 
  in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico and 
  the US Virgin Islands.


* Showers will continue to increase across the surrounding waters of 
  Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands as the tropical wave and 
  associated moisture cross the region. Thunderstorms with periods 
  of moderate to heavy rainfall are likely, especially late this 
  morning into the afternoon hours. Rainfall accumulations across 
  eastern Puerto Rico will range between 2 and 4 inches with 
  isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere in Puerto Rico, and across the 
  U.S. Virgin Islands, 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated higher 
  amounts are possible.

Soils are already saturated across the eastern third of Puerto Rico 
and portions of the western interior, where rivers and small streams 
are running well above normal. As a result, there is a high risk for 
flash flooding particularly across the eastern third of the island 
later today and through this evening. Any period of prolonged
heavy rainfall will result in mudslides in areas of steep terrain. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to 
flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take 
action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

CAM
305 
WGCA62 TJSJ 161656
FFASJU

Flood Watch
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1256 PM AST Fri Oct 16 2020

.Unstable weather conditions along with abundant tropical moisture 
will cause periods of heavy rainfall through this evening.

.Saturated soils and rainy weather expected this afternoon, will 
result in a high potential for flash flooding and mudslides.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-170000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-201017T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-North
Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-Western
Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Morovis, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta, Las 
Piedras, Cabo Rojo, Lajas, Trujillo Alto, Yabucoa, Arecibo, 
Mayaguez, Maunabo, Anna's Retreat, San Sebastian, Aibonito, Guayama, 
Corozal, Charlotte Amalie, Naguabo, Maricao, Charlotte Amalie West, 
San Juan, Jayuya, Gurabo, Hormigueros, Carolina, Aguada, Rincon, 
Adjuntas, Vega Alta, Vieques, Christiansted, Lares, Loiza, Florida, 
Manati, Aguadilla, Cidra, Canovanas, Sabana Grande, Orocovis, 
Luquillo, Isabela, Arroyo, Ponce, Moca, Juncos, Vega Baja, Camuy, 
Aguas Buenas, Guanica, Culebra, Bayamon, Guayanilla, Cruz Bay, San 
German, Catano, Ceiba, Ciales, Juana Diaz, Quebradillas, 
Frederiksted Southeast, Yauco, Rio Grande, Utuado, Las Marias, San 
Lorenzo, Humacao, Villalba, Baranquitas, Caguas, Charlotte Amalie 
East, Penuelas, Coamo, Hatillo, Naranjito, Guaynabo, Comerio, 
Frederiksted, Dorado, Grove Place, Toa Baja, Barceloneta, Anasco, 
Cayey, Fajardo, Patillas, and Salinas
1256 PM AST Fri Oct 16 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, including the 
  following areas, in Puerto Rico, Central Interior, Culebra, 
  Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central, Northeast, 
  Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, Southeast, 
  Southwest, Vieques and Western Interior. In Virgin Islands, St 
  Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

* Until 8 PM AST this evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across the local islands, 
  through this evening. A tropical wave with abundant moisture is 
  interacting with an upper level trough and causing moderate to 
  heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.


* Showers and thunderstorms will continue across Puerto Rico, the 
  U.S. Virgin Islands, and the surrounding waters as the tropical 
  wave and associated moisture crosses the region. Total rainfall 
  accumulations across eastern Puerto Rico will range between 2 and 
  4 inches with isolated higher amounts. Elsewhere in Puerto Rico, 
  and across the U.S. Virgin Islands, 1 to 3 inches of rain with 
  isolated higher amounts are possible.

Soils are already saturated across the eastern third of Puerto Rico 
and portions of the western interior, where rivers and small streams 
are running well above normal. Therefore, any prolonged period of 
heavy rainfall will result in flooding and possible mudslides in 
areas of steep terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take 
action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

JA
932 
WGCA62 TJSJ 162318
FFASJU

Flood Watch
National Weather Service San Juan PR
718 PM AST Fri Oct 16 2020

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-170730-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-201018T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-North
Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-Western
Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Morovis, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta, Las 
Piedras, Cabo Rojo, Lajas, Trujillo Alto, Yabucoa, Arecibo, 
Mayaguez, Maunabo, Anna's Retreat, San Sebastian, Aibonito, Guayama, 
Corozal, Charlotte Amalie, Naguabo, Maricao, Charlotte Amalie West, 
San Juan, Jayuya, Gurabo, Hormigueros, Carolina, Aguada, Rincon, 
Adjuntas, Vega Alta, Vieques, Christiansted, Lares, Loiza, Florida, 
Manati, Aguadilla, Cidra, Canovanas, Sabana Grande, Orocovis, 
Luquillo, Isabela, Arroyo, Ponce, Moca, Juncos, Vega Baja, Camuy, 
Aguas Buenas, Guanica, Culebra, Bayamon, Guayanilla, Cruz Bay, San 
German, Catano, Ceiba, Ciales, Juana Diaz, Quebradillas, 
Frederiksted Southeast, Yauco, Rio Grande, Utuado, Las Marias, San 
Lorenzo, Humacao, Villalba, Baranquitas, Caguas, Charlotte Amalie 
East, Penuelas, Coamo, Hatillo, Naranjito, Guaynabo, Comerio, 
Frederiksted, Dorado, Grove Place, Toa Baja, Barceloneta, Anasco, 
Cayey, Fajardo, Patillas, and Salinas
718 PM AST Fri Oct 16 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, including the 
  following areas, in Puerto Rico, Central Interior, Culebra, 
  Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central, Northeast, 
  Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, Southeast, 
  Southwest, Vieques and Western Interior. In Virgin Islands, St 
  Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

* Through Saturday evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across the local islands, 
  through Saturday, especially in Puerto Rico. A tropical wave with 
  abundant moisture is interacting with an upper level trough and 
  causing moderate to heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico and the US 
  Virgin Islands.


* Showers and thunderstorms will resume across Puerto Rico Saturday, 
  and continue over the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the surrounding 
  waters as the tropical wave and associated moisture exits the 
  region. Total rainfall accumulations across Puerto Rico will range 
  between 1 and 3 inches with isolated higher amounts. In the U.S. 
  Virgin Islands, up to 1.5 inches of rain with isolated higher 
  amounts are possible.

Soils are already saturated across the eastern third of Puerto Rico 
and portions of the western interior, where rivers and small streams 
are running well above normal. Therefore, any prolonged period of 
heavy rainfall will result in flooding and possible mudslides in 
areas of steep terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take 
action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

WS
456 
WGCA62 TJSJ 170912
FFASJU

Flood Watch
National Weather Service San Juan PR
512 AM AST Sat Oct 17 2020

.Unstable weather conditions along with abundant tropical moisture 
will cause periods of heavy rainfall through this evening.

.Saturated soils and rainy weather will result in a high potential 
for flash flooding and mudslides.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-171715-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-201018T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-North
Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-Western
Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Morovis, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta, Las 
Piedras, Cabo Rojo, Lajas, Trujillo Alto, Yabucoa, Arecibo, 
Mayaguez, Maunabo, Anna's Retreat, San Sebastian, Aibonito, Guayama, 
Corozal, Charlotte Amalie, Naguabo, Maricao, Charlotte Amalie West, 
San Juan, Jayuya, Gurabo, Hormigueros, Carolina, Aguada, Rincon, 
Adjuntas, Vega Alta, Vieques, Christiansted, Lares, Loiza, Florida, 
Manati, Aguadilla, Cidra, Canovanas, Sabana Grande, Orocovis, 
Luquillo, Isabela, Arroyo, Ponce, Moca, Juncos, Vega Baja, Camuy, 
Aguas Buenas, Guanica, Culebra, Bayamon, Guayanilla, Cruz Bay, San 
German, Catano, Ceiba, Ciales, Juana Diaz, Quebradillas, 
Frederiksted Southeast, Yauco, Rio Grande, Utuado, Las Marias, San 
Lorenzo, Humacao, Villalba, Baranquitas, Caguas, Charlotte Amalie 
East, Penuelas, Coamo, Hatillo, Naranjito, Guaynabo, Comerio, 
Frederiksted, Dorado, Grove Place, Toa Baja, Barceloneta, Anasco, 
Cayey, Fajardo, Patillas, and Salinas
512 AM AST Sat Oct 17 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, including the 
  following areas, in Puerto Rico, Central Interior, Culebra, 
  Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central, Northeast, 
  Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, Southeast, 
  Southwest, Vieques and Western Interior. In Virgin Islands, St 
  Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

* Through this evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across the local islands, 
  through this evening, especially in Puerto Rico. Abundant moisture 
  from yesterday's tropical wave will produce periods of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands 
  through at least this evening.


* Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the U.S. Virgin 
  Islands through this afternoon, and will resume across Puerto Rico 
  by mid-morning and through the afternoon. Total rainfall 
  accumulations across Puerto Rico will range between 1 and 3 inches 
  with isolated higher amounts. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, up to 
  1.5 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts are possible.

Soils are already saturated across the eastern third of Puerto Rico 
and portions of the western interior, where rivers and small streams 
are running well above normal. Therefore, any prolonged period of 
heavy rainfall will result in flooding and possible mudslides in 
areas of steep terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take 
action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

CAM
042 
WGCA62 TJSJ 171617
FFASJU

Flood Watch
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1217 PM AST Sat Oct 17 2020

.Unstable weather conditions along with abundant tropical moisture 
will cause periods of heavy rainfall through this evening.

.Saturated soils and rainy weather will result in a high potential 
for flash flooding and mudslides.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-180000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-201018T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-North
Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-Western
Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Morovis, Santa Isabel, Toa Alta, Las 
Piedras, Cabo Rojo, Lajas, Trujillo Alto, Yabucoa, Arecibo, 
Mayaguez, Maunabo, Anna's Retreat, San Sebastian, Aibonito, Guayama, 
Corozal, Charlotte Amalie, Naguabo, Maricao, Charlotte Amalie West, 
San Juan, Jayuya, Gurabo, Hormigueros, Carolina, Aguada, Rincon, 
Adjuntas, Vega Alta, Vieques, Christiansted, Lares, Loiza, Florida, 
Manati, Aguadilla, Cidra, Canovanas, Sabana Grande, Orocovis, 
Luquillo, Isabela, Arroyo, Ponce, Moca, Juncos, Vega Baja, Camuy, 
Aguas Buenas, Guanica, Culebra, Bayamon, Guayanilla, Cruz Bay, San 
German, Catano, Ceiba, Ciales, Juana Diaz, Quebradillas, 
Frederiksted Southeast, Yauco, Rio Grande, Utuado, Las Marias, San 
Lorenzo, Humacao, Villalba, Baranquitas, Caguas, Charlotte Amalie 
East, Penuelas, Coamo, Hatillo, Naranjito, Guaynabo, Comerio, 
Frederiksted, Dorado, Grove Place, Toa Baja, Barceloneta, Anasco, 
Cayey, Fajardo, Patillas, and Salinas
1217 PM AST Sat Oct 17 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, including the 
  following areas, in Puerto Rico, Central Interior, Culebra, 
  Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central, Northeast, 
  Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, Southeast, 
  Southwest, Vieques and Western Interior. In Virgin Islands, St 
  Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

* Until 8 PM AST this evening

* There is a high risk for flash flooding across the local islands 
  through this evening, especially in Puerto Rico. Abundant moisture 
  from yesterday's tropical wave will produce periods of moderate to 
  heavy rainfall, especially across interior and western portions of 
  Puerto Rico, through this evening.


* Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening, 
  particularly across interior and western portions of Puerto Rico. 
  Total rainfall accumulations across Puerto Rico will range between 
  1 and 3 inches with isolated higher amounts. In the U.S. Virgin 
  Islands, some additional showers will also be possible through 
  this evening, with additional rainfall accumulations of between 
  0.5 and 1 inch possible.

Soils are already saturated across the eastern third of Puerto Rico 
and portions of the western interior, where rivers and small streams 
are running well above normal. Therefore, any prolonged period of 
heavy rainfall will result in flooding and possible mudslides in 
areas of steep terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take 
action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.

&&

$$

GL
730 
WGCA62 TJSJ 172348
FFASJU

FLASH FLOOD WATCH
National Weather Service San Juan PR
748 PM AST Sat Oct 17 2020

...The potential for flooding rains has decreased...

.Although some showers are expected early this evening and through
the overnight hours across portions of eastern Puerto Rico and 
the U.S. Virgin Islands, the threat for widespread flash flooding
has diminished.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-180100-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-201018T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-
North Central-Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-Northwest-
Western Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Southwest-Culebra-Vieques-
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands-St Croix-
Including the cities of Bayamon, Carolina, Catano, Guaynabo, 
San Juan, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, Trujillo Alto, Ceiba, Canovanas, 
Fajardo, Humacao, Loiza, Luquillo, Naguabo, Rio Grande, Arroyo, 
Guayama, Maunabo, Patillas, Salinas, Yabucoa, Aguas Buenas, 
Caguas, Cayey, Cidra, Comerio, Gurabo, Juncos, Las Piedras, 
San Lorenzo, Arecibo, Barceloneta, Dorado, Florida, Manati, 
Vega Alta, Vega Baja, Aibonito, Baranquitas, Ciales, Coamo, 
Corozal, Jayuya, Morovis, Naranjito, Orocovis, Villalba, 
Guayanilla, Juana Diaz, Yauco, Penuelas, Ponce, Santa Isabel, 
Aguadilla, Camuy, Hatillo, Isabela, Quebradillas, Adjuntas, 
Lares, Las Marias, Maricao, Sabana Grande, San Sebastian, Utuado,
Aguada, Anasco, Hormigueros, Mayaguez, Moca, Rincon, San German, 
Cabo Rojo, Guanica, Lajas, Culebra, Vieques, Anna's Retreat, 
Charlotte Amalie, Charlotte Amalie East, Charlotte Amalie West, 
Cruz Bay, Christiansted, Frederiksted, Frederiksted Southeast, 
and Grove Place
748 PM AST Sat Oct 17 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM AST THIS EVENING...

The threat for widespread rainfall across Puerto Rico and the 
U.S. Virgin Islands has diminished and therefore the Flash Flood 
Watch will be let to expire at 8 PM AST this evening. Passing
showers are expected for the rest of tonight across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, but drier air is expected
to filter across the region later tonight.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS JSJ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Oct 14, 10:34 AM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 14, 10:34 AM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1134 AM AST Wed Oct 14 2020

.UPDATE...Fairly quiet morning weatherwise across the local
islands, except showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
local waters early in the morning. A small area of disturbed
weather is moving into the local area this afternoon. Combined
with diurnal heating and local effects, showers and thunderstorms
are expected across the interior and western sections of PR.
Isolated moderate showers can also be observed across the USVI.
No changes were made to the inherited forecast. That said, the
latest guidance is suggesting that the tropical wave expected for
Thursday and Friday may cause significant rainfall across Puerto
Rico, especially for eastern Puerto Rico. This rainfall could be
significant enough to cause at least urban and small stream
flooding. Not ruling out river flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through the forecast period, VCSH
is expected across most of the local terminals. However, VCTS is
expected at TJSJ and TJBQ after 14/17Z, with the possibility of
TEMPO MVFR conds due to TSRA. Wx to improve after 14/22Z. Light
easterly winds expected with sea breeze variations through the
day.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions expected. Seas up to 3 feet and
winds up to 10 knots today. Low risk of rip currents for the
local beaches.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 AM AST Wed Oct 14 2020/

SYNOPSIS...

Unstable conditions will continue through the end of the workweek,
as an upper level trough to our northeast extends into the local
area and a tropical wave moves across the region on Thursday and
Friday. Urban and small stream flooding is expected as well
as localized flash flooding and mudslides in areas of steep terrain
with the heaviest showers over mainland Puerto Rico. An upper
level ridge will settle across our area over the weekend but
sufficient lingering tropical moisture from the passage of the
tropical wave could possibly generate some shower and
thunderstorm activity. Tranquil marine conditions and light to
moderate winds up to 15 knots are expected across the regional
waters through early Thursday. Later, seas of up to 6 feet through
Friday in some areas over the local waters could be possible due
to the approaching tropical wave. Moderate risk of rip currents is
forecasted for the weekend for northern beaches of Puerto Rico
and local islands.

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Unstable conditions will continue through the end of the workweek,
as an upper level trough to our northeast extends into the local
area and a tropical wave moves across the region on Thursday and
Friday. This will cause pooling of tropical moisture across the
forecast area, with precipitable water content fluctuating between
2.00-2.25 inches during the next few days. Light steering winds with
an east to southeasterly component are expected today, this will
increase the flooding potential across all the islands due to slow
moving storms. Urban and small stream flooding is expected as well
as localized flash flooding and mudslides in areas of steep terrain
with the heaviest showers over mainland Puerto Rico.

The areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase with
the passage of a tropical wave, currently located east of the
Leeward Islands, between Thursday and Friday as the wave moves
westward across the islands. Winds are expected to increase with the
passage of the wave and thunderstorms should bring squally weather
across portions of the regional waters. Heavy showers over saturated
soils during this period will likely cause flash flooding across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...

As the tropical wave continues its path westward by early Saturday,
a remaining tail of moisture will fluctuate across our area through
late Monday. At the same time a building upper level ridge will
settle over the forecast area as a very strong upper level low and
an induced surface trough over the central tropical Atlantic moves
southward and remain to the northeast of Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin
Islands. A mid level dry airmass will be advected by this strong
upper level/surface low, however, it will remain just north of our
region. Latest model guidance now puts the mid level moisture
boundary to our north with a moister environment than previously
suggested. Precipitable water values will decrease from 2.2 inches
early Saturday to almost 1.7 inches through Monday and 500 mb
temperatures will remain at or below -6 degrees celsius.

Although some subsidence will be present over the weekend through
Monday due to ridging aloft, moderately favorable conditions will
still be present for occasional passing showers in the morning
hours and afternoon shallow convection development with possible
deep convective activity over areas with stronger local surface
heating. Urban and small stream flooding are possible in areas
with the heaviest showers especially over saturated soils.
However, there exist high uncertainty in the forecast depending
where the mid level moisture gradient will remain throughout this
period. According to model guidance, precipitable water values
could increase on Monday and Tuesday to more than 2 inches as the
mid level moisture boundary moves northward increasing the
probability of shower and thunderstorm activity across the area,
but, as mentioned above, high uncertainty exist for the long term
forecast.

AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
terminals early in the fcst period. However, TEMPO MVFR conds are
possible through the rest of morning hours across the USVI terminals
due to +SHRA. Also, TSRA is expected to develop over the eastern
interior, central and western PR btw 16z-22z, this will cause tempo
MVFR conds at TJBQ/TJSJ. Low level winds ESE around 10 kts, with sea
breeze variations aft 14z.

MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions with seas below 5 feet and light
to moderate winds up to 15 knots are expected across the regional
waters through early Thursday. This will maintain conditions
below small craft advisory criteria. Later, seas of up to 6 feet
trough Friday in some areas over the local waters could be
possible due to an approaching tropical wave. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will persist through the week due to the
effects of an upper-level trough and the approaching tropical
wave. Moderate risk of rip currents is forecasted for the weekend
for northern beaches of Puerto Rico and local islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  88  78 /  60  50  80  60
STT  88  79  87  78 /  50  50  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....CS
PUBLIC DESK...GL
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 14, 4:05 AM CDT, 7 hours 47 minutes before
Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
432 AM AST miercoles 14 de octubre de 2020

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-150930-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-
Aguas cercanas y mar afuera del Atlantico y Caribe-
432 AM AST miercoles 14 de octubre de 2020

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Tronadas...Existe la posibilidad de tronadas con lluvia fuerte y
vientos en rafagas breves hasta esta noche a traves de gran parte de
Puerto Rico.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes pudieran resultar en inundaciones
urbanas y de riachuelos localizadas.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...jueves a martes

Actividad de aguaceros y tronadas por las tardes pudieran resultar
en areas de inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos cada dia,
especialmente a traves del este interior, norte central y oeste de
Puerto Rico. Una onda tropical aumentara el potencial para lluvia
fuerte e inundaciones el jueves y viernes. Un riesgo moderado de
corrientes marinas se espera que aumente y se extienda a traves de
las islas durante el fin de semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones al Servicio Nacional de
Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las indicaciones de las
autoridades locales y estatales.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-150930-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
432 AM AST miercoles 14 de octubre de 2020

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Tronadas...Existe la posibilidad de tronadas con lluvia fuerte y
vientos en rafagas breves hasta esta noche a traves de las islas.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias fuertes pudieran resultar en inundaciones
menores.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...jueves a martes

Una onda tropical aumentara el potencial para lluvia fuerte e
inundaciones el jueves y viernes. Un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas se espera que aumente y se extienda a traves de las islas
durante el fin de semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones al Servicio Nacional
de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las indicaciones
de las autoridades locales y estatales.

The office that day

Everything else NWS JSJ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 14, 11:58 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJSJ3 hr
Oct 14, 12:30 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJSJ2 hr
Oct 14, 1:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementJSJ58 min
Oct 14, 1:15 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJSJ3 hr
Oct 14, 1:19 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJSJ3 hr
Oct 14, 1:52 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJSJ113 min
Oct 14, 3:03 PM CDTSmall Craft AdvisoryJSJ24 hr
Oct 14, 3:21 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryJSJ100 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Puerto Rico, 2020Flash Flood Watches in U.S. Virgin Islands, 2020Every flash flood watch in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.