Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
403 PM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Significant rain has been seen across the region. Conditions are
gradually improving across much of the local islands. Rainbands do
continue to bring showers and periods of rain to the area,
especially in eastern Puerto Rico, aggravating the flooding
conditions seen there. Gusty winds are still possible, especially
near rainbands. Gradual drying overnight into tomorrow will lead to
a more typical pattern for tomorrow and into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Rest of Today through Saturday...

Tropical Storm Isaias continues to pull away from the area, moving
northwest at 15-20 mph. High levels of moisture persist across the
area, however, with rainbands streaming over the local islands.
Associated with some of these rainbands are locally stronger winds,
with gusts to around 30-40 mph, as well as heavy rains. Flash
flooding is already occurring in several portions of Puerto Rico.
Though gradual improvement is starting - and is expected to continue
- flooding will remain a significant concern, and the flash flood
watch is continued into tomorrow morning.

Drier air is forecast to enter the region on Friday. This will help
to bring calmer weather to the area. However, there will remain
sufficient moisture in the lower levels to help sustain some passing
showers during the morning and overnight, as well as to aid in the
development of afternoon showers. Shower activity will be somewhat
inhibited, but is expected to follow the typical pattern.

Patches of moisture will stream across the area on Saturday.
Precipitable water values will likely remain near seasonal normals.
However, conditions aloft are expected to be relatively unfavorable
for convective development, due to a mid- to upper-level ridge. As
such, intense afternoon showers and thunderstorms are not
anticipated.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Saturday...From Prev Discussion...

The TUTT low that digs down into the Atlantic northeast of Puerto
Rico moves west, but stays north of the forecast area in the
latest run. After it passes on Sunday, high pressure moves into
the area Monday and Tuesday. Another TUTT develops in the western
tropical Atlantic and sweeps through the Caribbean sea adjoining
Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Thursday followed by weak high
pressure on Saturday.

The tropical wave that follows Isaias, will be exiting the area
by early Sunday morning, but will be followed closely by a
disturbance presently near 40 degrees west longitude. It is
expected to brush by the area Sunday night. East southeast to
southeast flow follows this disturbance Monday and Tuesday with
precipitable water values from 1.8 to 2.2 inches. After Tuesday
patches of good moisture move through surrounded by slightly below
normal moisture. These east to southeast winds will also bring
warmer than normal temperatures to the Greater San Juan and
Bayamon metropolitan areas

Sunday through Wednesday 500 mb temperatures range from minus 5 to
minus 6.5 providing the back drop for modest thunderstorms to
develop in the patchy moisture. Some warming occurs Wednesday and
Thursday, but 500 mb temperatures return to even lower values
afterwards. These thunderstorms will be mainly in western and
interior Puerto Rico during the afternoons. Isolated nocturnal
thunderstorms are also possible over the local waters.

&&

.AVIATION...

VCSH/SHRA activity continues for all terminals. Isolated TSRA are
possible through 30/22Z, with the potential generally gradually
decreasing. VCSH/SHRA continues to 31/04Z in the Leeward Islands,
31/07Z for TJBQ, and through at least 31/12Z for all other
terminals. A more typical pattern is expected during the day
tomorrow, with VCSH at TJBQ starting around 31/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the offshore
Atlantic waters as well as the Mona Passage. A small craft advisory
is in effect for the remainder of the local waters. Rough seas
continue, though conditions are gradually improving. Seas are
expected to remain hazardous through tomorrow. Seas of up to 16 to
18 feet, and occasionally to 20 feet, are forecast for overnight
tonight in those areas still under a tropical storm warning.
Elsewhere, seas of up to 10 to 12 feet are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  91  79  93 /  70  20  30  30
STT  82  89  79  89 /  60  20  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for Central
     Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-
     Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and Vicinity-
     Southeast-Southwest-Western Interior.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for Central Interior-
     Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for Central
     Interior-Culebra-Mayaguez and Vicinity-North Central-
     Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for Central
     Interior-Culebra-Mayaguez and Vicinity-Northeast-Ponce and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for North Central-
     Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Culebra-Vieques.

VI...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for St Croix-
     St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST Friday for Caribbean Waters
     of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters of Northern
     Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and
     Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Northwestern Puerto
     Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern Puerto Rico out
     10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern
     Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southwestern Puerto
     Rico out 10 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and
     USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Mona Passage Southward to 17N.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Friday for Anegada Passage
     Southward to 17N.

&&

SHORT TERM...JA/CRS/OM
LONG TERM....RAM/ICP
PUBLIC DESK...RVT