Areal Flood Advisory 310, NWS JSJ

410 
WGCA82 TJSJ 052137
FLSSJU

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service San Juan PR
537 PM AST Thu Nov 5 2020

PRC003-011-083-093-097-099-052147-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FA.Y.0310.000000T0000Z-201105T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Aguada PR-Anasco PR-Las Marias PR-Maricao PR-Mayaguez PR-Moca PR-
537 PM AST Thu Nov 5 2020

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM 
AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AGUADA, ANASCO, LAS MARIAS, MARICAO, MAYAGUEZ 
AND MOCA COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 1830 6718 1835 6723 1838 6723 1842 6716
      1839 6713 1846 6706 1839 6703 1828 6704
      1825 6691 1819 6690 1817 6684 1814 6686
      1817 6705 1814 6716 1821 6715 1830 6722
      1809 6784 1805 6788 1807 6795 1816 6795

$$

ERG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1222 PM AST Thu Nov 5 2020

.UPDATE...The latest guidance suggested that western Puerto Rico
would have a good chance of showers in the afternoon. Therefore
the inherited forecast was adjusted to increase the probability of
rain across west and southwest Puerto Rico in the afternoon hours,
with numerous showers now in the forecast. Also, the probability
of rain was increased across eastern PR in the afternoon hours,
but keeping scattered showers in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through the forecast period. SHRA
activity this afternoon will cause VCSH across the local terminals
this afternoon and tonight. Winds will continue from the east with
sea breeze variations at around 15KT with higher gusts. Winds
expected to diminish tonight to around 10KT or less.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisories continue in effect for the
Atlantic waters and Anegada Passage as seas slowly diminish. There
is also a high risk of rip currents for the beaches of
northwestern to northeastern PR, Culebra and NW Saint Thomas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM AST Thu Nov 5 2020/

SYNOPSIS...Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate
the local weather conditions today. An upper level trough will
gradually erode the high pressure and promote more unstable
conditions through the weekend. A further increase in low level
moisture and rainy weather is forecast through early next week. A
northerly swell will cause hazardous marine and rip current
conditions today.

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

Upper-level high pressure that dominated the local weather will
begin to weaken later today as a mid to upper-level trough develops
over the central Atlantic waters.  At low levels, a surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic is creating brisk easterly winds
across the forecast area. These winds will continue through the
afternoon across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. GOES-16
satellite shows a patch of moisture with a precipitable water value
near 2.0 inches moving across eastern Puerto Rico this morning. The
moisture is inducing isolated to scattered showers, mainly over the
local waters and portions of eastern Puerto Rico. Later today,
isolated to scattered showers will develop over western Puerto Rico
due to local and diurnal effects. However, the brisk easterly winds
will cause showers that develop to scurry across western Puerto
Rico. However, minor flooding and ponding of water on roadways is
possible.

The mid to upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the central
Atlantic waters and continue to weaken the trade wind cap early
Friday; and slowly moisten the mid to upper-level of the atmosphere
across the region.  Guidance shows moisture content remaining above
2.0 inches Friday and Saturday. The increase in moisture content and
local and diurnal effects will promote an uptick in afternoon
convection on Friday and Saturday.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

Latest model guidance continues to suggest an unstable and wet
weather pattern through midweek next week across the region. Early
in the period, Tropical Depression Eta is forecast to redevelop
into a Tropical Storm and move over Cuba. While a weak surface
high pressure moves over the northwestern Atlantic and builds
across the north central Atlantic by the end of the long term
period. At upper levels, a trough pattern is expected to develop
mainly to our northeast. This expected weather pattern will cause
further weakness in the trade wind inversion and promote pooling
of tropical moisture across the forecast area in a light to
moderate southeasterly steering wind flow. Based on this,
diurnally induced afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop each day over mainland PR, while isolated thunderstorm
development is possible across the regional waters through at
least early Wednesday. A drier air mass is forecast to move later
in the forecast period, and fair weather conditions should
prevail by Thursday.

AVIATION...VFR conds are expected through 05/17Z. VCSH across
eastern PR terminals and terminals of USVI through 05/22Z.
SHRA/TSRA over western PR may cause tempo MVFR across the western
terminals from 18Z-22Z. Sfc winds Lgt/Vrb bcmg fm E 10-20 kts with
higher gusts possible.

MARINE...Northerly swell will cause seas to range between 5-8
feet, with the highest seas expected across the offshore Atlantic
waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the northern and
eastern waters of the islands. Breezy trades will continue between
15-20 knots. The swell will also cause breaking wave action along
the northern beaches of the islands, and a High Rip Current Risk
is in effect for the northern beaches of PR, Culebra and St.
Thomas. Marine conditions will gradually improve during the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  86  75 /  50  50  50  40
STT  87  76  85  76 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Culebra-North
     Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for Mayaguez
     and Vicinity.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for St.Thomas...St.
     John...and Adjacent Islands.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
     Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Friday for Atlantic Waters
     of Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST this evening for Anegada
     Passage Southward to 17N.

&&

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....CS
PUBLIC DESK...MB

Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR
408 AM AST jueves 5 de noviembre de 2020

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-060815-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez
Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Aguas cercanas y mar afuera y del
Atlantico y Caribe-
408 AM AST jueves 5 de noviembre de 2020

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Inundcaciones...Lluvias fuertes podrian resultar en acumulaciones de agua
sobre carreteras y en areas de pobre drenaje.

.Viento...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 mph (17
nudos) a traves de las aguas regionales.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 8 pies a traves de las
aguas mar afuera del Atlantico, y hasta 6 pies a traves del resto de las
aguas de Atlantico.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes
marinas para las playas expuestas del norte de Puerto
Rico y Culebra.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...martes a domingo

Se pronistica un aumento en aguaceros cada tarde, especialmente durante el
fin de semana y temprano la proxima semana. Esto resultara en inundaciones
urbanas y de riachuelos en muchas areas. Se espera un riesgo alto de
corrientes marinas para la costa norte de Puerto Rico hasta tarde esta noche,
y un riesgo moderado hasta el fin de semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje, y corrientes marinas al
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las
indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-060815-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-
Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes
del Caribe-
408 AM AST jueves 5 de noviembre de 2020

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Inundcaciones...Lluvias fuertes podrian resultar en acumulaciones de agua
sobre carreteras y en areas de pobre drenaje.

.Viento...Se esperan vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 mph (17
nudos) a traves de las aguas regionales.

.Oleaje...Se espera oleaje picado de hasta 7 pies a traves de las
aguas mar afuera del Atlantico, y hasta 6 pies a traves del resto de las
aguas de Atlantico y Pasaje de Mona.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para las playas del noroeste de San Tomas.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...martes a domingo

Se espera un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas hasta el martes a traves de
las islas. Acumulaciones de aguas en las carreteras y areas urbanas
son posibles durante el fin de semana y hasta temprano la proxima semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se anticipa activacion de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje, y corrientes marinas al
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las
indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.