Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
845 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2020

00z sfc analysis shows a relatively weak pressure pattern over
eastern Kentucky as a stalled frontal boundary remains nearby. For
the most part the weather has been quiet up until just recently as
a couple of stray thunderstorms have developed in the Upper
Cumberland Valley. Any of these storms will be slow moving,
produce heavy rains, and likely gusty winds. Have updated the
forecast to allow for this and tweaked the PoPs and fog potential
through the night. Otherwise, the forecast is on track so have
just added in the latest obs and trends for temperatures,
dewpoints, and sky cover grids. Currently temperatures have
started to drop into the mid to upper 80s with the sun starting to
set. Meanwhile, dewpoints remain quite elevated in the upper 60s
to mid 70s as the winds have been light outside of the odd storm.
The updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshened set of zones and HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2020

Heights have been building over the area today, and this has
really limited shower and storm activity today, despite plenty of
surface based instability across the region. The lack of clouds
has allowed temperatures to soar into the low 90s yet again today.
The main forecast concern going into tonight is again the fog
potential for the river valleys as temperatures in the valleys
cool off into the mid to upper 60s. This should be sufficient for
fog formation late tonight. A vort max will cross central Kentucky
late tonight, and this could provide some ascent for some shower
and storm development from central KY into northern and northeast
Kentucky. The best chance for this to happen will be between 08z
and 12z. In the wake of the vort max, a frontal boundary will be
dragged eastward into the area by midday Wednesday, with
widespread showers and storms developing. Shear profiles are a bit
better on Wednesday and this combined with modest instability
should provide a threat for some severe weather. The dry layer in
the mid levels should support mainly a damaging wind threat with
bowing line segments. Given the better setup tomorrow, our
northern and northeastern area have been placed in a slight risk
for severe storms on Wednesday, with the rest of the area in a
marginal risk. Temperatures could end up a few degrees cooler on
Wednesday given the unsettled weather, and could be much cooler in
some areas depending on which areas are most persistently impacted
by convection.

The severe risk should end fairly early Wednesday evening, but the
boundary will stall over the region and that could keep the threat
of showers and storms going into the evening and overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2020

Instability should build again on Thursday and with the boundary
still over the area, additional showers and storms look to be a
good bet. Given the degree of lift and moisture in place, have
opted for categorical pops for Thursday. A shortwave trough should
finally drive the frontal boundary south by Friday, but not before
one last decent shot for some showers and storms. In the wake of
the trough, generally drier weather will move in for the upcoming
weekend. Despite the lack of lifting mechanisms this weekend,
still wouldn't rule out a few pop up showers or storms on the
higher terrain on Saturday, Sunday, or Monday (although heights
are least favorable for any showers/storms on Sunday). By Tuesday,
our next front may be moving into the area and could produce our
next best shot for some showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2020

Mainly VFR conditions will be seen through the TAF forecast
period, though there will be a few stray storms around for the
next hour or so. Later, some river valley fog will bring
visibilities down late tonight in those locations but spare the
TAF sites. Shower and storm coverage will also increase on
Wednesday and could bring some gusty winds around thunderstorms
along with the possibility of brief periods of MVFR visibilities
or ceilings. Outside of any storms, winds will be mostly light
from the southwest through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-230300-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A stray thunderstorm or two will be possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times through the period, though
mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

A few of the storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening could be
strong enough to produce damaging winds, mainly in northeastern
parts of the state.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for severe weather reports on
Wednesday.

KAS/GREIF

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