Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
442 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 418 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2020

A band of showers and storms continues to slowly migrate south from
Sandy Hook to West Liberty to Stanton. Fleming County has been
spared for the most part with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
just to the south, in close proximity to where the ongoing line of
storms sits. Several have approached severe limits as updrafts
briefly spike, prior to the lack of shear/organization resulting
in cold pools quickly becoming dominant. A strong outflow boundary
continues to push southeast ahead of this activity, which should
help to stabilize the atmosphere back to the northwest in its
wake. Areas near Cranston in Rowan County took a pretty good
soaking, with radar estimates of up to 1.5 inches of rain. Not
expecting much in the way if any hydrology issues given the
stabilizing airmass and subsequent decay of storms upstream.
Nonetheless, with a few hours of bonafide heating left this
afternoon, will have to monitor for additional storm development
and training into this evening. Elsewhere, additional storms will
be seen along the higher terrain near the Virginia border, with
another cluster off the Cumberland Plateau into the Lake
Cumberland region.

While calm winds will take shape tonight, residual cloud cover may
hinder more widespread fog potential. Have kept mention confined to
river valleys for now, but may need to add mention above them if
decent clearing can take shape this evening/early tonight. A
dampening shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Lakes
tonight will pull the aforementioned front back north across the
Ohio Valley for Tuesday, bringing less of a focus for convective
initiation. Height rises on Tuesday may help to limit overall storm
coverage, with some late day passing energy aloft possibly sparking
some activity in the Bluegrass region. Terrain-induced storms will
be more probable earlier in the day as temperatures once again heat
up into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 442 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2020

A progressive/active pattern looks to continue through the rest of
the week. A frontal boundary will remain the focus of this active
weather as instability will remain sufficient through the week
along this boundary. Shear will remain marginal through the week,
so severe risk will be minimal. However, a few storms could
briefly become strong to severe with a damaging wind threat,
especially on Wednesday. Lots of variability on the location of
the boundary beyond Wednesday, so uncertainty greatly increases on
shower/storm chances through the rest of the week. There is
support that the boundary may exit the area by this weekend with
an area of high pressure building into the region. This should
bring the rain chances down through the weekend. However, given
temperatures remaining warm through the weekend, some pop up
showers or storms will remain a possibility each afternoon, just
less coverage. The threat for afternoon pop up showers and storms
will continue into Monday. The heat and humidity looks to stick
around through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2020

Showers/thunderstorms will continue to fire this afternoon into
early this evening along and immediately ahead of a front
currently positioned from south of KFGX to KFFT. Have thus
maintained VCTS mention for this afternoon for all sites, with
prevailing -SHRA at KSYM right along the frontal boundary. While
VFR conditions should primarily prevail, could see a brief stint
of MVFR or worse criteria underneath a shower/storm. Should see
CB and lingering rain diminish for the most part this evening,
with a few showers potentially lingering longer across portions
of the Bluegrass region, as southwest winds of 5-10 knots diminish
to near calm. This will set the stage for valley fog again
tonight into Tuesday morning, with any TAF site that gets rain
today and clears out overnight standing a better chance of seeing
visibility reductions into Tuesday morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GUSEMAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
409 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-211200-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
409 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Some of
these storms could produce isolated strong wind gusts and
localized heavy rainfall.

Heat indices will peak from 95 to around 100 degrees this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Tuesday through
Sunday.

Heat indices will peak from 95 to around 100 degrees on Tuesday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DJ/HAL

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