Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
419 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 358 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

A cold front is analyzed over central Kentucky this afternoon.
Gusty southerly winds continue ahead of this feature. In addition,
temperatures near 90, combined with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s has led to nearly 2500J/kg of MLCAPE across the area. Showers
and a few storms are already developing just ahead of this
boundary across central Kentucky, with a few others showers and
storms developing on the terrain near the Tennessee and Virginia
border. DCAPE values continue to range in the 1000-1200J/kg
suggesting a strong potential for downburst winds with any more
organized storms that develop. Given our effective shear has been
increasing to between 35 and 40 knots, there is reasonable amount
of confidence storms will continue to organize upstream as they
begin to track east through the area this evening. Freezing levels
remain quite high suggesting the large hail threat would be fairly
limited. However, some smaller hail may be possible with the
strongest storms. Tornado potential does not look as good early
on, but RAP 0-1 SRH values increase to between 100-150 by 00z,
suggesting the tornado potential could increase as we head into
the later evening hours. We will continue to watch these trends
through the evening.

The cold front will push on through by late evening or overnight,
with cooler and less humid air surging into the area behind the
front. A difficult forecast for late tonight, as any rainfall
combined with slower dry advection, could yield a period of fog
(perhaps dense) for a period late tonight. However, without
knowing how much rain or where the rain falls, hard to have much
confidence with fog at this time. It does appear possible some
lower clouds could also move in late which would limit the fog
threat. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday with
any clouds eroding through the day. Temperatures will be cooler,
generally around 80. With high pressure continuing to build in
Thursday night, a cooler night is anticipated with lows well into
the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 419 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

A trough axis will be intact across the eastern half of the U.S. to
start the period Friday. This trough will remain blocked and in
place throughout much of the extended period, strengthening and
developing an upper level low by the weekend. The ECMWF will keep
the upper level low in place across the region through the end of
the extended period, while the GFS will shift eastward bringing
upper level ridging into the period to start the new work week. This
trough will actually bring more northern stream air into the region,
so high temperatures will not be quite as warm as has been in recent
days, generally upper 70s and low 80s, warming into the low to mid
80s by the very end of the period.

Despite the trough, at the surface, high pressure will be in control
from Thursday through Saturday, with generally dry weather on tap. A
week frontal boundary will drop south into the state during the day
Sunday, and may bring some isolated and scattered precip to the
region. There is quite a bit of disparity at this point in the
models, though both the GFS and ECMWF have gone more dry for Monday.
The NBM is still going with some scattered precip in the far east,
but given the back and forth in the models, will stick with that at
this time. The NBM seems to be bridging the gap between the two
models for the remainder of the extended as the ECWMF brings the
upper level low into the Ohio Valley, and the GFS has the upper
level wave pushing into New England. Given how far out in the
forecast period we are, just kept with the NBM at this time. If the
ECMWF solution is correct, more rain chances are on tap for at least
the far eastern portion of the state through the end of the extended
forecast period. If the GFS is correct, however, we will remain
nearly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020

Gusty winds out of the south will continue this afternoon. A cold
front will shift east this evening with winds transitioning to the
southwest or west. The winds should remain gusty through the
evening hours. With the frontal passage, a broken line of showers
and storms is expected to develop and track east this evening.
Strong wind gusts are possible with any storms that impact the
area along with a brief period of MVFR cigs/visby. While a period
of VFR conditiosn will be seen in the wake of the frontal passage,
its possible better moisture moving into the region brings a
period of MVFR cigs later tonight into Thursday morning. However,
confidence is low on the developing of this cloud deck right now.
Any low clouds that do develop should exit by midday Thursday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
421 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-112330-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
421 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain are possible with
thunderstorms through early this evening. A tornado can also not
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Sunday through Tuesday,
during the afternoon and early evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of severe weather
to the Jackson weather office through early this evening.

KAS/JMW

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