Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
503 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 503 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2020

TS Arthur continues to spin off the Carolina/Virginia coast.
Stacked (aloft and at the surface) pressure spinning over the
Midwest produced some severe weather yesterday across portions of
the Upper Midwest. Seeing a few differences mainly in that the
system has a little better instability to work with today (MLCAPE
~1000 J/kg) but less shear in the lower levels with 0-1/0-3 km
SRH is generally less around 100 m2/s2 or less. Effective shear
is even lower. There is better shear north of the Ohio where 0-3
km SRH climbs a little north of 200 m2/s2. Better than expected
CAPE and lower shear suggests a bit more of a wind threat and a
little less of a tornado threat. So while a tornado could not be
ruled out, it should be understood any spin-ups would be weak and
short lived.

Cold frontal zone associated with the low over IL/IN stretches
southward and basically bisects the Commonwealth. This feature
will slide eastward and stall out over eastern Kentucky, thus
providing a focus for shower and at times thunderstorm activity.
Concerns are that training (storms moving repeatedly over the same
general areas and locations) will cause excessive runoff and flash
flooding. Latest QPF estimates show this system producing
widespread 1 to 3 inches across our forecast area. Locally higher
amounts will be possible. PWATs across the region remain in the
1.3 to 1.6 inch range through Tuesday...close to 2 standard
deviations higher as compared to climatology. Thus locally heavy
rainfall will remain a concern and will allow the Flash Flood
Watch to continue for most areas. Model solutions did suggest that
training will be a possibility well down into the Tennessee
Valley. Thus extended our current Flash Flood Watch earlier today
to include zones down to the state line.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2020

An upper level low will continue to rotate across the Lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. This will keep the weather unsettled at
least through end of the week. This means daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The clouds will also keep
temperatures below normal Wednesday before climbing back to near
normal for the remainder of the week. Then by this weekend the
models become more divergent on the pattern, with the GFS becoming
more zonal with embedded shortwaves leading to a wetter pattern
versus the ECMWF showing more of a ridge in place. Given this will
likely need to keep PoPs in the slight to chance range at best
given the uncertainty. The temperatures are expected to moderate
back above normal this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2020

Breaks in morning cloud cover has allowed thunderstorms to fire
across the area, at present in several narrow bands across the
eastern half of the Commonwealth. SJS in the far east has had
considerable cloud cover through the morning preventing areas
generally east of a Harlan to West Liberty line from destabilizing
enough for convective initiation. But that will change through
the course of the afternoon. With increased instability, strong
wind gusts become a little more of a concern. As the main band of
precipitation to our west rotates into eastern Kentucky we will
see our CIGS drop into MVFR/IFR territory. VSBYS will drop within
any thunderstorms as well, typically around 1SM. Otherwise,
expect south to southeast winds will between 5 to 10 kts through
much of the period, but a bit less for valley locations.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>117-119.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
407 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-109-
111>117-192315-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Wolfe-Magoffin-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-
Clay-Leslie-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Campton,
Salyersville, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes,
Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, and Hyden
407 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 193 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible today through this evening. Some
storms will contain locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to
flash flooding. Additionally, a few of the storms this afternoon
and early evening could produce damaging wind gusts. A short
lived, weak tornado can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday, with flash flooding a
continued threat.

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible at times from
Thursday through Sunday, mainly each afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for excessive rainfall today
through Tuesday.

KYZ107-110-119-192315-
Johnson-Floyd-Martin-
Including the cities of Paintsville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
and Inez
407 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible today through this evening. Some
storms will contain locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to
flash flooding. Additionally, a few of the storms this afternoon
could strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday, with flash flooding a
continued threat.

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible at times from
Thursday through Sunday, mainly each afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for excessive rainfall today
through Tuesday.

KYZ118-120-192315-
Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
407 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible today through this evening. Some
storms will contain locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to
minor flooding of low lying areas. Additionally, a few of the
storms this afternoon could produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday, with minor flooding of low
lying areas a continued threat.

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible at times from
Thursday through Sunday, mainly each afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for excessive rainfall today
through Tuesday.

RAY/DJ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
615 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

KYZ068-079-080-182245-
Rockcastle-Laurel-Pulaski-
615 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LAUREL...
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI AND SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

At 615 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Bloss, or 12
miles south of Mount Vernon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Wood Creek Lake, Pongo, Spiro, Lamero, Wabp, Hansford,
Valley Oak, Mershons, Hazel Patch, Pine Hill, Camp Wildcat, Wellhope,
Sand Hill, Billows, Grade, Burr, Maretburg, Gauley and Shopville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3701 8432 3708 8452 3738 8439 3729 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 204DEG 23KT 3718 8435

JMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
633 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

KYZ068-069-182300-
Jackson-Rockcastle-
633 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON
AND NORTHERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

At 633 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Bummer, or
near Mount Vernon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Boone, Donaro, Morrill, Bummer, Threelinks, Robinet,
Hiatt, Kerby Knob, Waneta, Horse Lick, Roundstone, Clover Bottom,
Lake Linville, Climax, Renfro Valley, Disputanta, Brazil, Shirley and
Sandgap.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3748 8441 3748 8437 3754 8435 3753 8430
      3752 8430 3751 8426 3753 8423 3752 8420
      3756 8415 3757 8402 3755 8398 3730 8416
      3730 8418 3729 8418 3738 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 211DEG 23KT 3744 8427

JMW