Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
903 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020

Earlier convection has generally diminished, although a few cells
have popped up along a mesoscale boundary aligned from north
central Kentucky to northeast Kentucky. This boundary is trying to
shift northeast, as evident on IR satellite. Further south, an
outflow boundary is arced across eastern Kentucky. In between the
two, temperatures have cooled off into the upper 50s and lower
60s, with readings still in the mid 70s across the I-75 corridor.
Closer to the I-64 corridor, temperatures are in the upper 60s,
having recovered a bit from the early afternoon convection.
Upstream, deeper convection is starting to congeal into more of a
line from central Indiana down into south central Illinois. Wind
gusts of 60+kts have been reported in the more intense part of
this line. This still looks to reach our doorstep by around
midnight or slightly thereafter. Damaging winds will be the main
severe threat; however, will have to watch any linear segments
that can interact with the leftover outflow boundary, leading to a
localized better tornado threat. For now, have freshened up the
PoP trends through this evening, allowing for a diminishment of
the isolated coverage, before ramping up to categorical PoPs as
the line moves into the area. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 602 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020

A stalled frontal boundary was laid out east/west in southern IN
and near the OH/KY border eastward into WV. After clouds broke up
just south of the front today, lack of a cap and sufficient
heating allowed for thunderstorm development. These storms
stretched from Estill County to Pike County late this afternoon.
They will continue moving to the east southeast and should
end/exit the area early this evening. A cold front will move in
from the northwest late tonight. Thunderstorm are currently
erupting ahead of this front over the mid Mississippi Valley. Very
dry mid levels with steep lapse rates are expected as these storms
move into the JKL forecast area ahead of the front, with a decent
amount of wind aloft as well. With linear forcing, a squall line
is likely, with wind being a particular threat. However, the
potential for hail or isolated tornadoes will also need to be
monitored. Only some lingering showers are in the forecast early
thursday in the southeast portion of the area, with clearing
following for the entire area.

Much colder air will arrive behind the front on Thursday and
Thursday night. A shortwave aloft will also pivot through a
deepening eastern CONUS upper trough on Thursday night. This is
expected to bring another increase in clouds, and potentially some
showers with our steep low-mid level lapse rates expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 453 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020

High pressure will build into the region on Friday and center
itself over the area Friday night. A dry and cold airmass will
remain,setting the stage for a hard freeze Friday night for many
areas. Lows could easily reach the mid 20s in most valley
locations with even ridgetops into the low 30s. Would have
probably gone with a freeze watch today, but given the ongoing
severe threat, opted to hold off as its still 5 periods out.
However, models are in decent agreement on this freeze potential.

As the high slides east over the weekend, the airmass will
moderate with milder temperatures returning to the area. An area
of low pressure will track across the Ohio valley region on Sunday
into Monday, with isentropic ascent ramping up across the region.
This will yield a wet Easter with periods of light to at times
moderate rain. The ECMWF continues to show heavy rain potential
Sunday evening, but the GFS with a slightly different low track
keeps more of a southeast wind in place with more of a rain
shadow. The amount of rain will be driven by the exact track of
this system, so quite a bit of uncertainty does exist. Either way,
Easter into Sunday night looks very wet. As this system departs,
a frontal boundary may stall over the region into the early half
of next week, keeping some clouds and maybe light precipitation
around into at least Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday. The bigger
story going into next week will be the much cooler weather and if
the clouds and precipitation ever pull out with a ridge moving in,
we could be set up for another freeze or frost at some point later
next week. However, uncertainty is pretty high beyond Sunday at
this time, so will stay close to the blended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 903 PM EDT WED APR 8 2020

VFR conditions will hold on through around 04z, before an intense
line of thunderstorms marches across the area between 04 and 08z.
This line will bring temporary MVFR or worse conditions, with wind
gusts of 40+kts at the leading edge of the line. A cold front
will follow, with ceilings dropping to MVFR, before scattering
out by the mid-morning hours on Thursday. Outside of
thunderstorms, surface winds will increase to 10 kts out of the
southwest, before shifting to the west northwest behind the front.
On Thursday, deeper mixing will allow for west to northwest winds
of 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of 15 to 25 kts at times.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

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