Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Jackson, KY

802 
WGUS73 KJKL 250106
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
906 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

KYC071-250116-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200525T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Floyd KY-
906 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR FLOYD COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM
EDT...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3737 8266 3729 8273 3732 8275 3735 8276
      3742 8276 3741 8283 3746 8283 3748 8290
      3749 8291 3754 8288 3757 8290 3764 8291
      3767 8294 3769 8294 3773 8282 3741 8261

$$

KAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
459 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020

Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge extended into the
southeastern Conus from a center east of the Bahamas. A weak
disturbance is moving across the Lower OH Valley around this
ridge in south to south southwest flow between the ridge and an
upper level trough that extends south through the Rockies and into
the western portions of the Plains. The region currently is in
the warm sector behind a warm front that crossed the area on
Saturday and Saturday evening. Moderate instability developed
across the region prior to shower and thunderstorm development
though shear is weak and storm movements have been slow with many
of the cells that have developed outflowing and leading to
development futher downstream or to the east and northeast. A warm
and moist airmass is in place across the region with PW near 1.6
inches while sfc dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 60s.

Through early this evening, any storms will produce locally heavy
rain and possibly gusty winds and pea size hail. Tonight, the
disturbance moving around the upper level ridge will move north
into IN and IL this evening with the upper level ridge axis
remaining east and northeast of the area. An upper level trough
will continue moving east from the Rockies with the axis reaching
the Plains later tonight and on Monday. This trough axis will move
slowly east and extend through the Plains to end the period. The
axis of the ridge will move further east through the period with
the ridge reorganizing over the mid Atlantic states.

A warm and moist airmass will persist through the period. Clouds
should scatter out this evening and overnight as convection
dissipates. This will set the stage for fog development, mainly
in the valleys. Convection cannot be ruled out completely at any
time, but will peak diurnally on Monday. MLCAPE should be
generally less than 2000 J/kg while bulk shear should be about
10KT on average. PW will be near the 1.5 inch mark. What
convection does develop should be slow moving with locally heavy
rain and perhaps gusty winds and/or small hail. Convection should
dissipate again toward sunset with valley fog favored on Monday
night.

Temperatures will remain above normal during the short term period
with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs on Monday in the mid to
upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020

Warm and muggy conditions will continue in the extended period,
with primarily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms expected
Tuesday and Wednesday. This pattern will begin to change a bit
Thursday night, as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. Showers and storms will be more persistent and a bit
more widespread Thursday night and Friday, as a cold front pushes
through the region. The highest precipitation probabilities should
occur on Friday during frontal passage. The rain will taper off
Friday night, but will showers and a few storms will linger across
the southern portions of the area Friday night through Sunday, as
the front stalls and drifts north and south through the upper
Tennessee valley. Daily highs will be in the low to mid 80s to
start, but we will see cooler highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
to end the period, as cooler air seeps into the area behind the
departed cold front Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Nightly lows
will be in the low to mid 60s the first few nights of the
extended, but will fall into the upper 50s over the upcoming
weekend, as cooler air makes it way into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020

Even with an upper level ridge in place from the Bahamas into the
southeast Conus, a disturbance moving around the ridge is
combining with daytime heating for isolated to scattered convection
developing across the area. This convection should generally
dissipate during the 23Z to 3Z window. Heavy  with some of the
stronger storms, in addition to lowering of VIS and CIGs. Once
convection ceases overnight, clouds should begin to scatter out.
Fog will develop overnight, especially in valleys near where
heavier rain falls through this evening. LIFR may occurring
deeper valleys, but there is still some uncertainty as to how much
impacts will be experienced at the TAF sites as the fog may lift
to these terminals and opted to continue with a few hour of MVFR
between 8Z and 13Z. Included a few hours of VCTS at the TAF sites
through around 0Z with prevailing VFR. Any direct impact from a
thunderstorm will result in IFR or lower for a time. Fog should
lift and dissipate by 1330Z with cumulus development late in the
period once again near 16Z Winds will be generally be light during
the period, under 10 kts, except for stronger gusts up to 30KT in
any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
436 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-252345-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
436 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This evening and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Monday through Saturday,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

JMW/HAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

KYZ085-087-241900-
Whitley-Bell-
210 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 210 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lot, or 9 miles
south of Williamsburg. The storm is nearly stationary.

Expect torrential rain with these nearly stationary thunderstorms.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are also possible with
these storm.

Locations impacted include...
Williamsburg, Bon, Dixie, Siler, Ayers, Gatliff, Frakes, Emlyn,
Packard, Lucky, Wilkerson, Red Ash, Lot, Pearl, Verne, Pleasant View,
Suttons Mill, Yaden, Saxton and Polly Camp.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3659 8422 3662 8424 3678 8418 3666 8386
      3659 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 203DEG 3KT 3660 8410

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
251 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

KYZ085>087-241945-
Whitley-Knox-Bell-
251 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BELL...CENTRAL
KNOX AND SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 249 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Kayjay, or 8
miles west of Pineville, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Torrential rain is occurring from this cluster of thunderstorms.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are also possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Barbourville, Pineville, Artemus, Swan Lake, Clate, Birdseye,
Barnyard, Gausdale, King, Blanche, Girdler, Rella, Clear Creek
Springs, Wasioto, Avis, Siler, Dewitt, Frakes, Flat Lick and Himyar.

Torrential rainfall occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3662 8387 3667 8405 3698 8387 3686 8357
      3671 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 207DEG 8KT 3675 8384

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

KYZ112-242000-
Breathitt-
335 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BREATHITT COUNTY...

At 334 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sewell, or near
Jackson, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Simpson, Keck, Rock Lick, Vancleve, Bays, Moct, Sewell, Taulbee,
Mountain Valley, Stevenson and Wilhurst.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3767 8328 3767 8324 3755 8324 3762 8345
      3765 8344 3766 8343 3768 8330 3768 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 270DEG 16KT 3764 8340

KAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
346 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

KYZ112-242015-
Breathitt-
346 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BREATHITT COUNTY...

At 346 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Noctor, or over
Jackson, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Sikes, Noctor, Wilstacy, Haginsville, Fivemile, Lunah,
Stevenson, Portsmouth, Smith Branch and Press.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3756 8342 3761 8341 3757 8315 3747 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 291DEG 20KT 3758 8334

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
558 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW CONFLUENCE        37.27N 83.40W
05/24/2020                   LESLIE             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            WILDER BRANCH ROAD CLOSED TO DUE FLOODING.
            EM DIRECTOR AND DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
            IN ROUTE TO THE AREA.

&&

KAS