Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Jackson, KY

399 
WGUS73 KJKL 210036
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
836 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

KYC013-095-210042-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-200821T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harlan KY-Bell KY-
836 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN AND SOUTHEASTERN
BELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Harlan County Dispatch reported that there were only minor water 
issues in the Wallins Creek area, but no flooding actually occurred. 
Bell County dispatch also report no problems as a result of heavy 
rain earlier this evening. In addition, the heavy rain has ended. 
Therefore, flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat and the 
Flash Flood Warning is cancelled. 

LAT...LON 3689 8353 3689 8347 3688 8346 3689 8345
      3689 8341 3690 8322 3678 8322 3672 8325
      3670 8334 3667 8343 3667 8351 3664 8358

$$

RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
512 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 512 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2020

The latest surface map features broad low pressure near the
central Gulf Coast, with an inverted surface trough aligned
northeast through the Tennessee Valley and into southeastern
Kentucky. Aloft, a blocky long wave pattern is in place, with high
pressure centered near the Desert Southwest, with ridging
extending northward along the Rockies. Troughing is aligned from
the eastern Great Lakes down to the Gulf of Mexico, with an upper
level low churning across the lower Mississippi Valley. Convection
is ongoing across portions of southeastern Kentucky and into
Tennessee this afternoon, with outflow spreading northward with
time. Temperatures currently range from the upper 60s and lower
70s in rain-cooled air, to the low and mid 80s where less clouds
reside.

The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the
lower Mississippi Valley low pressure system nudging northeast
with time. This will bring an influx of moisture, along with bouts
of forcing, as short wave energy ejects out from the low center.
For tonight, convection will diminish into this evening, as we
lose instability. Mid and high level clouds do look to thicken
overnight, mitigating better areas of fog, as well as allowing for
more uniform temperatures. Lows will be in the mid 60s, although
some lower 60s could be possible within more sheltered locations
nearer the I-64 corridor, where clouds will be thinner initially
through the evening. Short wave energy looks to move in from the
Tennessee Valley on Friday. Given the better moisture and forcing
in place, likely to categorical PoPs seems justified. Locally
heavy rainers will be possible, given the higher freezing levels
and more sluggish storm movement. Highs will range from the upper
70s to lower 80s. The short wave will dampen as it moves into the
Ohio Valley through Friday evening. As we lose heating, expect
the convection to gradually diminish across the area. Depending on
clearing overnight, fog will be more prevalent, following a day
of more widespread activity. Lows will generally be in the mid
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 512 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2020

Saturday sees our area situated under the influence of an upper
level low that hangs around for most of Sunday, before gradually
weakening and lifting out to the east through Monday. As we
progress further into the workweek, higher heights begin to build
in and remain in place through Wednesday and much of Thursday,
although there is a bit more uncertainty this far out. The models
are in fair agreement over the general pattern where the ridge
starts to erode, as a trough pushes south and east, though details
such as timing and amplitude see a greater spread among
solutions. Given this uncertainty and distance out in the forecast
period, the NBM solution was mostly maintained with minimal
edits.

An area of high pressure at the surface remains in place out to the
east and over the Atlantic, keeping low level flow from a more
southwesterly direction, aiding in moisture advection into the area.
The combination of more moisture and our position under the upper
level low on Saturday and Sunday makes for higher chances for
showers and storms with the best chance for more widespread rain
being on Saturday. Chances for rain start to decrease going into
Monday as upper level ridging builds, and Tuesday onward remains
fairly dry with only minimal chances, primarily in the southeast.
The showers and storms help to keep temperatures lower over the
weekend with highs forecast in the low 80s. However, the workweek
sees daily increases in temperatures, eventually topping out in
the upper 80s by Thursday, with a few locations possibly reaching
90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2020

Expect VFR conditions to generally prevail across the area through
the period. Scattered convection will threaten south of I-64
through early this evening, before dissipating. Any direct hit
from a thunderstorm will result in temporary IFR conditions. Clouds
will thicken and lower tonight, which should keep the fog
formation in check. Convection will threaten once again on Friday,
especially by the afternoon hours. Winds will average around 5
kts or less.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...HAS/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
436 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-211100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
436 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible, generally southeast of the I-64
corridor through early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Friday through
Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The
greatest probability for storms during this period will be on
Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GEOGERIAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
339 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

KYZ113-202015-
Knott-
339 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN KNOTT COUNTY...

At 338 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Yellow
Mountain, or near Hindman, moving northwest at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hindman, Elmrock, Leburn, Vest, Yellow Mountain, Soft Shell and
Garner.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3737 8290 3733 8298 3744 8310 3750 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 147DEG 5KT 3740 8299

GEOGERIAN